危化品槽罐车运输事故关键致因及传递路径研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.04.1559

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为有效减少危化品槽罐车运输事故的发生,找出导致事故发生的关键致因及因子间的传递路径,在统计分析2016—2020年发生的1 041起危化品槽罐车运输事故的基础上,结合事故致因理论,从人、机、环、管4个维度,提炼出15个事故致因因子,联合使用决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)和解释结构模型(ISM)分析各因子的关联关系及对事故影响的重要程度,构建事故致因因子多级递阶模型。结果表明:错误操作、罐体及安全附件故障是导致事故的直接关键致因,监督管理不到位、极端天气和教育培训不到位是导致事故的深层关键致因;事故的发生是多层因子共同作用的结果,且以监督管理不到位和极端天气为底层因子,分别衍生出23条和16条事故传递路径,其中,监督管理不到位—教育培训不到位—错误操作是最危险传递路径,在事故预防时应予以重点控制。

关键词: 危化品, 槽罐车运输事故, 关键致因, 传递路径, 决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL), 解释结构模型(ISM)

Abstract:

In order to effectively reduce the occurrence of hazardous chemicals tank truck transportation accidents, identify key causes of the accidents and the transmission paths between factors. Based on the statistical analysis of 1041 hazardous chemicals tank truck transportation accidents from 2016 to 2020, 15 accident causation factors were extracted from four dimensions: human, machine, environment and management. Integrated DEMATEL method and ISM were used to analyze the correlation between each factor and the degree of influence on the accidents, and a multi-level hierarchical model was established. The results show that: wrong operation, tank and safety accessory faults are the direct key causes of accidents, while inadequate supervision and management, extreme weather, and inadequate education and training are the key causes of accidents. 23 and 16 accident transmission paths are developed, respectively, with inadequate supervision and management and extreme weather as the underlying factors. Among them, Inadequate supervision and management—inadequate education and training—wrong operation is the most dangerous transmission path, which should be controlled in accident prevention.

Key words: hazardous chemicals, tank truck transportation accidents, key causes, transmission paths, decision making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL), interpretative structural modeling (ISM)

郑时求, 周荣义, 杨璧帆, 李丽, 鲁义. 危化品槽罐车运输事故关键致因及传递路径研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(4): 172-178.

ZHENG Shiqiu, ZHOU Rongyi, YANG Bifan, LI Li, LU Yi. Research on key causes and transmission paths of hazardous chemicals tank truck transportation accidents[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(4): 172-178.

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致因环节	具体原因	起数	占比/%	致因环节	具体原因	起数	占比/%
机车车辆	轮胎起火爆炸	37	6.6	作业人员	应急处理能力不足	18	51.5
	发动机、线路等故障	9			错误操作	479
	刹车失灵	16			非法改装车辆	3
	方向盘失控	7			违反交通规则	24
罐体	罐体裂缝	36	9.0		疲劳驾驶	12
	阀门或法兰等故障	38		道路与天气	极端天气	39
	阀门或法兰等故障	38					5.3
	罐体焊接不牢	8
	罐体焊接不牢	8			不良路段	16
	其他安全附件故障	12			不良路段	16
危化品	自燃、爆炸	27	3.0	交通状况	被车辆追尾	219	24.6
危化品	产生化学反应	4	3.0	交通状况	紧急避让车辆或行人	37	24.6

类别	具体致因因子	解释说明
人为因素	违章作业u₁	运输人员非法改装车辆或违反交通法,超速超载行驶,甚至闯红灯等
	错误操作u₂	驾驶人员行车过程中操作失误,如急刹、急转弯、错把油门当刹车等
	疲劳驾驶u₃	驾驶人员长时间行车不注意休息,出现疲劳驾驶
	应急处理能力不足u₄	运输人员应急知识和经验缺乏,处理紧急情况不当,导致事故发生
设备及储物状态	使用材料不合格u₅	使用的组装材料不符合危化品运输车辆的规定,鲁棒性较差
	车辆零部件故障u₆	机车车辆零部件出现故障,或性能不良,如轮胎起火爆炸、线路老化
	罐体及安全附件故障u₇	罐体破裂或其安全附件性能不良甚至脱落等情况
	危化品固有特性u₈	危化品具有燃爆性、腐蚀性、毒性等理化特性
环境状况	交通车辆状况u₉	行驶路段交通流量大或大型客货车多,易出现车辆碰撞、追尾等事故
	不良路段u₁₀	路面崎岖颠簸、连续转弯、光线暗淡等路段
	极端天气u₁₁	出现冰雹、暴风雨雪、冰冻灾害、沙尘暴、台风等极端天气
安全管理	检查维修不到位u₁₂	日常的安全检查不到位,未能及时维修保养故障车辆
	教育培训不到位u₁₃	运输企业未对运输人员进行专门的教育培训、技能培训,或效果不好
	监督管理不到位u₁₄	监督管理不到位包括运输企业和运输监管部门的共同监督未落实
	应急救援不到位u₁₅	企业未建立专门的应急救援队伍,或与地方救援队伍联动不及时

因子	u₁	u₂	u₃	u₄	u₅	u₆	u₇	u₈	u₉	u₁₀	u₁₂	u₁₃	u₁₄	u₁₅
u₁	0	4	1	3	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
u₂	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
u₃	1	4	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
u₄	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
u₅	0	0	0	0	0	4	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
u₆	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
u₇	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
u₈	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
u₉	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
u₁₀	1	2	0	2	0	3	3	0	2	0	0	0	0	3
u₁₁	2	3	3	3	0	3	3	3	4	4	0	0	0	3
u₁₂	0	0	0	0	1	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	1	0
u₁₃	4	4	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1
u₁₄	4	1	1	0	4	2	2	0	0	0	4	4	0	4
u₁₅	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0

因子	F_i	E_i	M_i	N_i	M_i排序	属性
u₁	0.499	0.436	0.934	0.063	7	原因
u₂	0.182	1.087	1.269	-0.905	1	结果
u₃	0.367	0.330	0.697	0.038	11	原因
u₄	0.291	0.684	0.975	-0.393	5	结果
u₅	0.391	0.215	0.605	0.176	14	原因
u₆	0.035	0.806	0.841	-0.772	8	结果
u₇	0.073	0.890	0.963	-0.817	6	结果
u₈	0.226	0.343	0.568	-0.117	15	结果
u₉	0.153	0.530	0.683	-0.377	12	结果
u₁₀	0.590	0.172	0.763	0.418	10	原因
u₁₁	1.249	0.000	1.249	1.249	2	原因
u₁₂	0.447	0.177	0.624	0.270	13	原因
u₁₃	0.885	0.177	1.062	0.708	4	原因
u₁₄	1.160	0.076	1.236	1.084	3	原因
u₁₅	0.075	0.700	0.775	-0.624	9	结果

因子	u₁	u₂	u₃	u₄	u₅	u₆	u₇	u₈	u₉	u₁₀	u₁₁	u₁₂	u₁₃	u₁₄	u₁₅
u₁	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
u₂	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
u₃	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
u₄	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
u₅	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
u₆	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
u₇	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
u₈	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
u₉	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
u₁₀	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
u₁₁	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	1
u₁₂	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
u₁₃	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
u₁₄	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1
u₁₅	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1