中国安全科学学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (3): 169-175.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.03.030

• 公共安全 • 上一篇    

基于累积前景理论的应急物流路径选择方法

王玮强, 张春民 副教授, 朱昌锋 教授, 方刚   

  1. 兰州交通大学 交通运输学院,甘肃 兰州 730070
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-11 修回日期:2017-01-12 发布日期:2020-11-22
  • 作者简介:王玮强 (1991—),男,甘肃武威人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为交通运输优化理论与方法。E-mail:wq_wang1210@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助(61364028);教育部人文社会科学项目(15YJAZH106;15XJAZH002);兰州市科技局研政产合作支撑计划项目(2011-1-111)。

Route selection method for emergency logistics based on cumulative prospect theory

WANG Weiqiang, ZHANG Chunmin, ZHU Changfeng, FANG Gang   

  1. School of Traffic and Transportation, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou Gansu 730070, China
  • Received:2016-12-11 Revised:2017-01-12 Published:2020-11-22

摘要: 为提高应急物资运输的高效性和可靠性,在充分考虑决策者的主观因素和风险态度后,建立一个基于累积前景理论(CPT)的应急物流路径选择模型。根据应急物流的特点,对CPT模型做了多参考点的延伸。选取物资运送的时间和运量作为模型的2个异质参考点,并在考虑时间可靠性和路径重新构造性的基础上,构建了2个参考点取值的数学模型。在算例部分,为对比决策者不同的风险态度对结果的影响,将决策者分为风险追求型和规避型。算例结果表明,该方法符合实际决策机制,有助于提升救援效率,而且参数的设置对路径前景值有重要影响。

关键词: 累积前景理论(CPT); 多参考点; 应急物流; 路径选择; 可靠性

Abstract: In order to improve the efficiency and reliability of emergency supply transportation, a CPT based model was built after careful consideration of the subjective factors and attitudes of decision makers to risk,for path selection for emergency logistics. Firstly, multiple reference points in the CPT model were expanded according to the features of emergency logistics. Then, travel time and transport volume were selected as two heterogeneous reference points of the model. Two models were built for assuming values to the reference point based on the travel time reliability and the path reconfigurability. Finally, to compare the effects decision makers' risk attitude have on the result of decision making, the decision makers were classified into a risk seeking group and a risk avoiding group in a case study. The results of the case study show that the method accords with the actual decision-making mechanism, by which the rescue efficiency will be effectively enhanced. Moreover, parameter setting has a vital impact on the prospect value of the path.

Key words: cumulative prospect theory(CPT), multiple reference points, emergency logistics, route selection, reliability

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