高速公路平纵组合段行车风险场内换道决策模型

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.08.0657

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为刻画车辆在平纵组合路段换道过程中的驾驶风险并保障换道安全性,首先,建立行车风险统一场模型,定义道路条件影响因子(坡度和圆曲线曲率),量化道路条件对车辆动态风险场的放大效应;其次,将道路条件影响因子引入最小安全换道距离模型,提出道路安全度,以反映不同平纵组合路段对最小安全换道距离的差异化影响;最后,建立考虑平纵组合路段的车辆换道模型(MLC),通过不同速度、加速度及平纵组合形式下的实车试验验证模型。结果表明:车辆速度和加速度协同影响最小安全换道距离;道路条件影响因子越大,所需最小安全换道距离越长;仿真与实车数据相关系数达0.996,模型精度较高;与基于椭圆模型的换道模型相比,MLC模型F₁分数达89.45%和90.99%,分别提升7.49%和8.10%;相较于安全势场换道模型,提升4.57%和4.32%。

关键词: 高速公路, 平纵组合路段, 行车风险, 换道决策模型, 最小安全换道距离, 道路条件影响因子

Abstract:

In order to characterize the driving risks faced by vehicles during lane changing in the combination of longitudinal and flat road sections, and to ensure safe lane-changing maneuvers, this study firstly establishes a unified field model of driving risks and defines the influence factors of road conditions R_i(gradient and curvature of the round curve) to characterize the amplification of the dynamic risk field of the vehicle by such road conditions. Secondly, the influence factors of road conditions are introduced into the model of minimum safe lane change distance, and the level of road safety ξ is proposed to reflect the different influences of different combinations of longitudinal and flat road sections on the minimum safe lane change distance. Finally, a Minimum Safe-Distance Lane-Change (MLC) model for combined road sections was established. The minimum safe lane-changing distance required by vehicles at different speeds, different accelerations, and different combinations of longitudinal and flat lines is validated through real-vehicle experiments. The results show that the speed and acceleration of the vehicle synergistically affect the minimum safe lane-changing distance; the larger the influence factor of the road conditions is, the longer the minimum safe lane-changing distance is; the correlation coefficient between the simulation data and the real-vehicle test data reaches 0.996, which means that the model has high accuracy. Compared with the ellipsoid-based lane-changing model, the F₁ score of the lane-changing model proposed in this study reaches 89.45% and 90.99%, which are 7.49% and 8.10% higher, respectively. Compared with the safety potential field lane-changing model, it improved by 4.57% and 4.32%.

Key words: highway, flat-longitudinal combined road sections, travelling risk, lane-changing decision model, minimum safe lane-changing distance, road condition factors

中图分类号:

X951交通运输安全

胡立伟, 马思月, 陈家乐, 潘江雄, 杨灿, 龚麒. 高速公路平纵组合段行车风险场内换道决策模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2026, 36(8): 74-83.

Hu Liwei, Ma Siyue, Chen Jiale, Pan Jiangxiong, Yang Can, Gong Qi. A decision model for in-field lane-changing at highway traffic risk in combination of flat and longitudinal sections[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026, 36(8): 74-83.

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路段	最高限速/(km/h)	桩号范围/km	车道数	路线长度/km	平纵组合路段占比/%
A	100	22+0.024 ~ 30+0.094	双向4车道	8.07	37.4
B	120	94+0.172 ~ 105+0.852	双向4车道	11.68	42.3
C	120	28+0.478 ~ 37+0.268	双向4车道	8.79	44.1

参数	取值
k₀	1.997
β	-0.183
σ	0.021
α	2.538
λ	3.869

模型	RMSE/(m/s²)	MAPE
安全势场跟驰模型	3.002	0.178
所构跟驰模型	2.496	0.144

路段	圆曲线最小半径/km	圆曲线最大半径/km	最大纵坡/%	最大坡长/m
A	0.83	4.64	3	650
B	1.49	3.89	3	730
C	1.16	5.27	3.5	680

模型	最小安全换道距离	精确率/ %	召回率/ %	F₁分数/%
MLC模型	${\mathit{D}}_{\mathrm{M}}^{\mathrm{T}-\mathrm{F}}$	89.21	89.69	89.45
MLC模型	${\mathit{D}}_{\mathrm{M}}^{\mathrm{R}-\mathrm{T}}$	90.34	91.65	90.99
安全势场换道模型	${\mathit{D}}_{\mathrm{M}}^{\mathrm{T}-\mathrm{F}}$	85.14	84.62	84.88
安全势场换道模型	${\mathit{D}}_{\mathrm{M}}^{\mathrm{R}-\mathrm{T}}$	86.37	86.98	86.67
基于椭圆模型的换道模型	${\mathit{D}}_{\mathrm{M}}^{\mathrm{T}-\mathrm{F}}$	83.97	82.48	83.22
基于椭圆模型的换道模型	${\mathit{D}}_{\mathrm{M}}^{\mathrm{R}-\mathrm{T}}$	84.32	84.03	84.17