基于WSR-可拓云理论的地铁车站火灾安全韧性评估

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.01.1377

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为解决地铁车站火灾安全韧性评估过程中模糊性、随机性等问题,以有效提升地铁车站火灾安全韧性水平,构建基于物理-事理-人理(WSR)-可拓云理论的地铁车站火灾安全韧性评估方法。首先,以WSR方法论为基础,围绕“物理”“事理”“人理”分析地铁车站火灾安全韧性影响因素,结合韧性吸收、抵抗、恢复和适应能力,从设备因素、环境因素、组织管理、物质技术和人员因素5个方面构建地铁车站火灾安全韧性评估指标体系;其次,基于盲数理论构建盲数矩阵并计算定性指标综合得分,结合可拓云理论得出地铁车站火灾安全韧性等级;最后,以青岛地铁某站为例开展实例分析。结果表明: 该地铁车站火灾安全韧性等级为Ⅳ级,处于较高韧性水平,可信度因子θ = 0.003 4 < 0.01,表明评估结果具有较高可信度。WSR-可拓云理论评估模型可为地铁车站火灾安全韧性评估提供理论依据。

关键词: 物理-事理-人理(WSR)方法论, 可拓云理论, 地铁车站, 火灾安全韧性评估, 盲数理论

Abstract:

In order to solve the problems of ambiguity and randomness in the process of fire safety resilience assessment of subway stations, and then effectively improve the level of fire safety resilience of subway stations, the fire safety resilience assessment model for subway stations based on WSR- extension cloud theory was constructed. First, based on WSR methodology, the factors affecting the fire safety resilience of subway stations were analyzed around "physical", "matter", and "human". Combined with the characterization of the resilience absorption, resistance, recovery and adaptive ability, the fire safety resilience assessment index system of subway stations was established in five aspects, namely, equipment factors, environmental factors, organization and management, material and technology, and personnel factors. Second, based on the blind number theory to construct the blind number matrix and calculate the comprehensive score of qualitative indexes, the fire safety resilience level of subway stations is derived by using the theory of extension cloud theory. Finally, a station of the Qingdao subway was used as an example to carry out the example analysis. The results show that the subway station fire safety resilience level of Ⅳ, in the higher resilience level, the credibility factor = 0.003 4 <0.01, indicating that the assessment results have a high degree of credibility. The WSR-extension cloud theory assessment model can provide a theoretical basis for the fire safety resilience assessment of subway stations.

Key words: Wuli-Shili-Renli(WSR) methodology, extension cloud theory, subway stations, fire safety resilience assessment, blind number theory

中图分类号:

X932爆炸安全与防火、防爆

汤青慧, 刘硕, 张瑾. 基于WSR-可拓云理论的地铁车站火灾安全韧性评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(1): 154-162.

TANG Qinghui, LIU Shuo, ZHANG Jin. Resilience assessment of fire safety in subway stations based on WSR-extension cloud theory[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(1): 154-162.

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韧性等级	等级名称	等级描述
Ⅰ级	低韧性	地铁车站系统吸收、抵抗、恢复和适应火灾能力低,火灾发生概率高,火灾冲击下地铁车站系统不能正常运行,火灾扰动后难以恢复到正常运行状态,无法将韧性优化到更高层次
Ⅱ级	较低韧性	地铁车站系统吸收、抵抗、恢复和适应火灾能力较低,火灾发生概率较高,火灾冲击下地铁车站系统能维持部分功能运行,火灾扰动后需要大量的时间恢复到正常运行状态,很难将韧性优化到更高层次
Ⅲ级	中等韧性	地铁车站系统具备一定的吸收、抵抗、恢复和适应火灾能力,火灾发生概率一般,火灾冲击下地铁车站系统关键功能正常运行,火灾扰动后需要较长时间恢复到正常运行状态,可在一定程度上将韧性优化到更高层次
Ⅳ级	较高韧性	地铁车站系统吸收、抵抗、恢复和适应火灾能力较高,火灾发生概率较低,火灾冲击下地铁车站系统能够正常运行,受影响较小,火灾扰动后能在较短时间内恢复到正常运行状态,可较好地将韧性优化到更高层次
Ⅴ级	高韧性	地铁车站系统吸收、抵抗、恢复和应对火灾能力高,火灾发生概率低,火灾冲击下地铁车站系统能够正常运行,几乎不受影响,火灾扰动后能够迅速恢复到正常运行状态,可很好地将韧性优化到更高的层次

评估指标	等级
评估指标	Ⅰ级	Ⅱ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅳ级	Ⅴ级
A₁₁ ~ A₁₄	[0, 60)	[60, 70)	[70, 80)	[80, 90)	[90, 100]
A₁₅ / h	[0, 0.5]	(0.5, 1]	(1, 1.5]	(1.5, 2]	(2, 3]
A₁₆ / m	[25, 30]	[20, 25)	[15, 20)	[10, 15)	(0, 10)
A₂₁ /h	[0, 1]	(1, 1.5]	(1.5, 2]	(2, 3]	(3, 5]
A₂₂	[0, 60)	[60, 70)	[70, 80)	[80, 90)	[90, 100]
A₂₃ / min	[8, 10]	[6, 8)	[5, 6)	[4, 5)	(0, 4)
A₃₁、A₃₇	[0, 55)	[55, 65)	[65, 75)	[75, 85)	[85, 100]
A₃₂ ~ A₃₄、A₃₆、A₃₈ ~ A₃₉	[0, 60)	[60, 70)	[70, 80)	[80, 90)	[90, 100]
A₃₅/次	[0, 1]	(1, 2]	(2, 3]	(3, 4]	(4, 5]
A₄₁、A₄₃ ~ A₄₄	[0, 60)	[60, 70)	[70, 80)	[80, 90)	[90, 100]
A₄₂	[0, 55)	[55, 65)	[65, 75)	[75, 85)	[85, 100]
A₅₁ ~ A₅₂	[0, 60)	[60, 70)	[70, 80)	[80, 90)	[90, 100]
A₅₃ ~ A₅₄	[0, 55)	[55, 65)	[65, 75)	[75, 85)	[85, 100]

一级指标	权重	二级指标	权重	综合权重	专家赋值情况							综合得分
一级指标	权重	二级指标	权重	综合权重	Z₁	Z₂	Z₃	Z₄	Z₅	Z₆	Z₇	综合得分
A₁	0.249	A₁₁	0.139	0.035	82~88	85~95	80~90	85~90	80~95	78~85	85~92	86.09
		A₁₂	0.183	0.047	80~85	85~90	75~85	85~95	86~95	83~90	85~92	86.04
		A₁₃	0.202	0.050	88~95	80~90	85~90	80~90	83~90	85~92	86~90	86.55
		A₁₄	0.183	0.046	85~90	75~85	85~90	80~90	86~93	82~90	88~90	84.85
		A₁₅	0.167	0.042	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
		A₁₆	0.126	0.032	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25
A₂	0.124	A₂₁	0.312	0.039	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
		A₂₂	0.283	0.035	85~95	75~85	86~95	80~90	90~95	78~85	88~90	87.53
		A₂₃	0.405	0.050	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.5
A₃	0.299	A₃₁	0.109	0.032	72~78	75~80	70~82	80~85	75~85	65~70	72~74	65.79
		A₃₂	0.152	0.045	75~85	80~90	80~95	80~86	83~86	77~83	83~85	84.57
		A₃₃	0.237	0.071	85~95	86~96	80~95	80~90	83~90	88~90	85~88	87.14
		A₃₄	0.198	0.059	84~90	70~85	80~95	80~92	80~85	75~80	85~92	83.76
		A₃₅	0.099	0.030	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
		A₃₆	0.071	0.021	76~88	80~86	80~92	85~90	80~95	76~80	85~90	86.34
		A₃₇	0.047	0.014	70~75	75~84	65~75	80~85	75~80	75~80	80~82	77.61
		A₃₈	0.047	0.014	80~85	70~85	75~85	85~90	85~95	82~85	72~75	82.44
		A₃₉	0.0423	0.013	83~88	75~85	80~95	85~90	80~90	70~80	65~70	74.74
A₄	0.137	A₄₁	0.356	0.049	82~90	80~85	85~90	86~92	85~95	80~84	82~85	86.08
		A₄₂	0.254	0.035	75~80	70~85	75~83	85~88	80~85	60~70	55~65	72.21
		A₄₃	0.195	0.027	85~90	80~90	88~95	78~86	85~90	75~80	70~80	74.95
		A₄₄	0.195	0.027	80~92	75~80	80~85	80~95	82~90	75~80	78~80	72.64
A₅	0.191	A₅₁	0.195	0.037	85~95	80~90	85~90	75~85	70~85	80~87	82~90	84.06
		A₅₂	0.355	0.068	80~90	78~85	80~95	80~85	88~95	82~90	85~92	86.40
		A₅₃	0.177	0.033	75~80	65~75	65~70	80~85	68~78	62~68	65~70	72.54
		A₅₄	0.273	0.052	65~75	70~75	60~65	70~80	70~85	62~66	75~80	70.54

指标	Ⅰ级	Ⅱ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅳ级	Ⅴ级
A₁₁	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.794 5	0.000 0
A₁₂	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.819 2	0.000 0
A₁₃	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.649 2	0.000 0
A₁₄	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.996 4	0.000 0
A₁₅	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.157 2
A₁₆	0.000 0	0.000 0	1.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0
A₂₁	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.081 7	0.021 8
A₂₂	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.314 8	0.000 0
A₂₃	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0	1.000 0	0.000 1
A₃₁	0.000 2	0.001 0	0.049 6	0.000 0	0.000 0
A₃₂	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.970 9	0.000 0
A₃₃	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.502 5	0.000 0
A₃₄	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.726 0	0.000 0
A₃₅	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.147 1	0.000 0
A₃₆	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.719 2	0.000 0
A₃₇	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.349 3	0.000 0
A₃₈	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.310 1	0.000 0
A₃₉	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.988 3	0.000 0	0.000 0
A₄₁	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.841 9	0.000 0
A₄₂	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.371 5	0.000 1	0.000 0
A₄₃	0.000 1	0.000 0	0.999 6	0.000 0	0.000 0
A₄₄	0.000 1	0.000 0	0.350 5	0.000 0	0.000 0
A₅₁	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.854 4	0.000 0
A₅₂	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.744 9	0.000 0
A₅₃	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.243 2	0.000 1	0.000 0
A₅₄	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.944 1	0.000 0	0.000 0
Q	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.152 1	0.482 0	0.007 4
E_rx	3.766 3
E_rn	0.122 7
θ	0.003 4