C-SAT氢气射流火焰长度预测模型验证及性能评估

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.09.0320

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对传统火焰模型在考虑氢气浮力效应及低密度特性方面存在不足导致火焰长度预测偏差的问题,以碳中和安全评估工具(C-SAT)中的氢气射流火焰长度预测模型为对象,开展模型验证与性能评估。基于多组公开发表的氢气射流火焰试验数据,对C-SAT内置的5种虚拟喷嘴模型(Y/O、Birch、Birch2、E/M、Molkov模型)进行预测精度对比与筛选评估;并对比分析最优模型与过程危害分析软件工具(PHAST)中美国石油协会(API)推荐的计算模型和锥模型。结果表明:Y/O模型在4种喷嘴模型中综合表现最优,其安全因子、二因子比例、平均相对偏差和几何平均偏差分别为1.077、100%、-0.068和0.934;C-SAT的几何平均偏差(0.934)和平均相对偏差(-0.068)均优于API模型(0.744,-0.292)及锥模型(1.132,0.122)。

关键词: 碳中和安全评估工具(C-SAT), 氢气射流火焰, 火焰长度, 预测模型, 性能评估

Abstract:

Conventional flame models are limited in addressing the buoyancy effects and low-density characteristics of hydrogen jet flames, which often lead to deviations in flame length prediction. In this study, the hydrogen jet flame length prediction model embedded in C-SAT is adopted to conduct model validation and performance evaluation. Based on multiple sets of publicly available experimental data for hydrogen jet flames, the prediction accuracies of the five virtual nozzle models (Y/O, Birch, Birch2, E/M, and Molkov) built into C-SAT are compared and screened, and the optimal model is further compared with the American Petroleum Institute(API) recommended model and the cone model in the Process Hazard Analysis Software Tool (PHAST). The results show that the Y/O model exhibits the best overall performance among the four nozzle models, with a safety factor of 1.077, a factor-of-two accuracy of 100%, a mean relative bias of -0.068, and a geometric mean bias of 0.934. In comparison with PHAST, C-SAT achieves a geometric mean bias of 0.934 and a mean relative bias of -0.068, both outperforming the API model (0.744, -0.292) and the cone model (1.132, 0.122).

Key words: safety assessment tool for carbon neutrality (C-SAT), hydrogen jet flames, flame length, prediction model, performance evaluation

中图分类号:

X932爆炸安全与防火、防爆

朱坤龙, 胡辉, 王智, 张彬. C-SAT氢气射流火焰长度预测模型验证及性能评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2026, 36(9): 210-216.

Zhu Kunlong, Hu Hui, Wang Zhi, Zhang Bin. Validation and performance evaluation of C-SAT hydrogen jet flame length prediction model[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026, 36(9): 210-216.

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模型名称	模型简介	模型特点
Y/O	阻塞条件法:将其简化为一个简单的阻塞喷嘴问题,忽略出口后的所有复杂波系	结果稳定、逻辑简单,处理较为简化,可能不适用于射流近场结构有极高精度要求的理论研究
Birch	有效面积法:为射流创建一个出口压力等于环境压力的虚拟出口	能够较好地预测射流的宏观扩散状态,但计算的出口速度可能过高,导致下游流场预测出现偏差
Birch2	改进的有效面积法:基于该面积重新计算质量流率	其改进并不总是能带来更精确的结果,取决于具体案例。使用Birch模型的基本假设,同样存在物理清晰度的问题
E/M	经验驱动法:通过指定一个经验性的高马赫数作为出口条件,拟合试验观测到的射流核心区	如果马赫数较为合适,预测结果可能较好。但过于依赖于经验参数且该参数缺乏普适性,物理机制不透明,可解释性差
Molkov	物理精细法:试图模拟射流中的马赫盘结构,将虚拟喷嘴出口定义在马赫盘位置	精度高,但计算复杂且稳定性相对较差,对物性参数和边界条件非常敏感,容易导致模拟发散或结果异常

试验	试验条件			火焰长度/m	喷射方向
试验	压力/MPa	孔径/mm	流体温度/℃	火焰长度/m	喷射方向
Mogi等^[5]	10 ~ 35	1 ~4	25	1.7~ 6.5	水平
Imamur等^[8]	0.23~3.26	1~ 4	25	0.35 ~ 1.82	水平
Schefer等^[10]	41.3	5.08	25	11.3	垂直
Ekoto等^[11]	5.98、6.21	20.9、52.5	35.55、14.65	17.4、48.5	水平
Proust等^[13]	10~ 70	1 ~ 3	-62~42	1.3 ~6.2	水平
Cirrone等^[14]	0.3~2	2、4	-163.15~-123.15	1.48、1.68、1.73、1.90	水平

统计性能指标	表达式	理想值	Y/O 模型	Birch 模型	E/M 模型	Molkov 模型
安全因子	$0.5\le \frac{{\mathit{c}}_{\mathit{P}}}{{\mathit{c}}_{\mathit{m}}}\le 2.0$	1	1.077	1.319	1.368	1.367
二因子比例/%	$\sum \left(0.5\le \frac{{\mathit{c}}_{\mathit{p}}}{{\mathit{c}}_{\mathit{m}}}\le 2.0\right)\ge 50$	100	100	100	96	100
平均相对偏差	$-0.4\le \frac{{\mathit{c}}_{\mathit{m}}-{\mathit{c}}_{\mathit{p}}}{0.5·({\mathit{c}}_{\mathit{p}}+{\mathit{c}}_{\mathit{m}})}\le 0.4$	0	-0.068	-0.264	-0.301	-0.300
几何平均偏差	$0.5\le \mathit{e}\mathit{x}\mathit{p}\mathit{l}\mathit{n}\frac{{\mathit{c}}_{\mathit{m}}}{{\mathit{c}}_{\mathit{p}}}\le 2$	1	0.934	0.765	0.737	0.738