Fire type discrimination of hazardous chemicals tanker based on multinomial Logistic

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.01.1871

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to effectively prevent and control fire accidents of hazardous chemical tanks during transportation, it is necessary to identify the type of tank fire quickly and correctly. The statistical data of domestic hazardous chemicals tanker fire accidents from 2013 to 2020 was analyzed with Python software. According to the characteristics of fire accidents, a regression model with multiple logistic regression theory was established. The three common fire types of hazardous chemicals tankers, namely, jet fire, pool fire and BLEVE(Boiled Liquid Evaporate Vapor Explosion)fire, were regarded as the categories of explained variables. Through the analysis of accident data, a total of 15 fire factors in five aspects, namely, space and road characteristics, time and meteorological characteristics, personnel factors, vehicle and equipment factors, and hazardous chemicals factors, were determined. A multiple logistic regression equation of fire probability of hazardous chemicals tankers was constructed, and the explicitness and accuracy of the equation were tested. The determined model was proved by examples. The probability of three types of fire in hazardous chemicals tankers was obtained. The accident prevention measures were proposed. The results show that it is the most likely a pool fire for a liquefied natural gas tanker, with a probability of 0.55. The second one is jet fire, and the last one is the boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion fire. To reduce the probability of pool fires, measures such as improving the mechanical strength of the container and reducing the collision strength could be adopted to prevent leakage holes of large size in the container. Measures such as slowing down the leakage rate, controlling the leakage range and efficient scientific fire extinguishing are adopted to decrease sequences of tank fire.

Key words: multiple Logistic regression, hazardous chemicals, tanker, fire type discrimination, highway transportation

CLC Number:

X937

LIU Yong, LI Xiao, SHI Shiliang, LU Yi, WANG Zhengwu, SHI Xingyu. Fire type discrimination of hazardous chemicals tanker based on multinomial Logistic[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(1): 231-237.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Tab.1

Tab.2

Tab.3

Tab.4

Model regression analysis results when Y=1

被解释变量	解释变量及编码	自由度	β	标准差	Wald	P值
Y=1	截距 $α 1$	1	1.526	0.652	3.424	0.000
	X₁	1	2.145	0.254	2.815	0.005
	X₂	1	-1.544	0.546	4.508	0.032
	X₃	1	3.215	0.468	10.253	0.001
	X₄	1	0.234	0.543	2.564	0.000
	X₅	1	-2.151	0.511	2.219	0.000
	X₆	1	1.129	0.169	8.451	0.041
	X₇	1	2.138	0.458	14.263	0.015
	X₈	1	2.548	0.365	10.885	0.023
	X₉	1	0.655	0.344	12.775	0.032
	X₁₀	1	-5.211	0.413	30.281	0.014
	X₁₁	1	6.321	0.405	14.794	0.016
	X₁₂	1	3.549	0.542	9.043	0.029
	X₁₃	1	0.986	0.807	0.054	0.041
	X₁₄	1	0.713	0.675	6.359	0.035
	X₁₅	1	2.689	0.487	13.309	0.011

Tab.4

Tab.5

Tab.6

Tab.7

Multiple Logistic model likelihood ratio test

效应	模型拟合标准	似然比检验
效应	简化模型的-2 对数似然值	卡方	自由度	显著性
$α 1$	123.322	0.000	0	—
$X 1$	120.198	7.079	2	0.029
$X 2$	133.986	20.867	4	0.000
$X 3$	125.192	12.074	4	0.017
$X 4$	243.987	32.665	6	0.002
$X 5$	147.562	23.513	2	<0.001
$X 6$	102.541	10.523	4	<0.001
$X 7$	203.324	9.658	4	0.001
$X 8$	105.452	25.124	4	0.012
$X 9$	112.325	65.856	2	0.021
$X 10$	132.548	12.035	2	0.002
$X 11$	153.256	24.507	4	<0.001
$X 12$	165.325	32.658	4	0.024
$X 13$	128.951	26.403	4	0.012
$X 14$	175.682	17.203	4	<0.001
$X 15$	193.514	11.352	4	0.012

Tab.7

References 10

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类别	危险因子
道路特征	道路类型、特殊路段情况、所属区域
时间与气象特征	季节、时段、天气
人员因素	年龄、疲劳情况、驾驶年限
车辆与设备因素	槽罐规模、安全附件状态、充装状态
危化品因素	运输质量、易燃易爆特性、压力状态

变量符号	变量内容
Y=1	池火灾
Y=2	喷射火灾
Y=3	BLEVE火灾

变量类别	变量内容及编码	变量定义
道路特征	道路类型X₁	1=高速公路;2=国道;3=城市道路;4=县乡道路
	特殊路段情况X₂	0=否;1=是
	所属区域X₃	1=东北;2=东南;3=中部;4=西南;5=西北
时间与气象特征	季节X₄	1=春季;2=夏季;3=秋季;4=冬季
	时段X₅	1=凌晨;2=上午;3=下午;4=夜间
	天气X₆	1=晴天;2=多云;3=大雾;4=雨天;5=雪天
人员因素	年龄X₇	1≤30岁;2=30~40岁;3=40~50岁;4≥50岁
	疲劳情况X₈	1=疲劳;0=正常
	驾驶年限X₉	1≤2年;2=2~5年;3=5~10年;4≥10年
车辆与设备因素	槽罐规模X₁₀	1=小型槽罐车;2=中型槽罐车;3=大型槽罐车
	安全附件状况X₁₁	0=正常;1=异常
	充装状况X₁₂	0=正常;1=过载
危化品因素	运输质量X₁₃	1≤10 t;2=10~20 t;3=20~30 t;4≥30 t
	易燃易爆特性X₁₄	1=是;0=否
	压力状态X₁₅	1=高压;2=常压

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