考虑疫苗效力差异的封闭场馆疫情传播分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.07.2366

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (7): 121-127.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.07.2366

考虑疫苗效力差异的封闭场馆疫情传播分析

方丹辉¹^,²(), 周敏¹^,², 洪荭³^,^**(), 李庭洋¹^,²

1 武汉理工大学中国应急管理研究中心,湖北武汉 430070
2 武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉 430070
3 武汉理工大学管理学院,湖北武汉 430070

收稿日期:2022-02-24 修回日期:2022-05-20 出版日期:2022-07-28
通讯作者:
** 通信作者：洪荭(1976—),女,湖北浠水人,博士,副教授,主要从事风险管控与创新管理、信息质量与资源配置方面的研究。E-mail: whhw02@163.com。
作者简介:
作者简介：方丹辉 (1976—),女,湖北荆门人,博士,副教授,主要从事公共安全与应急管理、信息系统等方面的研究。E-mail: lizdy@whut.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划“科技冬奥”重点项目(2021YFF0306000)

Analysis of epidemic transmission in closed venues considering difference of vaccine effectiveness

FANG Danhui¹^,²(), ZHOU Min¹^,², HONG Hong³^,^**(), LI Tingyang¹^,²

1 China Research Center for Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430070, China
2 School of Safety Science and Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430070, China
3 School of Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430070, China

Received:2022-02-24 Revised:2022-05-20 Published:2022-07-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为使闭环管理的赛事场馆平稳运行,预防疫情传播风险,鉴于经典传染病模型未考虑不同人群疫苗效力的差别和场馆实际情况,提出一种考虑高低防护人群且将感染者归入移出者的易感染者-潜伏者-移出者(SER)传染病模型;以Delta病毒为例,通过2021年7月扬州疫情数据拟合部分模型参数;选取冰壶比赛场景,考虑疫情防控和赛事举办效果平衡,将管控措施分为4个等级,运用SER模型仿真推演3种疫情输入情况。结果表明:若未制定合理的管控措施,病毒将会快速传播;在为期8天的比赛中,最多会出现数百名感染病例。针对不同输入情况,通过不同等级的管控措施,包括减少人群接触,提高核酸筛查力度,加强赛事运行控制,感染率可下降90%。

关键词: 传染病模型, 疫苗效力差异, 封闭场馆, 疫情传播, 管控措施

Abstract:

In order to make the closed-loop managed event venues run smoothly and prevent the risk of epidemic transmission, in view of the fact that the classical infectious disease model does not consider the difference of vaccine efficacy among different populations and the actual situation of the venues, a Susceptible-Exposed-Removed (SER) infectious disease model considering high and low protective populations and removing infected persons wss proposed..Taking Delta virus as an example, some model parameters were fitted by Yangzhou epidemic data in July 2021. In this paper, The curling competition scenario was selected, and the control measures were divided into four levels considering the balance of epidemic prevention and control and the effect of the event., and the SER model was used to simulate and deduce the three epidemic input conditions. The results show that the virus spread rapidly without reasonable control measures. In the eight-day competition, there are up to hundreds of infection cases. According to different input conditions, the infection rate can be reduced by 90% through different levels of control measures, including reducing population contact, improving nucleic acid screening, and strengthening the operation control of events.

Key words: infectious disease model, vaccine effectiveness difference, closed venue, epidemic spread, control measures

方丹辉, 周敏, 洪荭, 李庭洋. 考虑疫苗效力差异的封闭场馆疫情传播分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(7): 121-127.

FANG Danhui, ZHOU Min, HONG Hong, LI Tingyang. Analysis of epidemic transmission in closed venues considering difference of vaccine effectiveness[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(7): 121-127.

图/表 9

图1

图2

表1

模型参数取值范围

参数	定义	取值
$k 1$	低防护潜伏者接触环境病毒浓度	(0.2,0.3)
$k 2$	高防护潜伏者接触环境病毒浓度	(0.2,0.3)
$b 1$	低防护易感者接触环境感染概率	(0.4,0.5)
$b 2$	高防护易感者接触环境感染概率	(0.2,0.3)
$α$	潜伏者转为感染者(移出)概率	0.25

表1

图3

表2

推演模型参数

参数	N	$S 1$	$S 2$	n	$k 1$
取值	1 800	900	900	10	0.25
参数	$k 2$	$b 1$	$b 2$	$α$	—
取值	0.2	0.45	0.2	0.25	—

表2

表3

图4

表4

管控措施分级与参数影响

管控等级	管控措施	模型参数变化
一级管控 (常规)	赛事相关人员需要2天1次核酸检测,每天测量1次体温。密切接触人员在奥运村房间自我隔离14天,每天进行1次核酸检测,每天测量1次体温。若密切接触者有相关比赛,要求全程佩戴N95口罩(无呼吸阀)参赛。观众在全程疫苗接种满14天以及提供48 h的核酸检测报告后,仍可以进场观看比赛	常规
二级管控	赛事相关人员需要一天1次核酸检测,每天测量1次体温。密切接触人员需要统一在奥运村隔离14天,每天进行2次核酸检测,每天测量2次体温。若密切接触者有相关比赛,将会取消参赛资格。比赛场馆内将不接纳观众观赛,参赛运动员只允许随从3名赛事相关人员	$α$ = 1/3 N = 1 000 n = 8
三级管控	赛事相关人员需要一天2次核酸检测,一天2次体温测量。密切接触人员需要在奥运村外统一地点隔离14天,每天2次核酸检测,一天2次体温监测,参赛人员只允许随从1名赛事相关人员。所有的采访都采取线上提问题,线上回答	$α$ = 1/2.7 N = 1 000 n= 6
四级管控	赛事相关人员需要一天2次核酸检测, 参赛人员只允许随从1名赛事相关人员。所有的采访都采取线上提问题,线上回答。若累计8人核酸阳性,暂停比赛,所有相关人员进行隔离并检测数日	$α$ = 1/2.7 N = 800 n= 6

表4

图5

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输入级别	移出者总数	低防护力潜伏者	高防护力潜伏者	总感染人数
Ⅰ	29	40	18	87
Ⅱ	52	68	31	151
Ⅲ	102	124	59	285

考虑疫苗效力差异的封闭场馆疫情传播分析

Analysis of epidemic transmission in closed venues considering difference of vaccine effectiveness

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