复杂工业系统人因失误与人因可靠性知识结构与演化趋势

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.12.0509

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为有效控制和减少复杂工业系统人因失误,提高人的可靠性,从科学网(WOS)数据库中收集581篇相关论文及其15 722条参考文献,使用作者合作网络、文献共被引分析、突发性探测等方法,探究该领域内的主要研究团队、知识基础和前沿趋势。结果表明:该领域的贡献者主要来自韩国、中国、美国等国家,主要集中在核电、航海、航空等行业;该领域研究经历从应急操作程序、程序进展的可变性等定性研究到目前模拟数据、人因可靠性分析(HRA)等定量研究的知识演变;当前研究热度较高的主题主要与人因失误数据、依赖性评估等相关。通过深入的内容分析发现,人因失误研究主要分析人机交互关系下的人因失误机制,HRA主要开展HRA方法改进、绩效影响因素(PIFs)辨识、人因失误概率评估等内容。

关键词: 复杂工业系统, 人因失误, 人因可靠性分析(HRA), 智能化发展, CiteSpace

Abstract:

In order to effectively control and reduce human error and improve human reliability in complex industrial systems, 581 related articles and their 15 722 references were collected from the Web of Science (WOS) database, and the main research teams, knowledge bases and frontier hotspots were explored by using the methods of authors' cooperative network, document co-citation and burst detection. The results show that the contributors mainly come from Korea, China and America, and mainly focus on industrial fields such as nuclear power, navigation and aviation. Human error and human reliability research have experienced the knowledge evolution from qualitative research (e.g., "emergency operating procedures" and "variability of procedure progression") to quantitative research (e.g., "simulation data" and HRA). Moreover, the research frontier and hot topics are mainly related to the “dependence assessment” and the “human error data”. Through further in-depth analysis, it is found that human error research mainly analyzed the human error mechanism under the human-machine interaction, and the improvement of the HRA method, identification of performance influencing factors and the human error probability assessment are included in the HRA research.

Key words: complex industrial system, human error, human reliability analysis(HRA), intelligentization, CiteSpace

张燕, 尘兴邦, 李铭, 吴松, 佟瑞鹏. 复杂工业系统人因失误与人因可靠性知识结构与演化趋势[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(12): 46-52.

ZHANG Yan, CHEN Xingbang, LI Ming, WU Song, TONG Ruipeng. Intellectual structure and evolution trend of human error and human reliability in complex industrial systems[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(12): 46-52.

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时间	类别	代表性方法	主要应用领域
20世纪60年代 —80年代后期	基于任务	人失误率预测技术^[22]	核电、航海
20世纪60年代 —80年代后期	基于任务	人失误评价和减少技术^[23]	核电、航空、铁路、石化、航海
20世纪90年代 —21世纪初	基于认知	认知可靠性和失误分析方法^[24]	航天、石化、核电、高铁、航海、航空
	基于认知	标准化的设备分析风险HRA^[25]	核电、石油、航海
	基于仿真	IDAC模型^[20]	核电、航海、航空、电力
	基于仿真	人机一体化设计和分析系统^[26]	航空、航天
2010— 2022年	基于模型	Phoenix方法^[27]	核电
		Phoenix-石油炼化作业(Phoenix-Petroleum Refining Operations, Phoenix-PRO)方法^[28]	石油
		Petro-HRA^[29]	石油