改进VIKOR方法下街道消防安全治理水平评估方法及应用

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.06.1684

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提升街道消防安全治理水平评估的科学性和准确性,提出一种基于Choquet积分的改进多准则妥协解排序法(VIKOR)方法。首先,从人员、建筑与设施、环境和管理4个维度构建评估指标体系,并引入概率犹豫模糊集表征专家评估信息的不确定性,获取指标评估值;然后,采用模糊测度分析指标间的交互关系,结合Choquet积分和Shapley值聚合指标信息、动态更新指标权重,并将其融入VIKOR决策框架,提出改进的VIKOR方法;最后,以4个街道为对象开展实例验证。结果表明:所提方法系统考虑了指标间交互关系及其对评价结果的影响,尤其在指标交互度高的情况下,能有效修正传统方法的排序偏差,准确评估街道消防安全治理水平,显著提高决策准确性。案例验证结果显示,D街道的消防安全治理水平最差,其次为A街道、B街道,C街道治理水平最高,这与街道实际火灾事故频率排序相一致,验证了该方法的可靠性。

关键词: 改进多准则妥协解排序法(VIKOR)方法, 街道消防安全治理水平, 评估方法, 2-可加模糊测度, Choquet积分

Abstract:

In order to enhance the scientific rigor and accuracy of street fire safety governance assessment, an improved VIKOR method based on the Choquet integral was proposed. First, an assessment indicator system was constructed from four dimensions: personnel, buildings and facilities, environment, and management. Then, probabilistic hesitant fuzzy sets were introduced to characterize the uncertainty in expert assessments and obtain indicator values. Next, a fuzzy measure was employed to analyze the interactions among indicators, while the Choquet integral and the Shapley value were utilized to aggregate indicator information and dynamically update indicator weights. These procedures were further integrated into the VIKOR decision-making framework. Finally, four streets were selected for empirical validation. The results show that the proposed method systematically considers indicator interactions and their influence on assessment outcomes. In particular, the ranking bias inherent in the traditional VIKOR method is effectively corrected when the degree of indicator interaction is high, significantly improving assessment accuracy. The case study indicates that Street D shows the lowest level of fire safety governance, followed by Street A and Street B, while Street C ranks the highest. This result is consistent with the actual fire accident frequencies, which verifies the reliability of the proposed method.

Key words: vlsekriterijumska optimizacija I kompromisno resenje(VIKOR)method, street fire safety governance level, assessment method, 2-additive fuzzy measure, Choquet integral

中图分类号:

X913.4安全系统工程

孔鑫, 李信江, 张娣娜, 龙祎, 赵金龙. 改进VIKOR方法下街道消防安全治理水平评估方法及应用[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2026, 36(6): 229-237.

Kong Xin, Li Xinjiang, Zhang Dina, Long Yi, Zhao Jinlong. Assessment method and application of street fire safety governance using an improved VIKOR approach[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026, 36(6): 229-237.

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一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	四级指标	编码	属性	来源依据
火灾风险评估F	人员因素	人口密度	常住人口密度	F1	负向	专家访谈
		人口密度	流动人口密度	F2	负向	政策要求^[16]、专家访谈、事故案例(17/175)
		消防工作投入人员数量	重点关爱人群数量(60岁以上独居老人、失智失能)	F3	负向	政策要求^[17]、事故案例(115/175)
		消防工作投入人员数量	街镇消防专职工作人员占比	F4	正向	政策要求^[18]、事故案例(13/175)
	建筑与设施因素	建筑高度	消防应急力量分布密度	F5	正向	政策要求^[19]、事故案例(31/175)
	建筑与设施因素	建筑高度	高层及超高层建筑分布密度	F6	负向	政策要求^[20]、事故案例(35/175)
	环境因素	重点防控场所密度	消防风险点分布密度	F7	负向	政策要求^[21]、事故案例(16/175)
	管理因素	消防专项经费投入占比	消防专项经费投入占比	F8	正向	政策要求^[18]、专家访谈、事故案例(31/175)
工作质效评价W	建筑与设施因素	消防水源覆盖率	消防水源覆盖率	W1	正向	政策要求^[21]、事故案例(25/175)
	环境因素	消防站建设覆盖率	消防站建设覆盖率	W2	正向	政策要求^[22]、事故案例(12/175)
	管理因素	消防监督检查	街道自主发现隐患率	W3	正向	政策要求^[23]、事故案例(64/175)
			街道重大隐患上报率	W4	正向	专家访谈
			隐患整改率	W5	正向	政策要求^[23]、事故案例(79/175)
		近4年火灾接处警情况	火警成案率	W6	负向	专家访谈
			平均每起火灾事故等级	W7	负向	政策要求^[22]
			火情发生后街镇到场率	W8	正向	政策要求^[23]、专家访谈、事故案例(54/175)

编号	单位类型	职称/职务	专业领域	从业年限
1	高校	教授	安全科学与工程	8
2	科研院所	助理研究员	火灾风险评估	6
3	消防救援大队	队长	建筑防火、灭火救援指挥	18
4	街道办事处	应急办主任	基层消防安全治理	6
5	街道办事处	消防专员	隐患排查、网格化管理	5

编码	A街道	B街道	C街道	D街道
F1	0.795	0.884	0.576	0.491
F2	0.491	0.927	0.821	0.921
F3	0.771	0.873	0.394	0.821
F4	0.607	0.921	0.884	0.353
F5	0.598	0.353	0.909	0.1
F6	0.563	0.932	0.537	0.824
F7	0.574	0.942	0.822	0.904
F8	0.576	0.666	0.591	0.925
W1	0.914	0.606	0.922	0.9
W2	0.867	0.671	0.899	0.512
W3	0.656	0.725	0.895	0.758
W4	0.353	0.436	0.556	0.556
W5	0.921	0.925	0.882	0.875
W6	0.873	0.856	0.921	0.895
W7	0.731	0.548	0.806	0.899
W8	0.923	0.394	0.907	0.908

指标排序	2-可加模糊测度
f(1) = M_g (W4)	g(C₍₁₎) = g({W4, F2, F6, F7, F8, F5, F4, W3, W7, F3, F1, W2, W6, W1, W5, W8})=1
f(2) = M_g (F2)	g(C₍₂₎) = g({F2, F6, F7, F8, F5, F4, W3, W7, F3, F1, W2, W6, W1, W5, W8})=0. 907 735 768
f(3) = M_g (F6)	g(C₍₃₎) = g({F6, F7, F8, F5, F4, W3, W7, F3, F1, W2, W6, W1, W5, W8})=0. 863 060 9
f(4) = M_g (F7)	g(C₍₄₎) = g({F7, F8, F5, F4, W3, W7, F3, F1, W2, W6, W1, W5, W8})=0. 795 716 418
f(5) = M_g (F8)	g(C₍₅₎) = g({F8, F5, F4, W3, W7, F3, F1, W2, W6, W1, W5, W8})=0. 750 137 405
f(6) = M_g (F5)	g(C₍₆₎) = g({F5, F4, W3, W7, F3, F1, W2, W6, W1, W5, W8})=0. 699 909 322
f(7) = M_g (F4)	g(C₍₇₎) = g({F4, W3, W7, F3, F1, W2, W6, W1, W5, W8})=0. 653 446 725
f(8) = M_g (W3)	g(C₍₈₎) = g({W3, W7, F3, F1, W2, W6, W1, W5, W8})=0. 584 764 878
f(9) = M_g (W7)	g(C₍₉₎) = g({W7, F3, F1, W2, W6, W1, W5, W8})=0. 482 004 526
f(10) = M_g (F3)	g(C₍₁₀₎) = g({F3, F1, W2, W6, W1, W5, W8})=0. 408 879 195
f(11) = M_g (F1)	g(C₍₁₁₎) = g({F1, W2, W6, W1, W5, W8})=0. 361 516 56
f(12) = M_g (W2)	g(C₍₁₂₎) = g({W2, W6, W1, W5, W8})=0. 319 557 854
f(13) = M_g (W6)	g(C₍₁₃₎) = g({W6, W1, W5, W8})=0. 265 997 037
f(14) = M_g (W1)	g(C₍₁₄₎) = g({W1, W5, W8})=0. 201 646 713
f(15) = M_g (W5)	g(C₍₁₅₎) = g({W5, W8})=0. 159 998 708
f(16) = M_g (W8)	g(C₍₁₆₎) = g({W8})=0. 046 486 116
Choquet积分	0. 695 860 112

街道	传统VIKOR 方法	改进VIKOR 方法	事故频次/ (次/月)
A	0. 744 5	0. 726 0	2.63
B	0. 263 5	0. 346 8	1.97
C	0. 345 7	0. 339 8	1.84
D	0. 754 1	0. 830 1	2.74
水平排序	B>C>A>D	C>B>A>D	C>B>A>D