中国安全科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (1): 179-184.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.030

• 公共安全 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于毒性伤害指标的疏散路径规划模型

刘惠临1,2 高级实验师, 沈非1 副教授   

  1. 1 安徽师范大学 国土资源与旅游学院,安徽 芜湖 241000
    2 安徽理工大学 计算机科学与工程学院,安徽 淮南232001
  • 收稿日期:2017-10-10 出版日期:2018-01-28 发布日期:2020-09-28
  • 作者简介:刘惠临 (1979—),男,安徽合肥人,博士研究生,高级实验师,从事GIS时空建模与环境灾害模拟研究。E-mail:liuhl@aust.edu.cn。
  • 基金资助:
    安徽省哲社规划项目(AHSKY2015D72)。

Evacuation route planning model based on toxic injury index

LIU Huilin1,2, SHEN Fei1   

  1. 1 College of Territorial Resources and Tourism,Anhui Normal University,Wuhu Anhui 241000,China
    2 College of Computer Science and Engineering,Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan Anhui 232001,China
  • Received:2017-10-10 Online:2018-01-28 Published:2020-09-28

摘要: 为定量研究毒气泄漏事故中有害物质扩散对疏散路径选择行为的影响,以疏散过程中人员健康伤害最低为目标,构建新的疏散路径规划模型。在离散化改进毒性负荷计算公式的基础上,参照疏散道路网络图描述的空间位置信息,采用高斯气体扩散模型计算各疏散路段的毒性负荷值及致死概率等人员毒性伤害指标,从而选择最优疏散路径;然后,以液氨泄漏事故为研究案例,对比最短和最优疏散路径,以验证模型的有效性。研究成果表明:由于毒气浓度空间分布的差异,行走距离较短的疏散方案反而可能导致较高的伤害概率;为尽量减少人员伤亡,事故应急疏散过程需要有针对性的规划引导。

关键词: 应急疏散, 毒气泄漏, 高斯扩散模型, 毒性负荷, 致死概率

Abstract: In toxic gas leakage accidents, the spread of harmful substances has a significant impact on the evacuees' route choice behavior. In view of this fact, a new model was built for planning evacuation routes. The minimum damage to evacuees was taken as the target of evacuation process planning. Discretization improvements were made on the formula of toxic load. The toxicity injury indexes for various evacuation route sections, such as the toxic load value, the probability of death, were calculated by using the Gauss gas diffusion model on the basis of the information on the position shown in the evacuation toad network graph, so as to select the optimal evacuation route. The model was applied to an assumed ammonia-leakage accident. The research results show that due to the difference in the toxic gas concentration distribution, an evacuation scheme resulting in a shorter walking distance, is likely to lead to a higher damage probability, and that in order to reduce evacuees' damage and casualty, the emergency-evacuation process needs an accurate guide based on the model.

Key words: emergency evacuation, toxic gas leaking, Gaussian diffusion model, toxic load, death probability

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