Comprehensive analysis method of multi-factor risks for highway traffic accidents in mountain areas: taking rain and fog weather for example

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.09.026

Abstract

Abstract: In order to improve the analytic theory and method of highway traffic accidents and risks under the influence of multiple factors, a comprehensive analytic model of multi-factor risks of traffic accidents in mountain area was proposed based on the joint return period of vulnerability surface and risk factors, and the typical rain and fog weather in mountainous highway traffic of Yunnan province was selected for case study. Firstly, a vulnerability surface model was established to represent the relationship between the strength of risk factors and the losses. Secondly, a copula-based risk factor analytic model was established. Finally, the risk curves of traffic participants' loss of life under the combined influence of multiple factors of rain and fog in four case study sections were obtained. The results show that the risk of highway traffic in mountainous area increases sharply under the influence of multi-hazard risk, and that the comprehensive analysis method proposed can quantify the absolute value of risks.

Key words: mountainous highway, traffic risk, multi-factor risk, vulnerability surface, copula function, joint probability distribution

CLC Number:

X928.03

WEN Huiying, XUE Gang. Comprehensive analysis method of multi-factor risks for highway traffic accidents in mountain areas: taking rain and fog weather for example[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(9): 161-166.

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