基于改进ISM-FRAM-AHP的有限空间作业过程风险防控

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.09.1313

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为解决有限空间作业过程多层次、多环节、多功能交互关系模糊和不良耦合影响的问题,引入功能共振分析模型(FRAM),结合解释结构模型(ISM)和层次分析法(AHP)优化改进层次结构和判断方式,通过划分风险层次结构,将系统功能耦合变异性的影响进行定量化,并计算功能单元和层级结构的重要度,通过功能可变性和耦合损失度结果,确定上下游功能变化输入输出表型,理清系统功能要素间耦合作用影响机制。结果表明:应用基于改进ISM-FRAM-AHP的有限空间作业过程风险防控模型,能够得到23个功能单元和10层风险层级功能网络;功能可变性数值和耦合损失度最大值为4.36(外部环境F₂₃)和0.808 4(制定作业方案F₂),作业安全风险程度较高,功能变化主要表现为顺序、目标和控制,针对8条失效链路设置物理、象征、功能、隐形4种有效屏障措施。

关键词: 解释结构模型(ISM), 功能共振分析模型(FRAM), 层次分析法(AHP), 有限空间作业, 作业过程, 风险防控, 层次结构, 耦合变异

Abstract:

To address the issues of ambiguous multi-level, multi-link and multi-functional interaction relationships and the adverse coupling effects during operations in confined spaces, FRAM was introduced. Combined with ISM and AHP, the hierarchical structure and judgment methods were optimized and improved. By dividing the risk hierarchical structure, the impact of system function coupling variability was quantified, and the importance of functional units and hierarchical structures was calculated. Through the results of functional variability and coupling loss degree, the input-output phenotype of upstream and downstream functional changes were determined, and the coupling mechanism among system functional elements was clarified. The results show that by applying the risk prevention and control model for operations in confined spaces based on the improved ISM-FRAM-AHP, 23 functional units and a 10-layer risk hierarchical functional network are obtained. The maximum values of functional variability and coupling loss degree are 4.36 (external environment F₂₃) and 0.808 4 (formulating operation plans F₂), indicating a relatively high operation safety risk degree. The functional changes are mainly manifested in sequence, goal and control. Four effective functional barrier measures, physical, symbolic, functional and invisible, are proposed for 8 failure links.

Key words: interpretive structural modeling (ISM), functional resonance analysis method (FRAM), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), confined space operations, operation process, risk prevention and control, hierarchical structure, coupling variation

中图分类号:

X924.4安全控制技术

王涵宇, 谭钦文, 刘娟, 李爽露, 田忠伟, 陈超. 基于改进ISM-FRAM-AHP的有限空间作业过程风险防控[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(9): 165-173.

WANG Hanyu, TAN Qinwen, LIU Juan, LI Shuanglu, TIAN Zhongwei, CHEN Chao. Process risk prevention and control analysis for confined space operations based on improved ISM-FRAM-AHP[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(9): 165-173.

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功能参数	功能描述
输入I	通过有限空间作业方案
输出O	审批通过,授权批准作业
控制C	有限空间作业审批程序和制度
资源R	有限空间作业生产安全投入资金
前提P	负责人具有相应审批资质
时间T	审批所需要的时间

输出变化表型	功能可变性表征	评分
时间	准时	1
	过早	3
	过晚	3
	不发生	4
精度	精确	1
	可接受	2
	不精确	3

功能单元	F₁	F₂	F₃	F₄	F₅	F₆	F₇	F₈	F₉	F₁₀	F₁₁
结构重要度	0.175 9	0.213 3	0.204 0	0.136 0	0.119 2	0.050 0	0.011 7	0.013 6	0.015 0	0.008 6	0.029 0
功能单元	F₁₂	F₁₃	F₁₄	F₁₅	F₁₆	F₁₇	F₁₈	F₁₉	F₂₀	F₂₁	F₂₃
结构重要度	0.010 4	0.014 1	0.068 3	0.049 0	0.007 2	0.012 0	0.024 1	0.004 8	0.005 5	0.002 9	0.090 0

功能单元	力量/距离/方向E	时机/持续时间D	顺序S	目标H	主要表型
F₁	0.055 0	0.263 4	0.117 8	0.563 8	H
F₂	0.046 8	0.160 0	0.396 6	0.396 6	S、H
F₃	0.174 1	0.065 4	0.102 3	0.658 2	H
F₄	0.055 2	0.138 9	0.532 5	0.273 4	S
F₅	0.062 1	0.087 8	0.293 4	0.556 8	H
F₆	0.050 0	0.102 5	0.423 7	0.423 7	S、H
F₇	0.472 3	0.285 4	0.169 7	0.072 5	E
F₈	0.049 1	0.267 0	0.540 5	0.143 4	S
F₉	0.253 7	0.140 4	0.083 5	0.522 5	H
F₁₀	0.055 0	0.117 8	0.563 8	0.263 4	S
F₁₁	0.055 5	0.580 3	0.302 7	0.061 5	D
F₁₂	0.060 8	0.621 8	0.253 1	0.064 3	D
F₁₃	0.059 9	0.586 8	0.293 4	0.059 9	D
F₁₄	0.055 7	0.168 6	0.134 1	0.641 7	H
F₁₅	0.053 0	0.129 8	0.580 3	0.236 9	S
F₁₆	0.092 8	0.601 5	0.055 9	0.249 8	D
F₁₇	0.115 8	0.258 9	0.052 3	0.573 0	H
F₁₈	0.050 3	0.302 6	0.500 2	0.146 9	S
F₁₉	0.056 5	0.309 4	0.492 1	0.142 1	S
F₂₀	0.116 0	0.271 5	0.062 8	0.549 7	H
F₂₁	0.049 3	0.131 3	0.530 7	0.288 6	S
F₂₃	0.238 3	0.630 6	0.065 5	0.065 5	D

功能单元	输入I	资源R	前提P	时间T	控制C	主要表型
F₂	0.070 0	0.295 7	0.115 0	0.044 5	0.474 8	C
F₄	0.103 6	0.485 7	0.074 1	0.050 2	0.286 5	R
F₅	0.064 0	0.320 6	0.096 5	0.039 7	0.479 3	C
F₆	0.072 2	0.125 8	0.267 8	0.032 2	0.502 0	C
F₇	0.146 2	0.383 1	0.032 0	0.055 6	0.383 1	R、C
F₈	0.105 6	0.302 3	0.073 3	0.034 9	0.483 9	C
F₉	0.121 7	0.293 1	0.078 0	0.036 7	0.470 5	C
F₁₀	0.070 1	0.298 6	0.493 6	0.030 6	0.107 2	P
F₁₁	0.073 0	0.291 1	0.040 7	0.121 5	0.473 8	C
F₁₂	0.460 5	0.082 6	0.041 4	0.271 6	0.143 9	I
F₁₃	0.463 1	0.130 0	0.042 9	0.288 8	0.074 7	I
F₁₄	0.132 4	0.303 3	0.064 7	0.033 6	0.466 0	C
F₁₅	0.357 5	0.097 2	0.357 5	0.037 2	0.150 5	I、P
F₁₆	0.152 7	0.372 5	0.067 3	0.034 9	0.372 5	R、C
F₁₇	0.288 7	0.288 7	0.098 5	0.035 3	0.288 7	I、R、C
F₁₈	0.350 0	0.181 5	0.083 0	0.035 6	0.350 0	I、C
F₁₉	0.507 0	0.055 8	0.104 0	0.055 8	0.277 3	I
F₂₀	0.304 4	0.041 8	0.469 3	0.041 8	0.142 8	P
F₂₁	0.129 6	0.063 6	0.510 0	0.032 9	0.263 8	P
F₂₂	0.212 4	0.137 7	0.536 6	0.032 5	0.080 8	P