Value of statistical life in rail traffic safety based on mixed Logit model

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.04.029

Abstract

Abstract: In order to provide basic indicators for economic evaluation of rail traffic safety projects, estimation studies on VOSL in rail traffic safety were carried out. Firstly, VOSL calculation model was constructed based on ML model with normal distribution and lognormal distribution. Secondly, route-choice questionnaires were designed with hypothetical scenario of "Dalian to Shenyang route choice", and then survey was conducted and data were obtained. Finally, the model was calibrated by Monte Carlo simulation and comparatively analyzed before VOSL and its distribution function were gained. The results show that ML-2 model with lognormal distribution has high accuracy, whose goodness of fit is 0.213 5 and hit ratio 82.49%. VOSL based on ML-2 model obeys lognormal distribution with parameters (0.615 5,0.514 8²), who has a mathematical expectation of 6.169 million RMB and reaches the maximum probability at 4.1 million RMB.

Key words: rail traffic safety, value of a statistical life(VOSL), mixed Logit(ML) model, Monte Carlo simulation, stated choice method

CLC Number:

X915.1

LIU Wen'ge, YANG Jing. Value of statistical life in rail traffic safety based on mixed Logit model[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30(4): 186-191.

References

[1] 沧浪之歌. 解读致命真相:德国史上最严重高铁事故揭秘[EB/OL]. [2018-12-26]. http://www.360doc.com/content/18/1126/20/31326041_797415186.shtml.
[2] 2008年1月23日山东动车组D59次列车撞倒铁道施工人员18死9伤[EB/OL]. [2015-01-22]. https://www.bbaqw.com/js/82.htm.
[3] LIU Feng. “7.23”温州动车事故六周年祭—还原当年动车事故真相—为什么要埋掉车头[EB/OL]. [2017-07-24]. http://www.chinairn.com/hyzx/20170724/144451773.shtml.
[4] SCHELLING T C. The life you save may be your own [C]. Problems in Public Expenditure Analysis, 1968: 127-162.
[5] 刘文歌.道路交通安全统计生命价值评价研究:基于四边界二分式条件价值法[J]. 中国安全科学学,2019, 29(5): 131-137
LIU Wen'ge. Evaluation study on VOSL in road traffic safety based on quadruple-bound dichotomous CVM[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(5): 131-137.
[6] RIZZI L I, ORTÜZAR J. Stated preference in the valuation of interurban road safety[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2003, 35(1): 9-22.
[7] IRAGÜEN P, ORTÜZAR J. Willingness-to-pay for reducing fatal accident risk in urban areas: an internet-based web page stated preference survey[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2004, 36(1): 513-524.
[8] RHEINBERGER C M. A mixed logit approach to study preferences for safety on alpine roads[J]. Environmental and Resource Economics, 2011, 49(1): 121-146.
[9] 刘文歌, 赵胜川. 基于Logit模型的道路交通统计生命价值[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2013,13(1): 137-141.
LIU Wen'ge, ZHAO Shengchuan. The value of statistical life in road traffic based on logit model[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2013,13(1): 137-141.
[10] 刘文歌, 赵胜川. 基于Mixed Logit模型的道路交通统计生命价值评价研究[J]. 统计信息论坛, 2013, 28(2): 109-112.
LIU Wen'ge, ZHAO Shengchuan. The evaluation study on the value of a statistical life in road traffic based on mixed logit model[J]. Statistics & Information Forum, 2013, 28(2): 109-112.
[11] ZHAO Yang, PAN Liu, XIN Xu. Estimation of social value of statistical life using willingness-to-pay method in Nanjing, China[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2016,95: 308-316.
[12] MANN T. Rail safety and the value of a life[N]. Wall Street Journal, 2013-06-18(1).
[13] COVEY J, ROBINSON A, JONES-LEE M, et al. Responsibility, scale and the valuation of rail safety[J]. Journal of Risk Uncertain, 2010, 40: 85-108.
[14] JONES-LEE M, SPACKMAN M. The development of road and rail transport safety valuation in the United Kingdom[J]. Research in Transportation Economics, 2013, 43: 23-40.
[15] 杨利强, 黄亮, 张宁, 等. 基于Mixed Logit模型的城市轨道交通出行时间价值估计[J]. 城市轨道交通研究, 2015(5): 29-32,37.
YANG Liqiang, HUANG Liang, ZHANG Ning, et al. Calculation of travel time value for urban rail transit based on mixed logit model [J]. Urban Mass Transit, 2015(5): 29-32,37.
[16] 晶荣宏祥.辽宁2017年各地工资排行榜出炉[EB/OL]. [ 2017-02-22]. http://www.360doc.com/content/17/0222/20/33542116_631215151.shtml.
[17] 国家铁路局. 2017铁路安全情况公告[EB/OL]. [ 2018-03-30]. http://www.nra.gov.cn/xwzx/xwdt/xwlb/201803/t20180330_54494.shtml.
[18] MATTHIAS Gsul, 胡予红, 周旋,等. 道路交通运输安全发展报告(2017)[J]. 中国应急管理,2018(2): 48-58.
[19] 宗会明, 何舟, 杨庆媛, 等. 基于SP方法的重庆居民轨道交通出行时间价值及影响因素分析[J]. 现代城市研究, 2014(2): 115-120.
ZONG Huiming, HE Zhou, YANG Qingyuan, et al. The value of travel time of the rail transportation based on SP method: a case study of Chongqing city[J]. Modern Urban Research, 2014(2): 115-120.
[20] 赵胜川, 王喜文, 姚荣涵, 等. 基于Mixed Logit模型的私家车通勤出行时间价值[J]. 吉林大学学报, 2010, 40(2): 406-411.
ZHAO Shengchuan, WANG Xiwen, YAO Ronghan, et al. Value of driver commuting travel time based on mixed logit model[J]. Journal of Jilin University 2010, 40(2): 406-411.
[21] 周洋. 深圳大学居民出行时间价值标定及其在交通分布预测中的运用:以东莞市为例[D]. 深圳:深圳大学,2016.
ZHOU Yang. The value of time calibration and its application in traffic distribution prediction: taking Dongguan as an example[D]. Shenzhen: Shenzhen University, 2016.