Scenario analysis of road transportation accidents of inflammable and explosive hazardous chemicals

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.028

Abstract

Abstract: In order to explore the evolution trend of accident scenarios, the Netica was used to study the accidents characteristic parameters extracted from 983 road transportation accidents of inflammable and explosive hazardous chemicals from 2013 to 2018 in China. And a BN model for road transportation accident analysis of hazardous materials was constructed. Fianlly, posterior probability was studied and the model was adopt to develop a prediction method of fault chain in the form of "initial accident - hazardous chemicals accident". The results show that the scenario analysis model can effectively assess the impact of various factors on the evolution of accident scenarios, and that the evolution of accident scenarios and the most likely scenario leading to specific consequences can be predicted by the model.

Key words: inflammable and explosive, hazardous chemicals, road transportation, Bayesian network(BN), Netica, accident scenario, fault chain

CLC Number:

X951

WANG Jian, ZHANG Mingguang, HUANG Xin, CHEN Jiarui. Scenario analysis of road transportation accidents of inflammable and explosive hazardous chemicals[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(5): 171-177.

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