山区公路交通事故多要素风险综合分析方法:以山区雨雾天气为例

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.09.026

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (9): 161-166.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.09.026

山区公路交通事故多要素风险综合分析方法:以山区雨雾天气为例

温惠英教授, 薛刚

华南理工大学土木与交通学院, 广东广州 510640

收稿日期:2019-05-04 修回日期:2019-07-20 出版日期:2019-09-28 发布日期:2020-10-30
作者简介:温惠英 (1965—),女,江西于都人,博士,教授,主要从事交通规划、物流系统优化和交通安全等方面的研究。E-mail: hywen@scut.edu.cn。薛刚 (1992—),男,江苏盐城人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为驾驶人行为特性、道路交通事故分析。E-mail: 201710101418@mail.scut.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(51578247)。

Comprehensive analysis method of multi-factor risks for highway traffic accidents in mountain areas: taking rain and fog weather for example

WEN Huiying, XUE Gang

School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou Guangdong 510640, China

Received:2019-05-04 Revised:2019-07-20 Online:2019-09-28 Published:2020-10-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为完善多要素风险作用下山区公路交通事故与风险分析的理论与方法,提出一种基于脆弱性面与风险要素联合重现期的山区公路交通事故多要素风险综合分析模型,并选取典型的云南山区公路交通中的雨雾天气进行实例分析。首先建立表示风险要素强度与损失间关系的脆弱性面模型;然后建立基于copula的风险要素分析模型;最后计算并得到4个案例研究路段在雨雾综合作用下交通参与者死亡损失的风险曲线。结果表明:山区公路交通风险在多要素风险综合作用下危害性急剧上升,通过案例研究证明提出的综合分析方法可量化山区公路交通风险的绝对值。

关键词: 山区公路, 交通风险, 多要素风险, 脆弱性面, copula函数, 联合概率分布

Abstract: In order to improve the analytic theory and method of highway traffic accidents and risks under the influence of multiple factors, a comprehensive analytic model of multi-factor risks of traffic accidents in mountain area was proposed based on the joint return period of vulnerability surface and risk factors, and the typical rain and fog weather in mountainous highway traffic of Yunnan province was selected for case study. Firstly, a vulnerability surface model was established to represent the relationship between the strength of risk factors and the losses. Secondly, a copula-based risk factor analytic model was established. Finally, the risk curves of traffic participants' loss of life under the combined influence of multiple factors of rain and fog in four case study sections were obtained. The results show that the risk of highway traffic in mountainous area increases sharply under the influence of multi-hazard risk, and that the comprehensive analysis method proposed can quantify the absolute value of risks.

Key words: mountainous highway, traffic risk, multi-factor risk, vulnerability surface, copula function, joint probability distribution

中图分类号:

X928.03

温惠英, 薛刚. 山区公路交通事故多要素风险综合分析方法:以山区雨雾天气为例[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(9): 161-166.

WEN Huiying, XUE Gang. Comprehensive analysis method of multi-factor risks for highway traffic accidents in mountain areas: taking rain and fog weather for example[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(9): 161-166.

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山区公路交通事故多要素风险综合分析方法:以山区雨雾天气为例

Comprehensive analysis method of multi-factor risks for highway traffic accidents in mountain areas: taking rain and fog weather for example

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