考虑结伴行为与情绪感染的人员疏散模型

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.2286

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (11): 126-132.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.11.2286

考虑结伴行为与情绪感染的人员疏散模型

霍非舟¹(), 范丹丹¹, 刘昶¹, 马亚萍¹^,^**(), 吕紫含¹^,², 李梦令³

¹ 武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉 430070
² 武汉理工大学襄阳示范区,湖北襄阳 537134
³ 民机火灾科学与安全工程四川省重点实验室,四川广汉 618307

收稿日期:2023-05-15 修回日期:2023-08-16 出版日期:2023-11-28
通讯作者:
**马亚萍(1989—),女,河南郑州人,博士,副教授,主要从事人员疏散等公共安全与应急管理相关研究。E-mail: mayp18@whut.edu.cn。
作者简介:
霍非舟 (1987—),男,河南周口人,博士,副教授,主要从事人员疏散、风险评估等方面的研究。 E-mail: huofz@whut.edu.cn。
马亚萍副教授
李梦令副研究员
基金资助:
民机火灾科学与安全工程四川省重点实验室项目(MZ2022KF07); 国家自然科学基金资助(51808422); 国家自然科学基金资助(52204233); 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2022IVA127)

Study on evacuation model considering companion behavior and emotion contagion

HUO Feizhou¹(), FAN Dandan¹, LIU Chang¹, MA Yaping¹^,^**(), LYU Zihan¹^,², LI Mengling³

¹ School of Safety Science and Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430070, China
² Wuhan University of Technology Xiangyang Demonstration Zone, Xiangyang Hubei 537134, China
³ Civil Aircraft Fire Science and Safety Engineering Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Guanghan Sichuan 618307, China

Received:2023-05-15 Revised:2023-08-16 Published:2023-11-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探究结伴行为与情绪感染对人员疏散的影响,将开放性-责任感-外向性-利他性-神经质(OCEAN)模型中的神经质引入易感-感染-易感(SIS)传染病模型,根据行人是否结伴分别构建独立行人与结伴行人的情绪感染模型,与元胞自动机模型相结合进行疏散仿真模拟;并讨论人员密度、结伴比例、情绪阈值、自衰减速率、亲密度等因素对疏散过程的影响特征。研究结果表明:情绪感染在一定程度上会降低疏散效率;行人总体疏散时间与密度呈正相关;疏散时间随结伴比例的增加呈现先增加后降低的趋势,在结伴比例为0.4~0.6时达到峰值,这种趋势受双重因素的影响;情绪阈值是实现平静情绪与恐慌情绪相互转化的临界值,随着情绪阈值的增大,疏散时间逐渐降低,当情绪阈值超过0.3后,疏散时间的变化趋于平缓;情绪自衰减速率与亲密度是影响情绪衰减的主要因素,情绪自衰减速率越大,亲密度越高,情绪强度的衰减越快,且情绪自衰减速率的影响效果更显著。

关键词: 结伴行为, 情绪感染, 疏散模型, 易感-感染-易感(SIS), 传染病模型

Abstract:

In order to study influence of companion behavior and emotion contagion on evacuation, combining of the Openness-Conscientiousness-Extroversion-Agreeableness-Neuroticism (OCEAN) model with SIS model, emotion contagion models of independent pedestrians and companion pedestrians were respectively constructed according to whether pedestrians walk in groups. Then, the emotion contagion model was combined with the cellular automata model to analyze the impacts of personnel density, companion ratio, emotional threshold, decay rate and intimacy on the evacuation process. The results show that emotion contagion reduces the evacuation efficiency, and the evacuation time increases with the increase of density. The evacuation time first increases and then decreases with the increase of the companion ratio, and reaches its peak when the companion ratio is in range of 0.4 to 0.6, and the trend is influenced by two factors. The emotional threshold is the critical value of the mutual transition between calm and panic. As the emotional threshold increases, the evacuation time gradually decreases. When the emotional threshold exceeds 0.3, the change in evacuation time tends to stabilize. The rate of emotional self-decay and intimacy are the main factors affecting emotional decay. The greater the rate of emotional self-decay and the higher the intimacy, the faster the decline of emotional value, and the effect of emotional self-decay rate is more significant.

Key words: companion behavior, emotion contagion, evacuation model, susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS), infectious diseases model

霍非舟, 范丹丹, 刘昶, 马亚萍, 吕紫含, 李梦令. 考虑结伴行为与情绪感染的人员疏散模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(11): 126-132.

HUO Feizhou, FAN Dandan, LIU Chang, MA Yaping, LYU Zihan, LI Mengling. Study on evacuation model considering companion behavior and emotion contagion[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(11): 126-132.

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考虑结伴行为与情绪感染的人员疏散模型

Study on evacuation model considering companion behavior and emotion contagion

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