高原山区公路环境下交通事故形态致因分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.008

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (5): 44-49.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.008

高原山区公路环境下交通事故形态致因分析

陆欢¹, 戢晓峰^**1 教授, 杨文臣², 胡澄宇²

1 昆明理工大学交通工程学院,云南昆明 650504;
2 云南省交通规划设计研究院陆地交通气象灾害防治技术国家工程实验室,云南昆明 650200

收稿日期:2019-01-29 修回日期:2019-03-29
作者简介:陆欢(1994—),男,江苏启东人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为道路交通安全。E-mail:luhuanbest@163.com。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0803906);陆地交通气象灾害防治技术国家工程实验室开放研究基金资助(NEL-2019-05)。

Cause analysis of different patterns of traffic accidents on plateau mountain roads

LU Huan¹, JI Xiaofeng¹, YANG Wenchen², HU Chengyu²

1 Faculty of Transportation Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming Yunnan 650504, China;
2 National Engineering Laboratory for Surface Transportation Weather Impacts Prevention, Yunnan Institute of Transportation Planning and Design, Kunming Yunnan 650200, China

Received:2019-01-29 Revised:2019-03-29

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为揭示高原山区公路环境下不同交通事故形态的致因,明确不同事故形态的关键影响因素及影响程度,利用采集的典型高原山区公路交通事故统计数据,基于事故形态视角构建Logistic模型,选取追尾、正面及刮擦3类事故形态为因变量,从道路交通环境、道路交通设施与车辆类型等方面选取7类影响因素为自变量,分析事故致因。结果表明:不同事故形态的致因存在明显差异性,标志标线设置是3类事故发生的保护因素,信号灯设置是正面碰撞事故发生的保护因素,追尾事故发生的危险因素是机非分隔带;对追尾事故影响最大的是大型客车,是其他车辆的5.282倍;中型货车对正面碰撞的影响最大,是其他车辆的5倍,但对刮擦事故的影响最小;不利天气对追尾事故发生的影响是正常天气的3～4倍;夜间行车无路灯照明,发生追尾事故的概率为白天的1.312倍。

关键词: 交通安全, 事故致因分析, 交通事故形态, Logistic模型, 高原山区公路

Abstract: In order to reveal the causes of different patterns of traffic accidents occurring on plateau mountain roads, and to clarify the key factors affecting different traffic accident patterns and their degree of influence, a Logistic model is constructed based on the statistical data collected from typical highway accidents in plateau mountainous areas. The causes were analyzed by using three traffic accident patterns as dependent variables, namely rear-end collision, head-on collision and scratch, and using seven types of affecting factors as independent variables from three perspectives of traffic environment, road facilities and vehicle types. The results show that there are obvious differences in the causes of different traffic accident patterns: the marking line setting is the protection factor for all of the three patterns, the signal setting is the protection factor for head-on collisions, while the risk factor for rear-end accidents is the motor and non-motor separating belt; what affects most on the rear-end accident is the large passenger car, which is 5.282 times of other vehicles; the medium-sized truck has the greatest impact on the head-on collision, which is five times that of others, but it has the least impact on scratch accidents; the adverse weather affects the rear-end collision 3 to 4 times of normal weather and the probability of a rear-end collision is 1.312 times that of the daytime if there is no street lighting at night.

Key words: traffic safety, cause analysis of accidents, traffic accident patterns, Logistic model, plateau mountain road

中图分类号:

陆欢, 戢晓峰, 杨文臣, 胡澄宇. 高原山区公路环境下交通事故形态致因分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(5): 44-49.

LU Huan, JI Xiaofeng, YANG Wenchen, HU Chengyu. Cause analysis of different patterns of traffic accidents on plateau mountain roads[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(5): 44-49.

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高原山区公路环境下交通事故形态致因分析

Cause analysis of different patterns of traffic accidents on plateau mountain roads

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