船舶修造企业火灾事故特征挖掘与致因分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.03.0368

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探究船舶修造企业(SRBE)火灾事故的特征和致因,运用数理统计方法研究118起火灾事故,从事故的时空属性、火灾三要素和伤害严重程度进行事故特征挖掘;并基于改进的人因分析与分类系统(HFACS-SRBE)事故致因模型,采用卡方检验、让步比(OR)、克莱姆V系数(Cramer' s V)方法,分析致因因素之间的相关性及其强弱。结果表明:14:00—16:00最易发生火灾事故和人员伤亡;火灾事故主要发生地点在船舶区域,占比为33.90%;59.19%的点火源是动火作业;无人员伤害、轻伤和轻微伤、重伤和死亡数量比值为61:54:3。通过相关性及其强弱检验后确定15组相邻层级致因因素存在相关性,并得到26条完整事故致因链。其中,沟通与协调→运行计划不适当→不良心理状态→决策差错是导致船舶修造火灾事故发生关联性强度最大的事故致因链。

关键词: 船舶修造企业(SRBE), 火灾事故, 致因分析, 人因分析与分类系统(HFACS)模型, 卡方检验, 让步比(OR), 克莱姆V系数(Cramer's V)

Abstract:

To investigate the features and causation factors of fire accidents in SRBE, 118 fire accidents were studied using method of mathematical statistics. Firstly, accident features were mined in terms of the temporal and spatial attributes of accidents, the three elements of fire and the severity of injuries. Then, based on the improved HFACS-SRBE accident causation model, methods such as Chi-square test, OR and Cramer's V were used to analyze the correlations and their strength between the causal factors. The results show that 14:00-16:00 is the most prone to fire accidents and casualties. The main location of fire accidents is in the ship area, accounting for 33.90%. 59.19% of the ignition source comes from the ignition operation. Ratio of no injuries, slight and minor injuries, serious injuries and deaths is 61:54:3. Through the test of correlations and their strength, it is determined that 15 groups of adjacent level causal factors are correlated, and 26 complete accident causation chains are obtained. Covers communication and coordination→inappropriate operation plans→bad psychological state→decision-making errors is the accident causation chain with the greatest strength of correlation leading to the occurrence of fire accidents in ship repair and building enterprises.

Key words: ship repair and building enterprises(SRBE), fire accident, causation analysis, human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS) model, Chi-square test, odds ratio (OR), Cramer's V

中图分类号:

李显, 焦宇, 陈文涛, 史旦达, 康与涛. 船舶修造企业火灾事故特征挖掘与致因分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(3): 29-38.

LI Xian, JIAO Yu, CHEN Wentao, SHI Danda, KANG Yutao. Feature mining and causative analysis of fire accidents in ship repair and building enterprises[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(3): 29-38.

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空间特征	内场	厂区外	码头或坞	船舶	车间	总计
船体车间	12(9)	0(0)	15(4)	20(14)	0(0)	47(27)
机电车间	6(2)	0(0)	10(4)	7(4)	0(0)	23(10)
涂装车间	2(1)	0(0)	3(3)	2(1)	3(2)	10(7)
搭载车间	2(2)	0(0)	1(1)	2(2)	0(0)	5(5)
船台车间	1(0)	0(0)	1(1)	3(1)	0(0)	5(2)
建造部	4(4)	0(0)	0(0)	0(0)	0(0)	4(4)
分段车间	3(3)	0(0)	0(0)	1(0)	0(0)	4(3)
内业车间	1(1)	0(0)	2(0)	0(0)	1(1)	4(2)
舾装车间	0(0)	0(0)	2(2)	2(1)	0(0)	4(3)
机修车间	1(1)	0(0)	0(0)	1(2)	0(0)	2(3)
行政部	1(0)	1(0)	0(0)	0(0)	0(0)	2(0)
资产部	2(1)	0(0)	0(0)	0(0)	0(0)	2(1)
总务部	1(1)	0(0)	0(0)	0(0)	0(0)	1(1)
事业部	0(0)	0(0)	1(0)	0(0)	0(0)	1(0)
物资部	1(0)	0(0)	0(0)	0(0)	0(0)	1(0)
质量部	0(0)	0(0)	0(0)	0(0)	1(1)	1(1)
轮机车间	0(0)	0(0)	0(0)	1(1)	0(0)	1(1)
上建车间	0(0)	0(0)	0(0)	1(0)	0(0)	1(0)
总计	37(25)	1(0)	35(15)	40(27)	5(4)	118(71)

点火源分类		分类说明	事故起数	事故数量子分类占比/%	事故数量整体占比/ %
直接火源	明火	电焊火星	22	25.88	18.64
		气/切割火星	27	31.76	22.88
		高温铁屑/水/块	10	11.76	8.47
		割炬/烘枪/ 烤把火焰	23	27.06	19.49
		未熄灭的烟头	3	3.53	2.54
	电火花	电气设备产生的电弧和静电火花	8	100	6.78
	雷击	瞬间的高压放电	0	100	0
间接火源	加热自燃起火	热表面	3	13.64	2.54
		热辐射	7	31.82	5.93
		线路发热起火	10	45.45	8.47
		摩擦撞击压缩起火	2	9.09	1.69
		聚焦起火	0	0	0
	本身自燃起火 (无明火和外来热源)	物质本身自燃起火	0	0	0
	本身自燃起火 (无明火和外来热源)	化学反应热腐蚀/ 自燃起火	3	100	2.54

可燃物分类	分类说明	事故起数	事故起数子分类占比/%	事故起数整体占比/%
设备财产	电器设备	14	16.67	11.86
	油布/三防布/回丝布等布料	14	5.95	11.86
	油箱/塑料桶/ 管线/管带	25	3.57	21.19
	化学品	14	8.33	11.86
	麻绳/安全网	5	2.38	4.24
	手套/防护服/劳保鞋等防护品	3	10.71	2.54
	木质/纸类材料	7	1.19	5.93
	生活/作业废弃物	2	3.57	1.69
人体组织	面颌部	9	32.14	7.63
	脑	1	3.57	0.85
	眼睛	3	10.71	2.54
	耳朵	2	7.14	1.69
	腕及手	13	46.43	11.02
设备财产+ 人体组织	衣物+上体	21	52.5	17.8
设备财产+ 人体组织	衣物+下体	19	47.5	16.1

标准分类	修理改装	其他	船舶与海工建造	总计
无伤害事故	19	12	30	61
微伤事故	14	9	20	43
轻伤事故	6	2	3	11
重伤事故	0	0	1	1
死亡事故	1	0	1	2
总计	40	23	55	118

致因因素	卡方检验		Cramer's V	OR	95%置信区间
致因因素	χ²	p	Cramer's V	OR	下限	上限
组织影响层级和不安全监督层级
L_4-1和L_3-2	23.178	0.000	0.443	8.9	3.4	23.7
L_4-2和L_3-2	23.356	0.000	0.445	10.3	3.6	29.4
L_4-3和L_3-2	12.454	0.000	0.325	5.3	2.0	14.2
L_4-3和L_3-3	6.320	0.012	0.231	2.7	1.2	5.8
L_4-4和L_3-2	5.672	0.017	0.219	1.5	1.3	1.7
不安全监督层级和不安全行为的前提条件层级
L_3-2和L_21-2	10.551	0.001	0.299	6.7	1.9	23.6
L_3-2和L_22-2	9.042	0.003	0.277	4.0	1.6	10.2
L_3-2和L_21-4	10.582	0.001	0.299	4.1	1.7	9.7
L_3-3和L_21-4	5.434	0.020	0.215	3.1	1.2	8.4
不安全行为的前提条件层级与不安全行为层级
L_21-2和 L_11-1	8.016	0.005	0.261	3.4	1.4	7.9
L_21-2和 L_11-2	12.092	0.001	0.320	4.1	1.8	9.4
L_21-2和 L_11-3	6.152	0.013	0.228	3.6	1.3	10.2
L_21-2和 L_12-1	10.012	0.002	0.291	3.7	1.6	8.5
L_21-4和 L_11-2	6.982	0.008	0.243	3.4	1.3	8.7
L_23-3和 L_11-1	5.220	0.022	0.210	3.0	1.1	7.5