考虑洪涝灾害风险的县域应急避难场所选址模型

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.6850

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (4): 191-198.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.6850

考虑洪涝灾害风险的县域应急避难场所选址模型

宋英华¹^,²(), 韩保帅¹^,², 郭晨¹^,²^,^**()

¹ 武汉理工大学中国应急管理研究中心,湖北武汉 430070
² 武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉 430070

收稿日期:2023-12-11 修回日期:2024-01-23 出版日期:2024-04-28
通讯作者:
**郭晨(1989—),女,湖北武汉人,博士,副教授,主要从事战略与风险管理方面的研究。E-mail: guochen2016@126.com。
作者简介:
宋英华 (1962—),男,湖北武汉人,博士,教授,主要从事应急管理、项目管理研究。E-mail: song6688c@163.com。
基金资助:
国家社科基金重大项目资助(21&ZD127); 国家文化和旅游科技创新工程项目(20211g0085)

Location selection model of emergency shelter considering risk of flood disaster in county

SONG Yinghua¹^,²(), HAN Baoshuai¹^,², GUO Chen¹^,²^,^**()

¹ China Research Center for Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430070, China
² School of Safety Science and Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430070, China

Received:2023-12-11 Revised:2024-01-23 Published:2024-04-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提升应急避难场所在灾害管理过程中的服务水平,从洪涝灾害的视角出发,选取致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承载体脆弱性、防灾减灾能力4个指标,采用层次分析法(AHP)-熵权法模型,识别出洪涝灾害风险的空间分布,并将其风险值作为权重引入最小化未覆盖风险,同时,结合最小化加权疏散距离、最小化可达性差异,从公平性、效率性、均衡性视角,构建多目标避难场所选址模型;采用改进的非支配排序遗传算法 II(NSGA-II)求解模型,并以莆田市仙游县现有避难场所布局为例,验证模型。结果表明:对比现有的避难场所布局,优化后的布局方案中总疏散距离、未覆盖风险值及可达性差异性系数分别平均降低35.90%、61.47%、33.62%。

关键词: 洪涝灾害, 应急避难场所, 选址模型, 非支配排序遗传算法 II(NSGA-II), 层次分析法(AHP)-熵权法

Abstract:

In order to improve the service level of emergency refuge in the process of disaster management, from the perspective of flood disaster, four indexes were selected: risk of disaster causing factor, sensitivity of disaster-bearing environment, vulnerability of carrier and ability of disaster prevention and reduction. The spatial distribution of flood risk was identified through the AHP-entropy weight method model. Its risk value was introduced as a weight to minimize uncovered risk. Combined with minimizing the weighted evacuation distance and minimizing the accessibility difference, a multi-target shelter location selection model was constructed from the perspective of fairness, efficiency and balance. The improved NSGA-II algorithm was used to solve the model, and the existing shelter layout in Xianyou County, Putian City was used as an example for model verification. The results show that compared with the existing shelter layout, the total evacuation distance, uncovered risk value and accessibility difference coefficient in the optimized layout scheme are reduced by 35.90%, 61.47% and 33.62% respectively.

Key words: flood disaster, emergency shelters, location selection model, non-dominant sorting genetic algorithmⅡ(NSGA-II), analytic hierarchy process (AHP) -entropy weight method

中图分类号:

X915.5

宋英华, 韩保帅, 郭晨. 考虑洪涝灾害风险的县域应急避难场所选址模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(4): 191-198.

SONG Yinghua, HAN Baoshuai, GUO Chen. Location selection model of emergency shelter considering risk of flood disaster in county[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(4): 191-198.

图/表 5

表1

图1

图2

图3

表2

选址优化对比

目标函数	仙游县现有设施	方案1	方案2	方案3	方案4	方案5
$f 1$	645 453 495	391 539 500 (↓39.34%)	486 324 033 (↓24.65%)	376 145 459 (↓41.72%)	457 624 868 (↓29.10%)	354 926 977 (↓45.01%)
$f 2$	38.252 8	14.626 8 (↓61.76%)	18.802 7 (↓50.85%)	12.410 9 (↓67.56%)	11.775 3 (↓69.22%)	16.083 4 (↓57.95%)
$f 3$	2.030 8	1.138 1 (↓43.96%)	1.034 3 (↓49.07%)	1.222 9 (↓39.78%)	1.755 2 (↓13.57%)	1.590 0 (↓21.71%)

表2

参考文献 17

[1]	中国水旱灾害防御公报编写组. 《中国水旱灾害防御公报2020》概要[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2021, 31(11):26-32.
[2]	杜浩国, 林旭川, 张方浩, 等. 基于蚁群优化算法的应急避难场所选址模型研究[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2021, 30(2):89-101.
	DU Haoguo, LIN Xuchuan, ZhANG Fanghao, et al. Study on emergency refuge site selection model based on ant colony optimization algorithm[J]. Journal of Natural Disaster, 2021, 30(2): 89-101.
[3]	吕伟, 韩业凡, 周雯楠, 等. 避难场所适宜性评价及服务范围空间相关性分析[J]. 安全与环境学报, 2023, 23(3):694-703.
	LYU Wei, HAN Yefan, ZHOU Wennan, et al. Study on the spatial correlation between the suitability evaluation of emergency shelter and the service scope[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2023, 23(3): 694-703.
[4]	宋英华, 赵相成, 吕伟, 等. 考虑多因素影响的避难场所服务范围划分方法[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(5): 138-144. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.023
	SONG Yinghua, ZHAO Xiangcheng, LYU Wei, et al. Method for service scope division of emergency shelters considering multi-factors[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29 (5): 138-144. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.023
[5]	钟光淳, 翟国方, 陈伟, 等. 基于循环疏散分配的避难场所布局优化研究:以南京新街口为例[J]. 灾害学, 2022, 37(2):204-211.
	ZHONG Guangchun, ZHAI Guofang, CHEN Wei, et al. Optimization of shelter location in high-desnity urban area based on circular evacuation allocation: a case study in Xinjiekou district of Nanjing, China[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2022, 37(2):204-211.
[6]	陈鹏, 张硕, 刘晓静, 等. 基于居民视角的应急避难所优化配置研究[J]. 中国安全生产科学技术, 2019, 15(8): 44-50.
	CHEN Peng, ZHANG Shuo, LIU Xiaojing, et al. Research on optimal allocation of emergency shelter based on residents perspective[J]. Journal Safety Science and Technology, 2019, 15 (8): 44-50.
[7]	刘刚, 王威, 马东辉, 等. 考虑用地吸引度的避震疏散场所选择模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2016, 26(12): 169-174.
	LIU Gang, WANG Wei, MA Donghui, et al. Model of of evacuation model considering land attraction[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2016, 26 (12): 169-174.
[8]	ZHAO Xiujuan, XU Wei, MA Yunjia, et al. Relationships between evacuation population size, earthquake emergency shelter capacity, and evacuation time[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2017, 8(4): 457-470.
[9]	XU Wei, ZHAO Xiujuan, MA Yunjia, et al. A multi-objective optimization based method for evaluating earthquake shelter location-allocation[J]. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 2018, 9(1): 662-677.
[10]	RAHMAN M, CHEN Ningsheng, ISLAM M, et al. Location-allocation modeling for emergency evacuation planning with GIS and remote sensing: a case study of Northeast Bangladesh[J]. Geoscience Frontiers, 2021, 12(3): 175-191.
[11]	RIZEEI H M, PRADHAN B, SAHARKHIZ M A, et al. Allocation of emergency response centres in response to pluvial flooding-prone demand points using integrated multiple layer perceptron and maximum coverage location problem models[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2019, 38: DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101205.
[12]	WANG Fahui, TANG Quan. Planning toward equal accessibility to services: a quadratic programming approach[J]. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 2013, 40(2):195-212.
[13]	陆砚池, 方世明. 均衡和效率双重视角下武汉市主城区公园绿地空间布局优化研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2019, 28(1): 68-79.
	LU Yanchi, FANG Shiming. Study on the spatian distribution optimization of park green spaces in the main city of Wuhan from the perspective of both equilibrium and efficiency[J]. Resources and Environment of the Yangtze River Basin, 2019, 28(1): 68-79.
[14]	李睿, 王军, 李梦雅. 暴雨内涝情景下城市消防服务可达性的精细化评估[J]. 地理科学进展, 2022, 41(1):143-156. doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.01.013
	LI Rui, WANG Jun, LI Mengya. Fine-resolution evaluation of urban fire service accessibility under the impact of a 100-year pluvial flood[J]. Progress in Geography, 2022, 41(1): 143-156. doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.01.013
[15]	吴舒祺, 赵文吉, 王志恒, 等. 基于GIS的洪涝灾害风险评估及区划:以浙江省为例[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2020(6): 51-57.
	WU Shuqi, ZHAO Wenji, WANG Zhiheng, et al. Risk assessment and zoning of flood disaster based on GIS: a case study of Zhejiang Province[J]. China Rural Water and Hydropower, 2020(6): 51-57.
[16]	刘媛媛, 王绍强, 王小博, 等. 基于AHP_熵权法的孟印缅地区洪水灾害风险评估[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(8): 1892-1906. doi: 10.11821/dlyj020190679
	LIU Yuanyuan, WANG Shaoqiang, WANG Xiaobo, et al. Flood risk assessment in Bangladesh, India and Myanmar based on the AHP weight method and entropy weight method[J]. Geographic Research, 2020, 39(8): 1892-1906.
[17]	福建省地震局. 仙游县开展地震应急避难场所选址设计工作[EB/OL]. (2018-04-11). https://www.fjdzj.gov.cn/ar/2018041114000003.htm.

目标层	指标层指标	子指标层指标	权重
目标层	指标层指标	子指标层指标	AHP	熵权法	组合权重
仙游县洪涝风险评价	致灾因子危险性	月均降雨量	0.255 2	0.040 7	0.206 5
	致灾因子危险性	水体指数	0.127 6	0.014 8	0.102 0
	孕灾环境敏感性	坡度	0.052 7	0.016 5	0.044 5
	孕灾环境敏感性	数字高程	0.041 8	0.019 4	0.036 7
	承载体脆弱性	植被覆盖率	0.033 2	0.284 0	0.090 2
	承载体脆弱性	人口密度	0.260 6	0.354 9	0.282 0
	防灾减灾能力	地区脆弱人群比率	0.086 9	0.049 0	0.078 3
	防灾减灾能力	灯光	0.094 7	0.065 3	0.088 0
		区域疏散能力	0.047 3	0.155 4	0.071 8

考虑洪涝灾害风险的县域应急避难场所选址模型

Location selection model of emergency shelter considering risk of flood disaster in county

RichHTML

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 5

参考文献 17

相关文章 13

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	朱安峰, 范秀芳, 杜温瑞, 孙婉馨, 徐刚. 韧性视角下应急避难场所防灾减灾能力综合评价:以温州市瓯海区为例[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(5): 223-230.
[2]	杨丽娇, 刘岩, 蒋新宇. 基于加速失效时间模型的企业停产与恢复时间研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(6): 181-189.
[3]	周磊, 李前鹏, 李法朝. 考虑时间满意度的应急物资储备库选址模型与算法[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(3): 188-194.
[4]	李海辰, 冯文文, 张少恺, 王超, 张鹏, 雷晓辉. 城市洪涝灾害防御中的前沿信息技术应用[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(9): 137-143.
[5]	王喆, 孔维磊, 方丹辉, 段志飞. 基于贝叶斯网络的城镇洪涝应急情景推演研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(6): 182-188.
[6]	王海飙, 陈海超, 李蕊, 于贺, 赵天怡. 城市应急避难场所管理体系构建与应用^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(12): 153-159.
[7]	吕伟, 汪京辉, 赵相成, 徐一旻, 霍非舟, 李墨潇. 城市应急避难场所覆盖选择模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(12): 157-164.
[8]	张聆晔, 吕靖. 风险不确定的海上应急物资储备库选址[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(9): 173-180.
[9]	胡立伟, 何越人, 佘天毅, 孟玲, 杨锦青. 高速公路应急救援中心选址优化模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(5): 145-150.
[10]	肖俊华，侯云先. 综合多属性决策的区域救灾物资储备库选址模型研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2013, 23(7): 164-.
[11]	钱洪伟，尹香菊，佟艳. 基于制约因素的城市应急避难场所运行能力评价指标体系构建——以汶川地震时某城市应急避难场所为例[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2013, 23(6): 158-.
[12]	陈志芬，李强，王瑜，陈晋. 应急避难场所建设进度优化模型研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2010, 20(2): 160-.
[13]	陈志芬，李强，王瑜，陈晋. 基于有界数据包络分析(DEA)模型的应急避难场所效率评价[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2009, 19(11): 152-.