城市公交系统运行韧性测度及时空演变分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.10.1431

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (10): 166-173.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.10.1431

城市公交系统运行韧性测度及时空演变分析

黄鲜¹(), 嵇涛¹^,²^,^**(), 邓社军¹, 于世军¹, 诸云强², 邵进亮¹

¹ 扬州大学建筑科学与工程学院,江苏扬州225127
² 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101

收稿日期:2025-04-17 修回日期:2025-07-29 出版日期:2025-11-10
通信作者:
** 嵇涛(1988—),男,江苏扬州人,博士,副教授,主要从事交通大数据分析建模、城市灾害应急救援与辅助决策等方向的研究。E-mail:jitao@yzu.edu.cn。
作者简介:
黄鲜 (1999—),女,贵州三穗人,硕士研究生,研究方向为交通规划与管理。E-mail: mz120221095@stu.yzu.edu.cn;
邓社军教授;
于世军副教授;
诸云强研究员
基金资助:
江苏省基础研究计划(青年基金资助)(BK20210833); 中国博士后科学基金面上项目资助(2021M703175); 江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究基金资助(2024SJYB1515); 江苏省研究生实践创新计划项目(SJCX23 1966)

Operational resilience measurement and spatio-temporal evolution analysis of urban bus systems

HUANG Xian¹(), JI Tao¹^,²^,^**(), DENG Shejun¹, YU Shijun¹, ZHU Yunqiang², SHAO Jinliang¹

¹ College of Architectural Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou Jiangsu 225127, China
² Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Received:2025-04-17 Revised:2025-07-29 Published:2025-11-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为刻画不同降雨强度下的城市公交系统性能曲线,构建城市公交系统运行韧性测度模型,以扬州市主城区公交系统为案例,分析不同区域公交线网运行韧性以及公交线路运行韧性测度结果,并基于上述韧性测度结果进一步量化不同等级韧性下公交站点的运行状态,厘清公交网络-线路-站点运行韧性时空演变的特征。结果表明:在降雨事件中,城市公交系统在不同区域的公交线网表现出不同的性能扰动,不同区域公交系统的吸收、恢复、适应能力不同,公交运行韧性表现出明显的空间异质性,早高峰叠加强降雨事件对公交运行韧性的影响较为显著;在不同强度降雨事件下,公交线路在不同区域的运行韧性表现不同,且不同等级韧性对公交站点影响具有显著差异,尤其是在低等韧性下,公交站点可靠性下降(站时间间隔增加、站点准时度下降)。

关键词: 降雨强度, 城市公交系统, 运行韧性测度, 系统性能, 时空演变

Abstract:

To characterize the performance curve of urban bus systems under different rainfall intensities, a resilience measurement model for urban bus system operations was constructed. Taking the bus system in the main urban area of Yangzhou as a case study, the operational resilience of transit networks across different regions and individual routes were analyzed. Building upon aforementioned resilience measurement results, the operational status of bus stops under different resilience levels was further quantified. The spatio-temporal patterns of resilience evolution within the integrated "network-route-stop" hierarchy were elucidated. The results show that during rainfall events, urban bus systems exhibit varying performance disturbances across different regions. The variations in the absorption, recovery, and adaptation capacities of bus systems across different regions, significant spatial heterogeneity in resilience is observed, resulting in pronounced spatial heterogeneity in operational resilience. The combined effect of morning peak hours and extreme rain events has a notable impact on bus operational resilience. It is also found that the operational resilience of bus routes varies across different regions under rainfall events of varying intensity, and different levels of resilience lead to significant differences in the performance losses of bus stops. Notably, under low resilience conditions, the reliability of stops decreases (an increase in arrival intervals and a decrease in stop punctuality).

Key words: rainfall intensity, urban bus system, operational resilience measurement, system performance, spatio-temporal evolution

中图分类号:

X913.4安全系统工程

黄鲜, 嵇涛, 邓社军, 于世军, 诸云强, 邵进亮. 城市公交系统运行韧性测度及时空演变分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(10): 166-173.

HUANG Xian, JI Tao, DENG Shejun, YU Shijun, ZHU Yunqiang, SHAO Jinliang. Operational resilience measurement and spatio-temporal evolution analysis of urban bus systems[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(10): 166-173.

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指标	地区
指标	荷花池	瘦西湖	京华城	万达广场
R	0.88	0.89	0.92	0.90
LR	1.65	1.57	1.18	1.37
DT	7	6	6	5
DPT	3	3	3	3
RPT	4	3	3	2
DPS	-0.067	-0.059	-0.068	-0.057
RPS	0.054	0.049	0.048	0.072

指标	地区
指标	荷花池	瘦西湖	京华城	万达广场
R	0.63	0.84	0.67	0.64
LR	5.40	2.23	4.71	5.11
DT	14	8	12	11
DPT	8	4	7	6
RPT	6	4	5	5
DPS	-0.051	-0.093	-0.135	-0.098
RPS	0.124	0.051	0.111	0.112

路段	天气
路段	无雨	暴雨	特大暴雨
京华城	0.91	0.86	0.67
瘦西湖	0.93	0.84	0.80
荷花池	0.93	0.80	0.58

城市公交系统运行韧性测度及时空演变分析

Operational resilience measurement and spatio-temporal evolution analysis of urban bus systems

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