基于时滞估计的过程报警传播路径分析方法

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.2321

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (11): 126-133.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.2321

基于时滞估计的过程报警传播路径分析方法

蔡爽¹^,²(), 万阿英², 徐晴晴³

¹ 呼伦贝尔学院机电工程学院,内蒙古呼伦贝尔 021008
² 内蒙古自治区高校矿产资源安全开采与综合利用工程研究中心,内蒙古呼伦贝尔 021008
³ 中国石油大学(北京) 安全与海洋工程学院,北京 102249

收稿日期:2022-06-15 修回日期:2022-09-08 出版日期:2022-11-28 发布日期:2023-05-28
作者简介:
蔡爽 (1991—),女,辽宁铁岭人,博士,讲师,主要从事基于大数据分析的过程报警管理及安全监控预警研究。E-mail:13581523420@163.com。
万阿英，教授
徐晴晴，讲师
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(12061033); 内蒙古自治区“十四五”社会公益领域重点研发和成果转化计划项目(2022YFSH0019); 内蒙古自治区科技计划(2021GG0296); 呼伦贝尔学院博士基金资助(2020BS03)

Process alarm propagation path analysis method based on time delay estimation

CAI Shuang¹^,²(), WAN Aying², XU Qingqing³

¹ College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Hulunbuir University, Hulunbuir Inner Mongolia 021008, China
² Engineering Research Center for Safe Exploitation and Comprehensive Utilization of Mineral Resources at Universities of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Hulunbuir Inner Mongolia 021008, China
³ College of Safety and Ocean Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China

Received:2022-06-15 Revised:2022-09-08 Online:2022-11-28 Published:2023-05-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为避免复杂大型系统中由于工艺设备众多、过程报警配置增加而导致关联报警泛滥的问题,针对现有因果分析方法存在主观性强及不确定性因素、缺乏对变量间时滞关系的有效性检验等情况,提出一种基于时滞分析的过程报警传播路径分析方法;基于K近邻替补法(KNNI)进行变量间时滞估计,确定过程风险传播方向,并通过计算Sorgenfrei相似性系数,确定2变量间的报警关联程度,建立过程报警传播路径图;将该方法应用于某校内集中供暖系统。结果表明:所提方法可准确辨识出该过程中的2条关联报警传播路径,即X₁(102号热交换器出口温度)→X₂(校内热水供给温度)→X₃(Tercero区域3号楼热水供给温度)和X₁→X₂→X₄(Tercero区域食堂热水供给温度),所得时滞估计结果符合过程实际情况。依据所建模型,由于X₂→X₃的时滞(5 min)远小于X₂→X₄的时滞(24 min), 但报警关联程度相近,基于二者间时滞大小的差异,若X₁发生高报警,可提示操作人员优先采取措施(如减少热水流量),防止X₃在短时间内发生超高报警,达到预防报警、保障过程安全的目的。

关键词: 时滞估计, 报警传播路径, 分析方法, 报警泛滥, 关联报警

Abstract:

In order to avoid the problem of associated alarm flooding due to the large number of process equipment and the increase of process alarm configuration in complex large-scale systems, a process alarm propagation path analysis method based on time-delay analysis was proposed for the existing causal analysis methods with strong subjectivity and uncertainty factors and lack of validity test of time-delay relationship between variables. Based on K nearest neighbor impuation(KNNI) method, the time delay between variables was estimated to determine the direction of process risk propagation. By calculating the Sorgenfrei similarity coefficient, the alarm correlation degree between the two variables was determined, and the process alarm propagation path diagram was established. This method was applied to a central heating system in a school. The results show that the proposed method can accurately identify two associated alarm propagation paths in the process, namely X₁ (outlet temperature of No.102 heat exchanger) → X₂ (hot water supply temperature in school) → X₃ (hot water supply temperature of No.3 building in Tercero area) and X₁ → X₂ → X₄ (hot water supply temperature of canteen in Tercero area). The obtained time-delay estimation result are in line with the actual situation of the process. According to the model, the time delay of X₂→X₃ (5 min) is much smaller than the time delay of X₂→X₄ (24 min), but the degree of alarm correlation is similar. Based on the difference of the time delay between the two paths, if X₁ has a high alarm, it can prompt the operator to take prior measures (such as reducing hot water flow) to prevent X₃ from having high alarm in a short time, so as to prevent alarm and and ensure the process safety.

Key words: time delay estimation, alarm propagation path, analysis method, alarm flooding, associated alarm

蔡爽, 万阿英, 徐晴晴. 基于时滞估计的过程报警传播路径分析方法[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(11): 126-133.

CAI Shuang, WAN Aying, XU Qingqing. Process alarm propagation path analysis method based on time delay estimation[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(11): 126-133.

图/表 11

图1

图2

表1

图3

图4

图5

表2

各变量间时滞估计结果

变量i	变量j	$d^i, j$	$ρ (d^i, j)$
1	2	2	0.83
1	3	7	0.81
1	4	26	0.80
2	3	5	0.80
2	4	24	0.79
3	4	19	0.79

表2

图6

表3

各变量间报警关联系数

变量i	变量j	$d^i, j$	$N 1$	$N 2$	c( $d^$ )	ρ_sor( $d^i, j$ )
1	2	2	69	68	53	0.60
1	3	7	69	61	55	0.72
1	4	26	69	63	53	0.65
2	3	5	68	61	52	0.65
2	4	24	68	63	54	0.68
3	4	19	61	63	54	0.76

表3

图7

图8

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基于时滞估计的过程报警传播路径分析方法

Process alarm propagation path analysis method based on time delay estimation

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变量	位号	描述
X₁	TT8227	102号热交换器出口温度
X₂	TT8238	校内热水供给温度
X₃	TT8271	Tercero区域3号楼热水供给温度
X₄	TT8281	Tercero区域食堂热水供给温度

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