考虑心理异质性的地铁应急疏散行为决策建模*

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.10.017

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (10): 119-126.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.10.017

考虑心理异质性的地铁应急疏散行为决策建模^*

王立晓副教授, 于江波, 孙小慧副教授

新疆大学建筑工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐 830047

收稿日期:2021-07-09 修回日期:2021-09-08 出版日期:2021-10-28 发布日期:2022-04-28
作者简介:王立晓 (1976—),女,新疆石河子人,博士,副教授,主要从事交通规划、交通行为分析以及智能交通系统等方面的研究。E-mail:xjwanglx@foxmail.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(71861032);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金资助(2018D01C071)。

Decision-making modeling of metro emergency evacuation behavior considering psychological heterogeneity

WANG Lixiao, YU Jiangbo, SUN Xiaohui

School of Civil Engineering, Xinjiang University, Urumqi Xinjiang 830047, China

Received:2021-07-09 Revised:2021-09-08 Online:2021-10-28 Published:2022-04-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为深入探索地铁应急疏散过程中疏散者的心理异质性及其路径选择行为机制,建立潜类别模型(LCM)。首先通过潜在剖面分析(LPA),利用心理潜变量将人群分类,并根据拟合指标确定最优心理潜类别数目;然后通过方差分析验证分类的可靠性;最后分析不同心理潜类别人群的路径选择偏好,对比模型预测路径选择结果与实际选择结果。研究表明:疏散者可分为5种心理潜类别,其中第3类人群只倾向于选择最短路径,第5类人群对最短路径的选择偏好近似于对不拥挤路径的选择偏好,其路径选择策略更加灵活;LCM相比于不分类的总体模型预测准确率更高,并且更加接近实际选择概率。

关键词: 心理异质性, 地铁应急疏散, 路径选择, 潜类别模型(LCM), 心理潜变量

Abstract: In order to explore psychological heterogeneity of evacuees and their route choice behavior mechanism, a LCM was established. Firstly, psychological latent variables were used to classify people through latent profile analysis(LPA), and optimal number of psychological latent classes was determined. Then, reliability of the classification was verified through analysis of variance. Finally, route choice preferences of people in different psychological latent classes were analyzed, and their choosing results predicted by LCM were compared with actual choices. The results demonstrate that evacuees can be divided into 5 psychological latent classes, among which the third class only tends to choose the shortest route, and preference of the fifth for the shortest one is similar to that for non-crowded route, and their strategy in choosing routes is more flexible. Compared with general models, LCM features higher accuracy in predicting choice results, and its probability is closer to reality.

Key words: psychological heterogeneity, metro emergency evacuation, route choice, latent class model (LCM), psychological latent variables

中图分类号:

X911

王立晓, 于江波, 孙小慧. 考虑心理异质性的地铁应急疏散行为决策建模^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(10): 119-126.

WANG Lixiao, YU Jiangbo, SUN Xiaohui. Decision-making modeling of metro emergency evacuation behavior considering psychological heterogeneity[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(10): 119-126.

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考虑心理异质性的地铁应急疏散行为决策建模^*

Decision-making modeling of metro emergency evacuation behavior considering psychological heterogeneity

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