突发灾害事故应急决策冲突协调模型

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.03.029

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (3): 174-179.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.03.029

突发灾害事故应急决策冲突协调模型

夏登友¹ 教授, 高平^2,3, 任少云¹, 朱红伟¹, 张云博¹

1 中国人民武装警察部队学院消防指挥系,河北廊坊 065000;
2 中国人民武装警察部队学院研究生部,河北廊坊 065000;
3 甘肃省消防救援总队白银支队,甘肃白银 730900

收稿日期:2018-11-09 修回日期:2019-01-25 发布日期:2020-11-26
作者简介:夏登友 (1973—),男,安徽庐江人,博士,教授,主要从事灭火及应急救援方面的研究。E-mail:xiadengyou@126.com。
基金资助:
河北省社会科学基金资助(HB17GL097)。

Conflict coordination model for emergency decision making in disaster accidents

XIA Dengyou¹, GAO Ping^2,3, REN Shaoyun¹, ZHU Hongwei¹, ZHANG Yunbo¹

1 School of Fire Command, Chinese Peoples' Armed Police Force Academy, Langfang Hebei 065000, China;
2 School of Graduate, Chinese Peoples' Armed Police Force Academy, Langfang Hebei 065000, China;
3 Baiyin Branch, Gansu General Fire Brigade, Baiyin Gansu 730900, China

Received:2018-11-09 Revised:2019-01-25 Published:2020-11-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对突发灾害事故应急决策过程中存在的专家群体之间的冲突问题,构建突发灾害事故应急决策冲突协调模型。首先,根据冲突与一致性相对的关系,基于模糊逻辑理论提出一种应急决策冲突程度表示方法,定量表示应急决策冲突程度,确定冲突阈值;其次,结合应急决策冲突实际,提出冲突协调策略,设计冲突协调步骤;最后,将该模型应用于实际案例中,验证模型的合理性、可行性。研究表明:该模型能够全面反映应急决策专家的偏好,定量表示应急决策冲突程度,并具有协调消解决策者之间冲突的作用。

关键词: 突发灾害事故, 应急决策, 模糊逻辑理论, 冲突程度, 冲突协调策略

Abstract: For the sake of resolving conflicts in emergency decision making process of disaster accidents, a model of conflict coordination for decision-making was established. Firstly, according to the relationship between conflict and consistency, a representation method for conflict degree of emergency decision making was proposed based on the fuzzy logic theory, and the conflict threshold was determined. Then the conflict coordination strategies were proposed and the steps of conflict coordination were designed in combination with actual situation of conflict. Finally, the rationality and feasibility of the model were verified through an actual case. The study indicates that this model can fully reflect experts' preferences in emergency decision making, quantify the degree of conflict, and could coordinate and eliminate the conflict among decision makers.

Key words: emergency, emergency decision making, fuzzy logic theory, conflict degree, conflict coordination strategy

中图分类号:

X928.9

夏登友, 高平, 任少云, 朱红伟, 张云博. 突发灾害事故应急决策冲突协调模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(3): 174-179.

XIA Dengyou, GAO Ping, REN Shaoyun, ZHU Hongwei, ZHANG Yunbo. Conflict coordination model for emergency decision making in disaster accidents[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(3): 174-179.

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突发灾害事故应急决策冲突协调模型

Conflict coordination model for emergency decision making in disaster accidents

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