基于组合赋权-偏序集的应急供应链可靠性评价

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.05.0700

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为协调好应急供应链中物资的分配与使用,基于文献分析等方法提炼应急供应链可靠性评价指标,建立由组织保障可靠性、系统制度可靠性以及运作流程可靠性3个一级指标及其对应的17个二级指标组成的应急供应链可靠性评价指标体系;利用层次分析法(AHP)、熵权法(EWM)和三角模糊数计算指标权重,将蕴含权重信息的偏序关系引入评价研究中,构建组合赋权-偏序集模型评价应急供应链的可靠性,并应用该模型评价分析C市5个县级城市的应急供应链可靠性水平。结果表明:5个县级城市的应急供应链可靠性程度可分为4类,其中,地区03的可靠性水平高,地区04、02的可靠性水平较高,地区05的可靠性水平中等,而地区01的可靠性水平低;通过对比分析,获取各地区的优势环节和薄弱环节以及需改进的地方。该评价模型可有效评估应急供应链可靠性水平。

关键词: 组合赋权, 偏序集, 应急供应链, 可靠性评价, 层次分析法(AHP), 熵权法(EWM)

Abstract:

In order to coordinate the distribution and use of materials in the emergency supply chain, the reliability evaluation indexes of the emergency supply chain were refined based on literature analysis. The reliability evaluation index system of the emergency supply chain was established, which was composed of three first-level indicators of organizational guarantee reliability, system institutional reliability and operation process reliability and 17 corresponding second-level indicators. AHP, EWM, and trigonometric fuzzy number were used to calculate the index weights, and the partial order relationship containing weight information was introduced into the evaluation, and the combined weighting-partial order set model was constructed to evaluate the reliability of the emergency supply chain. The reliability level of the emergency supply chain in five county-level cities of city C was evaluated and analyzed by using the model. The results show that the reliability of the emergency supply chain in the five county-level cities can be divided into four categories, among which the reliability level of region 03 is high, the reliability level of region 04 and 02 is relatively high, the reliability level of region 05 is medium, and the reliability level of region 01 is low. Through comparative analysis, the strengths and weaknesses of each region, and the areas needing improvement are obtained. This evaluation model can effectively evaluate the reliability level of the emergency supply chain.

Key words: combined empowerment, partial order set, emergency supply chain, reliability evaluation, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), entropy weight method (EWM)

中图分类号:

X913.4安全系统工程

王丹, 高雯雯. 基于组合赋权-偏序集的应急供应链可靠性评价[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(5): 231-237.

WANG Dan, GAO Wenwen. Emergency supply chain reliability evaluation based on combined empowerment-bias order set[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(5): 231-237.

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目标层	准则层	指标层	数据类型
应急供应链可靠性U	组织保障可靠性U₁	指挥决策机制水平U₁₁	语言评价值
		储备中心辐射范围U₁₂	数值
		人财物协调能力U₁₃	语言评价值
		法律保障能力U₁₄	语言评价值
		资金保障能力U₁₅	数值
		基础设施建设水平U₁₆	语言评价值
	系统制度可靠性U₂	预案机制建设水平U₂₁	语言评价值
		响应机制建设水平U₂₂	语言评价值
		经济通道机制建设水平U₂₃	语言评价值
		评估系统建设水平U₂₄	语言评价值
		应急物资筹备率和监管能力U₂₅	区间数
	运作流程可靠性U₃	信息传递及时性和准确性U₃₁	区间数
		实时信息发布共享能力U₃₂	语言评价值
		信息协同能力U₃₃	语言评价值
		应急物资运输及时性以及完好率U₃₄	区间数
		运输网络管理能力以及安全性U₃₅	语言评价值
		配送路径优化能力U₃₆	语言评价值

指标层指标	样本1	样本2	样本3	样本4	样本5
U₁₁	V₃	V₄	V₃	V₅	V₂
U₁₂	0.444	0.389	0.333	0.667	0.556
U₁₃	V₄	V₁	V₅	V₃	V₀
U₁₄	V₁	V₄	V₃	V₂	V₅
U₁₅	0.524	0.489	0.447	0.419	0.581
U₁₆	V₂	V₅	V₆	V₄	V₃
U₂₁	V₃	V₀	V₅	V₄	V₁
U₂₂	V₃	V₄	V₃	V₆	V₂
U₂₃	V₃	V₃	V₅	V₆	V₁
U₂₄	[0.875, 1.000]	[0.533, 0.875]	[0.533, 0.667]	[0.600, 0.800]	[0.625, 0.870]
U₂₅	V₄	V₀	V₆	V₃	V₁
U₃₁	[0.733, 0.933]	[0.333, 0.533]	[0.800, 0.867]	[0.467, 0.533]	[0.400, 0.467]
U₃₂	V₁	V₄	V₆	V₂	V₅
U₃₃	V₂	V₅	V₆	V₄	V₂
U₃₄	[0.875, 1.000]	[0.533, 0.875]	[0.533, 0.667]	[0.600, 0.800]	[0.625, 0.870]
U₃₅	V₃	V₂	V₆	V₄	V₁
U₃₆	V₂	V₄	V₆	V₅	V₀

目标层	权重	准则层	指标层	权重	影响程度	排序
U	0.62	U₁	U₁₁	0.18	0.117	1
			U₁₂	0.18	0.117	2
			U₁₃	0.18	0.117	3
			U₁₄	0.15	0.090	5
			U₁₅	0.18	0.117	4
			U₁₆	0.13	0.062	7
	0.22	U₂	U₂₁	0.31	0.068	6
			U₂₂	0.18	0.039	10
			U₂₃	0.24	0.053	8
			U₂₄	0.13	0.029	12
			U₂₅	0.14	0.031	11
	0.16	U₃	U₃₁	0.13	0.021	17
			U₃₂	0.14	0.022	15
			U₃₃	0.16	0.026	13
			U₃₄	0.16	0.026	14
			U₃₅	0.14	0.022	16
			U₃₆	0.27	0.043	9

地区编号	各指标评分的算术平均数
地区编号	U₁₁	U₁₂	U₁₃	U₁₅	U₁₄	U₂₁	U₁₆	U₂₃	U₃₆	U₂₂	U₂₅	U₂₄	U₃₃	U₃₄	U₃₂	U₃₅	U₃₁
01	54.0	61.5	55.5	53.6	54.0	59.6	60.5	53.9	59.0	61.4	54.2	53.7	60.4	57.6	54.2	52.2	57.1
02	81.9	74.8	81.9	77.6	79.7	78.4	74.9	81.5	79.1	72.4	74.8	73.8	78.0	73.3	74.4	78.0	77.5
03	83.6	84.3	80.7	77.9	86.4	82.8	78.6	83.3	83.4	80.6	82.4	80.2	81.3	81.5	78.0	78.7	77.5
04	76.7	82.0	74.0	72.5	92.5	57.6	62.6	84.0	89.7	59.6	74.9	48.9	51.9	67.7	66.9	63.4	51.8
05	68.8	55.9	84.0	85.8	61.1	83.1	67.3	92.0	78.7	54.6	87.1	79.8	79.1	58.6	68.5	91.6	92.9