Modeling living pattern of China village and township residents and its application in earthquake fatality estimation

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.01.029

Abstract

Abstract: Human fatality or injury in a public safety incident depends on human exposure, i.e., the extent tempo-spatial distribution of the human and that of the hazard overlap to. Building models for human living pattern will give a scientific base for the prevention of public safety risk and emergency management thereof. This paper reports the China Human Activity Pattern of Rural Residents Survey (HAPRRES) conducted nationwide, including the surveyed activity time parameters, the method to model them, and the simulation technique to represent the population tempo-spatial distribution thereby. For crop farmers, the daily working schedule, indicated by the daily number of work spells, should be determined firstly, and other parameters, pertaining to each working schedule, should be modeled separately. The models so built are found to be relevant and robust. Using the simulated human tempo-spatial distribution, this paper fits a model to fatality data in China earthquakes and reveals that the fatal probability for the people in sleep and the people who are awake differ considerably in death rate, which confirms the significance of differentiating the conscious states of people.

Key words: rural resident, public safety risk, human living pattern, time activity parameter, earthquake, fatality

CLC Number:

X915.5

JI Peixi, MENG Yaobin, YE Wan. Modeling living pattern of China village and township residents and its application in earthquake fatality estimation[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2017, 27(1): 163-168.

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