中国民航典型征候的趋势研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.07.1459

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为研究中国民航征候数量的变化趋势,根据中国民用航空安全信息统计报告,收集中国民航2000—2020年的5 591条征候数据;通过扩展的迪克富勒(ADF)检验、恩格尔-格兰杰(EG)检验等时间序列分析技术,分析中国民航总征候数量与7种典型征候数量的趋势特征;结合行业飞行小时(FH)数据,探究总征候数量、不同典型征候数量与飞行小时数的长期均衡关系。结果表明:2000—2020年,全行业的飞行小时数与总征候数总体呈现增长趋势,为非平稳的单位根过程;在 7种典型征候中,鸟击、雷击、撞障碍物和危险接近的数量具有非平稳特征,且前3种征候呈上升趋势。发动机空中停车、冲、偏出跑道、非起落架部位接地的数量为趋势平稳过程,并呈现下降趋势;总征候及鸟击、雷击、撞障碍物等具有上升趋势的典型征候和飞行小时同阶单整,雷击征候数与飞行小时数之间存在稳定的长期均衡关系即协整关系,协整回归模型显示飞行小时数变动1%,雷击征候数量也将随之同向变动2.059%。

关键词: 民航, 典型征候, 飞行小时, 平稳性分析, 协整关系

Abstract:

To study the trend of the number of civil aviation incidents in China, this study collected 5 591 incident data from 2000 to 2020 through the China civil aviation safety information statistical report, and analyzed the trends and characteristics of total incidents and seven typical incidents by using time series analysis techniques such as Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and Engle-Granger (EG) test, and explored the long-term equilibrium relationship between incidents and flight hours. The results show that the number of flight hours and the total number of incidents show an overall increasing trend from 2000 to 2020, which is a non-stationary unit root process. Among the seven typical incidents, bird strike, lightning strike, obstacle hit and near miss are non-stationary, and the first three incidents have an increasing trend. Engine in flight shutdown, runway overrun/excursion and non-landing gear grounding have a stable decreasing trend. The total incidents and the typical incidents of bird strike, lightning strike, and obstacle hit are the same as the integration order of flight hours. There is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between lightning strikes and flight hours, which is called co-integration relationship. The co-integration regression model shows that a 1% change in the number of flight hours will be followed by a 2.059% change in the number of lightning strikes in the same direction.

Key words: civil aviation, typical incident, flight hour, stationarity analysis, co-integration relationship

何鹏, 孙瑞山. 中国民航典型征候的趋势研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(7): 133-139.

HE Peng, SUN Ruishan. Study on trend of typical incidents of civil aviation in China[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(7): 133-139.

图/表 7

表1

中国民航的征候标准

标准	起止时间	相较上一版标准的主要变化
MH 2001—1996	1996.01—2004.06	—
MH 2001—2004	2004.07—2008.12	在飞行事故征候的基础上划分了严重飞行事故征候和训练飞行事故征候
MH/T 2001—2008	2009.01—2012.02	进一步将事故征候划分为运输航空飞行事故征候、运输航空事故征候、通用航空事故征候、航空器地面事故征候;增加了航空器地面事故征候的条款
MH/T 2001—2011	2012.03—2013.02	合并、修订、增加运输航空一般事故征候的相关条款,按照严重程度,修改了跑道入侵的定义;通用航空事故征候中增加了双向陆空通信联系中断的内容
MH/T 2001—2013	2013.03—2015.08	增加运输航空一般事故征候条款,如平行跑道同时仪表运行时,航空器进入非侵入区,导致其他航空器避让;修订通用航空事故征候条款;增加运输航空严重事故征候条款,如航空器未按规定进行除、防冰等除、防污染作业起飞
MH/T 2001—2015	2015.09—2018.12	新增了运输航空事故征候的条款,如程序管制区域的间隔要求、航空器超过最大允许起飞重量起飞;增加通用航空事故征候条款,如在起飞或初始爬升过程中明显未达到预定性能
MH/T 2001—2018	2019.01—2021.09	将航空器地面事故征候修改为运输航空地面事故征候;完善了事故征候的判定标准,如减小运输航空严重事故征候中的危险接近间隔;增加《航空器小于规定雷达管制间隔事件危险指数评价方法》、《可控飞行撞地的危险指数计算方法》作为附录A和附录B
AC-395-AS-01	2021.10至今	将术语“事故征候”改为“征候”;增加“非法飞行”、“飞行中”等术语定义;增加运输航空严重征候条款,如飞行中遇有颠簸或机组操纵等原因导致3(含)人以上人员轻伤;修订、合并运输航空一般征候部分条款、运输航空地面征候部分条款;增加附录C《民用航空器征候样例清单》

表1

表2

图1

图2

表3

征候序列的拟合模型与ADF检验结果

变量	最优模型	模型构成	t 值	显著性
lnINC	Trend, lag(1)	$Δ l n I N C i = 1.579 + 0.040 i - 0.369 l n I N C i - 1 + 0.460 Δ l n I N C i - 1$	-2.023	0.553
lnBDS	Trend, lag(0)	$Δ l n B D S i = 2.516 + 0.105 i - 0.711 l n B D S i - 1$	-2.803	0.212
lnLTS	Trend, lag(1)	$Δ l n L T S i = 0.311 + 0.100 i - 0.499 l n L T S i - 1 - 0.335 Δ l n L T S i - 1$	-1.517	0.787
lnENG	Trend, lag(4)	$Δ l n E N G i = 8.273 - 0.092 i - 2.451 l n E N G i - 1 + 1.331 Δ l n E N G i - 1 + 1.285 Δ l n E N G i - 2 + 1.080 Δ l n E N G i - 3 + 0.958 Δ l n E N G i - 4$	-4.008^**	0.031
lnRNW	Trend, lag(2)	$Δ l n R N W i = 3.410 - 0.040 i - 1.821 l n R N W i - 1 + 0.688 Δ l n R N W i - 1 + 0.461 Δ l n R N W i - 2$	-3.806^**	0.041
lnOBS	Trend, lag(4)	$Δ l n O B S i = - 1.289 + 0.135 i - 0.131 l n O B S i - 1 - 0.740 Δ l n O B S i - 1 - 0.460 Δ l n O B S i - 2 - 0.642 Δ l n O B S i - 3 - 0.824 Δ l n O B S i - 4$	-0.304	0.981
lnGND	Trend, lag(0)	$Δ l n G N D i = 1.631 - 0.053 i - 1.122 l n G N D i - 1$	-3.362^*	0.095
lnNM	Drift, lag(2)	$Δ l n N M i = - 1.159 + 0.401 l n N M i - 1 - 1.271 Δ l n N M i - 1 - 0.953 Δ l n N M i - 2$	1.288	0.992

表3

表4

表5

Engle-Granger协整检验结果

线性回归				残差的ADF检验
因变量	回归方程	显著性	R²	t值	显著性
lnINC	$l n I N C = 0.873 l n F H$	0.000	0.895	-1.180	> 0. 1
lnBDS	$l n B D S = - 3.630 + 1.320 l n F H$	0.000	0.959	-2.067	> 0. 1
lnLTS	$l n L T S = - 10.405 + 2.059 l n F H$	0.000	0.906	-4.206^**	< 0.05
lnOBS	$l n O B S = 0.229 l n F H$	0.000	0.077	-2.870	> 0. 1

表5

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变量	最小值	最大值	均值	合计	标准差
FH/10⁴h	142.37	1 231.13	571.02	1 1991.49	345.48
INC	93	599	266.24	5 591	184.10
BDS	21	306	126.43	2 655	96.96
LTS	1	66	19.76	415	19.34
ENG	10	33	19.67	413	6.34
RNW	3	8	5.33	112	1.83
OBS	0	13	4.90	103	3.69
GND	0	5	2.61	55	1.77
NM	0	9	2.52	53	2.73