基于Grey-DEMATEL的煤矿隐患关键因素研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.S1.0020

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为有效减少煤矿事故的发生,提出结合灰色理论与决策实验室分析法(Grey-DEMATEL),系统分析煤矿隐患的关键因素,通过收集大量煤矿事故数据和相关文献,建立涵盖多个维度的煤矿隐患指标体系,并基于实际调研和专家评估构建13个隐患指标。并运用Grey-DEMATEL方法定量分析隐患因素,识别隐患的原因因素和结果因素。研究结果表明:信息传递不准确、设备维护不及时以及工人违章作业是导致煤矿隐患的主要原因因素,而隐患结果因素包括设备故障、环境问题和管理缺陷。通过引入灰色理论,改进的Grey-DEMATEL模型可避免传统模型中权重计算的偏差,能够为煤矿隐患的识别和管理提供更为准确的结果。

关键词: 煤矿隐患, 灰色理论, 决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL), 关键因素, 隐患管理

Abstract:

To effectively reduce the occurrence of coal mine accidents, a systematic analysis of key factors contributing to hidden dangers in coal mines was made by integrating grey theory with the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (Grey-DEMATEL) approach. By collecting extensive data on coal mine accidents and relevant literature, an indicator system encompassing multiple dimensions of hidden dangers in coal mines was established. Based on actual surveys and expert evaluations, 13 hidden danger indicators were constructed. The Grey-DEMATEL approach was then employed for quantitative analysis of these hidden danger factors, enabling the identification of causal and resultant factors associated with hidden dangers. The research findings indicate that the primary causal factors leading to hidden dangers in coal mines include inaccurate information transmission, overdue equipment maintenance, and workers' violations of safety protocols. The resultant factors of hidden dangers comprise equipment failures, environmental issues, and management deficiencies. By introducing grey theory, the improved Grey-DEMATEL model can mitigate the bias in weight calculations commonly found in traditional models, providing more accurate results for the identification and management of hidden dangers in coal mines.

Key words: hidden dangers in coal mines, grey theory, decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (EMATEL), key factors, hidden danger management

中图分类号:

X936

王占宝, 刘小杰, 刘鹏. 基于Grey-DEMATEL的煤矿隐患关键因素研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(S1): 39-45.

WANG Zhanbao, LIU Xiaojie, LIU Peng. Research on key factors of hidden dangers in coal mines based on Grey-DEMATEL[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(S1): 39-45.

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语义变量	打分	灰数
没有影响	0	[0,0]
较小影响	1	[0,0.25]
一般影响	2	[0.25,0.5]
较大影响	3	[0.5,0.75]
极大影响	4	[0.75,1]

语义	区间灰数
不重要	[0,0.3]
不太重要	[0.3,0.5]
重要	[0.4,0.7]
比较重要	[0.5,0.9]
非常重要	[0.7,1]

专家	权重
从业人员1	[0.3,0.5)
从业人员2	[0.5,0.9]
专家1	[0.4,0.7)
专家2	[0.7,1]

指标	S₁	S₂	S₃	S₄	S₅	S₆	S₇	S₈	S₉	S₁₀	S₁₁	S₁₂	S₁₃
S₁	0	0.9	1.25	1.6	1.6	1.3	0.95	0.95	1.3	0.95	1.65	1.65	0.95
S₂	1.3	0	0.73	1.3	1.15	1.5	1.5	0.8	0.85	0.85	0.85	0.8	0.85
S₃	1.8	1.65	0	1.1	1.3	1.3	1.65	1.65	0.95	2.2	0.95	1.3	0.95
S₄	1.65	1.65	1.65	0	1.85	1.5	1.5	3.2	2.35	0	0.85	1.5	0
S₅	1.75	2.6	2	3.2	0	1.6	1.55	1.15	1.3	1.3	0.75	1.1	1.75
S₆	2	1.6	1.6	2.6	0.55	0	0.55	0.55	0.2	0.2	1.75	0.55	2.6
S₇	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.6	1.55	1.4	0	2.05	0.2	1.8	1.8	1.4	0.2
S₈	2.65	2.65	3.02	3.02	2.35	1.4	1.4	0	0	2.85	2.85	1.9	0.2
S₉	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.6	0.85	0	0.85	1.3	0	0	2.85	1.9	1.9
S₁₀	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.6	0.2	1.8	1.8	1.3	1.8	0	2.85	1.9	0
S₁₁	2.6	1.8	2.6	2.6	0.2	0.2	1.8	0.2	1.3	1.3	0	1.75	0
S₁₂	2.25	2.6	2.25	2.9	1.4	1.4	1.4	0	1.6	1.4	1.4	0	2.1
S₁₃	2.6	2.1	2.1	2.9	1.25	0	1.85	0	1.65	1.55	1.4	2	0

指标	D	C	M	R
S₁	3.068	3.262	6.330	-0.194
S₂	3.114	3.044	6.158	0.070
S₃	3.266	3.213	6.479	0.052
S₄	3.959	3.820	7.779	0.138
S₅	2.935	3.143	6.078	-0.207
S₆	2.204	2.775	4.980	-0.570
S₇	2.666	2.881	5.547	-0.215
S₈	3.962	2.959	6.922	1.002
S₉	2.911	2.452	5.36	0.458
S₁₀	3.322	2.493	5.815	0.829
S₁₁	2.291	3.129	5.421	-0.838
S₁₂	2.734	3.227	5.961	-0.493
S₁₃	2.603	2.634	5.238	-0.030