工贸企业有限空间作业事故风险分级研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.06.0541

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提升工贸企业有限空间作业事故风险识别与管控水平,建立有限空间作业事故社会可接受风险标准,开展基于F-N曲线的风险分级研究。首先,基于2014—2021年工贸企业有限空间作业较大及以上事故数据,从伤亡人数、事故数量、企业数量等维度进行统计分析,掌握事故特征;然后,结合事故频率与伤亡后果,基于最低合理可行(ALARP)准则制定社会可接受风险标准,绘制F-N曲线图;最后,依据不可容忍、可接受和可忽略3个风险区域,建立风险分级管理模式,并分别从企业与个人角度提出管控措施。结果表明:死亡在3~10人的可接受风险事故频率数量级在10^-6~10^-4之间;以斜率为-4.033的F-N曲线为基础划分的3个不同风险等级区域,有助于明确风险等级边界,突出分级管理重点。

关键词: 有限空间作业, F-N曲线, 最低合理可行(ALARP)准则, 工贸企业, 风险分级管理

Abstract:

To enhance the identification and control of accident risks in confined space operations in industrial and commercial enterprises, a socially acceptable risk standard for such operation accidents was established, and a risk grading study based on F-N curve was conducted. First, historical data on significant and higher-level accidents in confined space operations from 2014 to 2021 were analyzed statistically in terms of fatalities, accident frequency, and the number of enterprises involved, in order to identify accident patterns. Then, considering accident frequency and fatality consequences, a socially acceptable risk standard was developed based on ALARP criteria, and F-N curve was plotted. Finally, a risk grading management model was established based on three risk zones-intolerable, acceptable, and negligible. The control measures were proposed from both enterprise and individual perspectives. The results show that for accidents with 3 to 10 fatalities, the frequency falls within the magnitude of 10^-6-10^-4. The F-N curve with a slope of -4.033 is used to divide three distinct risk levels, helping to clarify the boundaries of risk levels and highlight management priorities.

Key words: confined space operation, F-N curve, as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) criteria, industrial and trade enterprises, risk classification and control

中图分类号:

X928.02事故处理

李季硕, 许开立, 姚锡文, 李梦佳. 工贸企业有限空间作业事故风险分级研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(6): 98-104.

LI Jishuo, XU Kaili, YAO Xiwen, LI Mengjia. Research on risk classification of confined space operation in industrial and trade enterprises[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(6): 98-104.

图/表 5

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累积频率 F(N)	年份
累积频率 F(N)	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
F(3)	2.630×10^-4	2.449×10^-4	1.670×10^-4	2.044×10^-4	1.279×10^-4	1.555×10^-4	1.915×10^-4	1.386×10^-4
F(4)	8.766×10^-5	1.225×10^-4	3.711×10^-5	6.290×10^-5	1.421×10^-5	1.196×10^-5	2.016×10^-5	5.039×10^-5
F(5)	2.191×10^-5	6.123×10^-5	3.711×10^-5	3.145×10^-5	1.421×10^-5	1.196×10^-5	2.016×10^-5	2.519×10^-5
F(6)	0	2.041×10^-5	0	3.145×10^-5	1.421×10^-5	1.196×10^-5	1.008×10^-5	6.300×10^-6
F(7)	0	0	0	1.572×10^-5	1.421×10^-5	1.196×10^-5	0	6.300×10^-6
F(8)	0	0	0	1.572×10^-5	0	1.196×10^-5	0	6.300×10^-6
F(9)	0	0	0	0	0	1.196×10^-5	0	0
F(10)	0	0	0	0	0	1.196×10^-5	0	0

未标准化系数B		t	t-Sig.	B的95.0%置信区间		模型汇总
未标准化系数B		t	t-Sig.	下限	上限	R²	调整后 R²	标准估算的误差S_e	F	F-Sig.
常量	-1.797	-14.943	0.000	-2.091	-1.503	0.992	0.990	0.110	720.327	0.000
lgN	-4.033	-26.839	0.000	-4.400	-3.665	0.992	0.990	0.110	720.327	0.000

风险区	管控措施
不可容忍风险区一级风险管控	风险辨识与评估:作业前进行全面的风险识别与评估,包括环境、设备、操作流程等潜在危害
	安全防护装备检查:确保作业人员配备符合标准的个人防护装备,并对防护装备进行全面检查
	作业人员培训与考核:进行严格的安全培训和考核,确保作业人员掌握必要的安全知识和操作技能
	全过程监管:实行全程监管,实时监控作业过程,发现异常情况立即停止作业并进行处理
	紧急应对机制:制定详细的应急预案,配备应急救援设施和人员,确保突发事故能够迅速响应并减少损失
可接受风险区二级风险管控	风险辨识与安全教育:作业前进行风险因素辨识,并对作业人员进行必要的安全教育和培训
	常规监管与检查:作业中进行常规监管与检查,确保设备、环境、操作人员处于安全状态
	成本效益分析与风险控制:根据成本效益分析,判断是否需要采取额外的风险控制措施(如增加通风设备或安全人员等)
	灵活调整管控策略:根据作业过程中发现的风险隐患,及时调整管控措施,进一步降低风险
可忽略风险区三级风险管控	一般监管手段:采用一般的安全监管措施,定期巡视作业现场,确保作业按规定流程进行
	随机检查与作业状态监控:进行随机检查,关注作业人员的安全操作,并确保其处于良好的身体与心理状态
	保持风险稳定性:确保作业过程中的风险始终处于可接受范围,及时发现并处理任何异常情况,防止风险升高
	持续改进与反馈机制:收集作业中的问题与隐患,定期总结经验,不断优化安全管理措施,提高安全水平