Analysis of influencing factors on severity of ship accidents in ice-covered Arctic waters

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.10.013

China Safety Science Journal ›› 2019, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (10): 84-90.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.10.013

• Safety Science of Engineering and Technology • Previous Articles Next Articles

Analysis of influencing factors on severity of ship accidents in ice-covered Arctic waters

FU Shanshan¹, LIU Yanping¹, XI Yongtao², ZHANG Mingyang³, HU Shenping²

1 College of Transport & Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 200136, China;
2 Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 200136, China;
3 School of Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo FI-00076, Finland

Received:2019-07-18 Revised:2019-09-17 Online:2019-10-28 Published:2020-10-27

Abstract

Abstract: In order to analyze influencing factors of ship accidents in Arctic waters, 311 ship accident data in Arctic waters from 1998 to 2017 were collected, cleaned and converted from maritime accident database from Lloyd's List Intelligence and Transportation Safety Board of Canada. Then a bivariate probit model was constructed and marginal effect analysis was conducted to identify and study influencing factors and associated impact levels of ship accidents (serious accidents and pollution accidents) in Arctic ice-covered waters. The results show that bivariate probit model can not only identify influencing factors of serious accident and pollution accident, but also sort out potential relationship between them which is a negative correlation. It is also found that gross tonnage, ship type, ship age, accident type, accident year, accident location, wind, and sea ice are notable factors that influence severity of ship accidents in Arctic waters.

Key words: Arctic shipping safety, influencing factors analysis, bivariate probit model, serious accidents, marginal effect analysis

CLC Number:

X951

FU Shanshan, LIU Yanping, XI Yongtao, ZHANG Mingyang, HU Shenping. Analysis of influencing factors on severity of ship accidents in ice-covered Arctic waters[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(10): 84-90.

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Analysis of influencing factors on severity of ship accidents in ice-covered Arctic waters

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