Abstract: In order to assess potential human risk in the transfer of air traffic control due to incomplete functions of air traffic control automation system, firstly, key human errors in AIDC transfer were identified through developing a control feedback structure diagram with STPA method. Then a BN-based human error analysis model was constructed in combination with HERA-JANUS, and prior probability of each node was quantized building on expert experience and fuzzy set theory. Finally, through visually diagnosing fuzzy BN with training data of GeNIe software, occurrence probability of target events was finally acquired and key human errors were concluded. The results show that fuzzy BN driven by STPA method can comprehensively identify key human error causes in AIDC transfer, among which dearth of system warnings in the event of transfer failure is a key hazard source of human errors during transfer process. And when target event occurs, four kinds of human error behaviors have higher probability to occur, including “controllers' distraction”, “forgotten monitoring”, “low concentration” and “diminished alertness”, which are four fundamental causes that result in a smaller and dangerous interval during the transfer of AIDC.

Key words: air traffic control automation system, human risk, system theoretic process analysis (STPA), fuzzy Bayesian Network(BN), human error in ATM technique-JANUS (HERA-JANUS) model, air traffic services inter-facility data communications(AIDC)