Risk and cost based emergency control decision-making for offshore oil spills

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.04.025

Abstract

Abstract: In order to make more scientific emergency decision for offshore oil spills and effectively reduce offshore ecological environment risk caused by such accidents, a risk and cost based emergency decision-making methodology was proposed, and main variables and time sequence nodes in escalation of offshore oil spills were identified. Then, an evolution model of accidents was established based on Bayesian network to assess ecological environment risk they caused. On such basis, by introducing emergency measures and considering execution cost and effect of different disposal measures, a Bayesian influence diagram model for emergency control of offshore oil spills was developed, which could determine an effect-and-cost-optimal emergency control strategy. The results show that a combination of sea surface burning and natural recovery is the best solution for oil spill disposal in real cases, which could effectively reduce risk and control cost.

Key words: risk and cost, offshore oil spills, emergency control, oil spills disposal, Bayesian influence diagram

CLC Number:

X937

LI Xinhong, ZHANG Yi, HAN Ziyue, JIA Ruichao, WANG Jingwen, ZHU Yujiao. Risk and cost based emergency control decision-making for offshore oil spills[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(4): 184-190.

References

[1] LI Xinhong, CHEN Guoming, ZHU Hongwei. Modelling and assessment of accidental oil release from damaged subsea pipelines[J]. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 2017,123(1/2): 133-141.
[2] ARZAGHI E, ABAEI M M, ABBASSI R, et al. A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines[J]. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2018,118: 307-315.
[3] 李新宏,韩子月,陈国明.水下气体泄漏海面火灾后果预测及评估[J].中国安全科学学报,2019,29(12): 117-122.
LI Xinhong, HAN Ziyue, CHEN Guoming. Prediction and assessment of offshore fire resulting from subsea gas release[J]. China Safety Science Journal,2019,29(12): 117-122.
[4] 惠文颖,牛健壮,何旭,等.泄漏原油水面池火燃烧特性试验研究[J].中国安全科学学报, 2019,29(12): 53-58.
HUI Wenying, NIU Jianzhuang, HE Xu, et al., Experimental study on burning characteristics of spilled crude oil pool fires on water surface[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019,29(12): 53-58.
[5] 魏超南, 陈国明. “深水地平线”钻井平台井喷事故剖析与对策探讨[J]. 钻采工艺, 2012,35(5): 18-21.
WEI Chaonan, CHEN Guoming. Analysis and precaution of the blowout on deep horizon rig[J]. Drilling & Production Technology, 2012,35(5): 18-21.
[6] 邓海发, 陈国明. 基于CFD的深水钻井溢油事故定量风险评估[J]. 安全与环境学报, 2012,12(2): 233-236.
DENG Haifa, CHEN Guoming. CFD-based quantitative hazard assessment of oil spills in deepwater drilling [J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2012,12(2): 233-236.
[7] 李陈峰, 任慧龙, 周学谦, 等.“桑吉”号油轮沉没原因推测与分析[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报, 2018, 39(7): 1 123-1 131.
LI Chenfeng, REN Huilong, ZHOU Xueqian, et al. Deduction and analysis of the cause of the sinking of the Sanchi tanker[J]. Journal of Harbin Engineering University, 2018,39(7): 1 123-1 131.
[8] 蒋梅荣, 李志刚, 余建星. 网格密度对海底管道溢油扩散数模结果的影响[J]. 天津大学学报: 自然科学与工程技术版, 2016, 49(9): 907-914.
JIANG Meirong, LI Zhigang, YU Jianxing. Effect of grid density on numerical result for oil leakage from subsea pipeline[J]. Journal of Tianjin University:Science and Technology, 2016, 49(9): 907-914.
[9] 郝国柱,黄立文,张可,等.海上溢油事故双目标应急物资调度模型[J/OL]. 安全与环境学报.[2020-12-01].https://doi.org/10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2019.1604.
HAO Guozhu, HUANG Liwen, ZHANG Ke, et al. Dual-objective emergency material dispatching in marine oil spill accident[J/OL]. Journal of Safety and Environment.[2020-12-01]. https://doi.org/10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2019.1604.
[10] AFENYO M, JIANG Changmin, NG A K, et al. Climate change and arctic shipping: a method for assessing the impacts of oil spills in the Arctic[J]. Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment, 2019, 77: 476-490.
[11] SAJID Z, KHAN F, VEITCH B. Dynamic ecological risk modelling of hydrocarbon release scenarios in Arctic waters[J]. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 2020,153:111001.
[12] ARZAGHI E, ABBASSI R, GARANIYA V, et al. An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline[J]. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 2018,135: 1 117-1 127.
[13] SONG Guozheng, KHAN F, YANG Ming, et al. Integrated risk management of hazardous processing facilities[J]. Process Safety Progress, 2019, 38(1): 42-51.
[14] 朱敬宇, 陈国明, 吕寒, 等. 深水钻井井喷事故风险控制决策方法[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(2): 113-118.
ZHU Jingyu, CHEN Guoming, LYU Han, et al. Research on risk control decision method for deepwater drilling blowout[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30(2): 113-118.
[15] MELCHERS R E. On the ALARP approach to risk management[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2001, 71(2): 201-208.
[16] 李华,李琳倩,益朋.景区密集人群踩踏事故情景分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2020,30(4): 108-113.
LI Hua, LI Linqian, YI Peng. Scenario analysis of stampede accidents in scenic spots[J]. China Safety Science Journal,2020,30(4): 108-113.
[17] LI Xinhong, CHEN Guoming, KHAN F, et al. Dynamic risk assessment of subsea pipelines leak using precursor data[J]. Ocean Engineering, 2019,178: 156-169.
[18] KHAKZAD N, RENIERS G. Cost-effective allocation of safety measures in chemical plants w.r.t land-use planning[J]. Safety Science, 2017,97: 2-9.