China Safety Science Journal

Study on takeaway deliverers' red light running behavior based on planned behavior theory

ZHANG Fan, LYU Huitao, SHEN Xiaoyan, LIU Haoxue

2019, 29(5): 1-6. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.001

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In order to improve urban road traffic safety, the RLR behaviors of takeaway deliverers were studies through a survey based on TPB. Firstly, t-test was conducted to determine the difference of the mean value of psychological variables among population with different characteristics. Then, the ability of TPB basic variables, extended variables and population variables to explain the intention of RLR behaviors was analyzed by using hierarchical regression and group regression based on population variables. The results show that among all variables only traffic environment has marked impact on takeaway deliverers with different education levels to run a red light. The population variance of all variables to explain RLR intention is 57.3%-69.6%, and attitude, descriptive norms, conformity tendency, traffic environment, educational background and working time are the significant influencing factors of RLR behaviors, among all of which attitude exerts the most obvious influence on behavior intention of running a red light.

Predicative research on falls in elderly based on BN-SVR

LYU Ziyang, WANG Yongyi, GAO Xing, MA Yingnan

2019, 29(5): 7-12. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.002

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In order to reduce falls in the elderly, a biomechanical test of TUG at free pace was conducted with 54 elderly people from a community in Beijing; then BN was applied to complete the transformation of kinematics data and fall probability, and the predicted trajectory was simulated with SVR algorithm to predict the fall probability of a specific frame position. The results show that sagittal displacement of the hip joint which features significant difference can be used as a probability predictor for elderly falls; it is also found that through supervised learning of the limb data, predicting the fall probability at the next moment can be realized, thus making it possible to provide preventive intervention for high fall risk actions of the elderly.

Research on evacuation model in densely populated area in a complex building

CHEN Yizhou, CHEN Wentao, ZHANG Wudi, HAN Jing, ZHOU Xinxin, WANG Zhiwei

2019, 29(5): 13-18. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.003

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In order to effectively assess the evacuation ability in crowded place of a complex building in the event of an emergency, combined with the dynamic control equations of the evacuation speed, evacuation time, and population density, the mathematical model of crowd evacuation in a complex building was constructed. Taking a sudden event in a shopping mall as an example, the model and the Pathfinder software simulation method were used to calculate the evacuation time. The results show that the moving speed, evacuation time and personnel density influence and control each other, which ultimately affects the evacuation efficiency. The evacuation time obtained by the mathematical model is consistent with that simulated by Pathfinder software, and the calculation results of the model reflect that evacuation time correlates with the number of floors of the building, the speed of movement of the crowd, the crowd density, and physical parameters of the stairs. The model predicts that blockage is more likely to occur at the stairway and takes up most of the evacuation time.

Application of grey target decision-making theory in evaluation of rock burst intensity

ZHOU Xinlong, ZHANG Guang, LI Junzhe, HU Shaohua

2019, 29(5): 19-24. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.004

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In order to reduce the fuzziness and uncertainty in rock burst intensity evaluation caused by incomplete information, an evaluation method for rock burst intensity was proposed based on grey target decision-making theory. Firstly, evaluation index system was constructed, and grey system theory was introduced to confirm the weighted coefficient of each index. Then the multi-attribute grey target theory was introduced to construct multi-dimensional evaluation model for rock burst intensity. Space projector distance was used to construct distribution sets of the comprehensive bull's eye distance under different intensity levels. Finally, rock burst intensity grade was determined by measuring the off-target distance. Results show that the assessment results by the proposed method are in line with the actual situation, and that compared to the Russenes criteria and rough set theory, the proposed method can reduce the fuzziness of decison caused by incomplete information and give more explicit intensity degree of the test sample.

Evolutionary game research of supervision on unmanned aerial vehicle interference with flights in airfield clearance area

XU Ruihua, LUO Fan

2019, 29(5): 25-30. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.005

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In order to determine the influencing factors and evolution paths of the unsafe flight of the UAV operator, and to improve the supervision level on the UAV interference with flights in airfield clearance area, the situational conditions of behavior selection were analyzed through the evolutionary game theory and SD. Based on the cause analysis of UAV interference with flights, the game pay matrix of airport safety regulator and UAV operator was built, and the local stability of equilibrium point of game system was analyzed. On this basis, a SD model was established to simulate and analyze the dynamic effects of different parameters on evolution results. The results show that it is possible to increase the probability of UAV safe flight by increasing the intensity of tracking of and punishment for UAV operator's unsafe flight, and that the effectiveness of safety supervision can be improved from the perspective of the subject and object involved in supervision, which can promote the UAV safe flight and reduce the disturbance of UAV in the airport clearance area in the long run.

Study on psychological distance model of risk perception of cavern construction workers

YUAN Xuan, CHEN Yao, YUAN Guochang

2019, 29(5): 31-36. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.006

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In order to clarify the mechanism of risk factors in underground caverns affecting the risk perception level of construction workers, the theory of psychological distance was applied to construct the SEM model and the vector model. Firstly, combined with literature review and field investigation, the factors influencing the risk perception of underground cavern workers were determined. Then risk perception factors were summarized into three distance dimensions by using psychological distance theory, the SEM of psychological distance was constructed and the path coefficients of the impact of psychological distance on risk perception level were calculated. Finally, the sensitivity coefficient of each psychological distance to risk perception level was calculated by using vector model, and the accuracy of SEM calculation was verified. The results show that the income distance dimension has the greatest impact on the level of worker's risk perception.

Lifeyears loss probability density prediction based on QRNN model

WU Jiajia, WANG Wei, ZHU Qiangqiang, MA Donghui

2019, 29(5): 37-43. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.007

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In order to comprehensively assess and predict earthquake damage losses, a method for probability density prediction is proposed. First, the life-year loss was obtained through the improved lifeyears loss calculation method. Secondly, by use of stepwise regression analysis which is based on Akaike information criterion (AIC), the strongly correlated factors of lifeyears loss were identified and furthermore QRNN model was constructed. Then the nonlinear relationship between the predicted value of lifeyears loss and the strongly correlated factors was obtained, the predicted loss under different quantile points was outputted, and the lifeyears loss probability density was predicted by adopting Gaussian kernel function. Finally, with the damage loss data of 189 Chinese earthquakes from 1996 to 2014 as training samples, the lifeyears loss of 10 earthquakes in 2015 was predicted and compared with quantile regression B-spline (QRBS) model and three linear models. The results show that the damage loss probability density prediction based on the proposed model reduces data dependency while improves evaluation efficiency, and the average absolute error of the prediction is less than 7.5%, which is effective for damage assessment.

Cause analysis of different patterns of traffic accidents on plateau mountain roads

LU Huan, JI Xiaofeng, YANG Wenchen, HU Chengyu

2019, 29(5): 44-49. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.008

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In order to reveal the causes of different patterns of traffic accidents occurring on plateau mountain roads, and to clarify the key factors affecting different traffic accident patterns and their degree of influence, a Logistic model is constructed based on the statistical data collected from typical highway accidents in plateau mountainous areas. The causes were analyzed by using three traffic accident patterns as dependent variables, namely rear-end collision, head-on collision and scratch, and using seven types of affecting factors as independent variables from three perspectives of traffic environment, road facilities and vehicle types. The results show that there are obvious differences in the causes of different traffic accident patterns: the marking line setting is the protection factor for all of the three patterns, the signal setting is the protection factor for head-on collisions, while the risk factor for rear-end accidents is the motor and non-motor separating belt; what affects most on the rear-end accident is the large passenger car, which is 5.282 times of other vehicles; the medium-sized truck has the greatest impact on the head-on collision, which is five times that of others, but it has the least impact on scratch accidents; the adverse weather affects the rear-end collision 3 to 4 times of normal weather and the probability of a rear-end collision is 1.312 times that of the daytime if there is no street lighting at night.

Theoretical modeling of system safety synergy from perspective of “flow”

HUANG Lang, WU Chao, WANG Bing

2019, 29(5): 50-55. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.009

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In order to perfect the theoretical system of safety systematics, the theoretical models of system safety synergy were constructed from the perspective of “flow”. Firstly, the concept of “flow” in system safety was put forward and its characteristics and classification were analyzed. Secondly, the synergy ideas of system safety “four flows” (namely material flow, energy flow, information flow, and behavior flow) were summarized and the conceptual model of “four flows” synergy for system safety was constructed. Finally, the system safety analysis model based on “four flows” synergy was developed and its connotation was explained. The results show that “flow” possesses four properties, that there are different types of flows under different system safety dimensions like essential factors and radiopacity, that the proposal of system safety “four flows” synergy and its modeling can be achieved from safety natural science and safety social science path, and that system safety “four flows” synergy is a new analysis thought and method for system safety.

Flame saliency detection based on FMF

LI Yun, ZHANG Qing, SHEN Zihao, ZUO Baochuan

2019, 29(5): 56-61. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.010

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To accurately locate the fire source and achieve early warning of fire, a real-time fire warning monitoring method based on human visual attention mechanism was developed. Firstly, the brightness and color features of each frame of the video sequence were extracted according to image opponent theory. Secondly, pixel-level saliency detection algorithm was applied to construct a multi-scale spatial Gaussian pyramid which describes feature information. Then, the static saliency map was generated by merging center-neighbor contrast pyramid through the cross-scale feature addition method. Finally, the saliency map obtained from FMF algorithm was used as the dynamic frame difference based on the dynamic frame difference method to find the region of flame on video frames, and the proposed approach was compared with 6 representative algorithms in terms of 4 performance criteria on public datasets. The results show that FMF algorithm demonstrates stronger robustness in describing multi-scale spatial feature information through the saliency analysis method, and with obvious advantages in accuracy and missed rate compared with other algorithms, it can accurately identify and locate the flame so as to prevent the occurrence of fire accidents.

Thermal decomposition kinetics and thermal safety of ANPyO/NBR

WANG Yang, HE Zhiwei, GUO Ziru, CHENG Ao, MENG Xiangwu, ZHANG Hong

2019, 29(5): 62-66. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.011

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In order to study the thermal safety of ANPyO and NBR moulding powder, the ANPyO was improved moldability with NBR by means of the solution-water suspending-distillation method and its thermal behavior was studied by Thermogravimetric-Differential Scanning Calorimeter(TG-DSC)thermal analyzer. The thermal decomposition activation energy and the pre-exponential factor were calculated by Kissinger method, Ozawa method and various integral methods. And the self-accelerating decomposition temperature, the thermal ignition temperature, and the critical temperature of thermal explosion of ANPyO/NBR were calculated. Then the time to ignition of spherical ANPyO/NBR samples with radius of 1m at different supercritical ambient temperatures was calculated. The results show that the moulding powder ANPyO/NBR has good heat resistance and thermal safety performance, and that the thermal safety of ANPyO/NBR is decided by the ambient temperature.

Research on leakage magnetic field signals of tank wall defects

YANG Zhijun, ZHANG Zhenlong, WU Zhongyi, LIU Yuzhuo, YU Yongliang

2019, 29(5): 67-72. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.012

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In order to detect the corrosion defects of tank wall and ensure the safe operation of tank, magnetic flux leakage testing technology for corrosion defects of tank wall was studied in this paper. Based on the principle of magnetic flux leakage detection, ANSYS was used to simulate and analyze the magnetic flux leakage signals of tank wall corrosion defects with different shapes (cylindrical, conical, hemispherical) at different positions (inner wall, outer wall) under the circumferential and axial excitation modes outside the wall, and the defect detection research was carried out under laboratory conditions to verify the simulation results. The results show that the experimental results are the same as the simulation analysis, that there are no significant differences in the leakage field signals generated by the two magnetization modes of the circumferential magnetization and the axial magnetization, that all defects can be detected, that the magnetic leakage signal of the outer wall defect is stronger than that of the inner wall defect, and that when the defect diameter and depth are the same, the larger the volume is, the stronger the magnetic leakage signal will be.

Research on optimization method for safety function test sequence of on-board equipment

DOU Lei, LI Yao, GUO Jin, TONG Yin, LAN Hao

2019, 29(5): 73-78. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.013

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The problem of test sequence optimization in train control system could be transformed into TSP which is difficult to find the optimal solution by use of IC algorithm and results in lots of iterations through SA algorithm, so to solve this problem, the test sequence optimization method based on SA optimization IC algorithm is proposed. Firstly, the test sequence generation method based on TSP was introduced with the mode transition function of on-board equipment as an example. Then, the steps and flow of SA optimization IC algorithm were explained. Finally, an example was introduced and converted into TSP to solve which SA optimization IC algorithm was applied before the test sequence was obtained. The results show that the proposed algorithm proves to be better than IC algorithm, and the number of iterations is reduced by 27.54% compared with SA algorithm, thus making it an effective method to optimize the test sequence.

Impact of electric bicycles' roll angle on cyclist's head injury

ZHOU Hua, LIU Feng, LI Pingfei, ZHANG Aihong, TAN Zhengping, HU Wenhao

2019, 29(5): 79-84. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.014

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In order to study the cyclist's head injury when a electric bicycle's side is in collision with a SUV's front part, MADYMO software is adopted to establish and verify the multi-rigid model of the SUV and the electric bicycle through a case selected from National Automobile Accident In-depth Investigation System (NAIS). On this basis, computer simulation experiments were carried out to study the effects of the electric bicycle's roll angle, the speed of the SUV and that of the electric-bicycle on the cyclist's head injury. The results show that the cyclist's head injury increases first and then decreases with the increase of the electric-bicycle's body roll angle; it increases at the initial collision as the electric-bicycle's roll angle increases, and it would decrease with the acceleration of the SUV and the electric-bicycle's speed.

Safety evaluation and prediction of prefabricated building construction based on EW-SPA

FENG Yajuan, DU Sizhu, ZHANG Jingyi

2019, 29(5): 85-90. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.015

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In light of the complexity of the prefabricated building construction process, EW method and SPA method are combined to develop a safety evaluation model for the prefabricated building construction. Firstly, a construction safety evaluation index system was established in accordance with the 4M1E principle after identifying risk factors. Then, the EW method was used to determine the index weight and the SPA method was used to evaluate and predict the safety status of the prefabricated building construction. Finally, with the actual project as an example, the construction safety level and development trends of the project were determined. The results show that the safety level of the project is safe which is developing generally toward the category of being very safe, and the model, compared with other fabricated building safety evaluation methods, demonstrates strong practicability and more objective and accurate evaluation results by overcoming the uncertainties.

Safety evaluation for deep foundation pit construction in metro station based on DEA-BP neural network

SONG Bo

2019, 29(5): 91-96. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.016

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In order to determine the safety level of deep foundation pit construction in metro station, a safety evaluation method for deep foundation pit construction in metro station based on DEA-BP neural network is proposed with the nonlinear relationship and complex dynamics of evaluation index into consideration. Firstly, the safety evaluation index system was established from five aspects including people, devices, environment, management and technology. Then, the index weight was calculated by use of DEA, and the safety level of construction was evaluated by using BP neural network. Lastly, with Xiaoshi station of Chongqing metro line 1 as an example, the construction safety of deep foundation pit in metro station was evaluated by adopting the proposed method. The results show that the safety level of deep foundation pit construction in this station is high and consistent with the actual situation, and the main indicators that affect the safety of construction are safety awareness, mechanical injury, surrounding environment, technical disclosure and seepage damage.

Regional railway network planning optimization based on dynamic reliability evaluation: a case study on Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration

WANG Yafeng, HUANG Yong

2019, 29(5): 97-104. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.017

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In order to ensure the safety of regional railway transportation and improve emergency response effectiveness of railway network system in disasters, taking Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration as an example, two models of undirected and unweighted railway physical network and undirected weighted railway traffic network were constructed by using complex network theory. Relative size of maximum connected subgraph, network robustness and overall network efficiency were selected to evaluate the dynamic reliability of railway network from two aspects of node failure and side failure. Based on this, a proposal for railway network safe operation planning optimization was put forward. The research shows that the railway network of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration is robust to random attack and vulnerable to selective attack, and the network connectivity and information transmission efficiency vary significantly under different attacks in the case of network failure. It is also found that Chongqing North Station, Chongqing Station, Chengdu East Station, Chengdu Station, Hechuan Station, Dazhou Station, Chengdu Station-Pengshan Station, Xinjin Station-Xinjin South Station and Xinjin South Station-Pengshan North Station are the key stations and road sections that affect the reliability of the network.

Research on index system for inland unmanned ships navigation safety status

ZHANG Wei, ZHANG Qingnian, YANG Jie, TU Min, CONG Zhe, YANG Yumei

2019, 29(5): 105-110. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.018

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In order to construct the indicator system for inland unmanned ships navigation safety scientifically, the characteristic indicators reflecting the safety status of inland unmanned ships were collected according to the principle of selection of indicators. Then the entropy theory and the improved correlation coefficient method were used to screen indicators based on the importance and global correlation, and to eliminate indicators with less effective information and high information overlap. Finally, the concept of overall identification of the index system was proposed based on the entropy theory to verify the rationality of the established index system. The results show that the above research idea can comprehensively consider the various factors influencing inland unmanned ship navigation safety and improve efficiency of indicator screening, and that the value of indicator system overall identification is greater than 0.8, which indicates that the established indicator system is good.

A method for extracting ship encounter situation based on spatio-temporal analysis of AIS data

MA Jie, LIU Qi, ZHANG Chunwei, LIU Kezhong, ZHANG Yu

2019, 29(5): 111-116. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.019

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In order to accurately extract ship's encountering situation, spatial and temporal analysis of AIS data from the south channel of the Yangtze river estuary was carried out, and an automatic extraction method for the encountering situation of ships based on pattern classification was proposed. Firstly, the spatio-temporal constraint conditions in the encounter process were used to extract the ship matching information. Then encounter trajectory was synchronized by data interpolation, and encounter scene was reconstructed. Finally, spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of ship encountering were analyzed, and relative distance and course difference features in a specific time window were extracted to form encounter feature sequence. SVM algorithm was used to classify and identify the encounter feature sequence to realize the automatic extraction of encounter situation. The results show that setting spatio-temporal constraints can accurately extract ship pairing trajectory information, that the spatio-temporal analysis of encounter process can reconstruct encounter scene, and that the accuracy rate of the encounter situation extraction algorithm designed by SVM is over 90%, which reduces the misjudgment rate compared with traditional methods.

Simulation and experimental study on space between boreholes for gas drainage instead of roadway

NIAN Jun, GAO Wei, LI Runzhi, WANG Wei

2019, 29(5): 117-123. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.020

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The space between boreholes for gas drainage replacing roadway is currently determined on the basis of the experience of buried pipe drainage technology or only on the simulation of gas distribution in goaf, and its reliability is not high. Therefore, with the 2-105 working face of Tenghui mine as an experimental area, the gas concentration distribution in goaf at different hole positions and then the goaf flow field were simulated successively. On account of the gas concentration distribution and the trend of the flow track change, the influence of boreholes on gas in upper corner was analyzed so as to decide the space between boreholes. Finally, the space determined through the simulation was applied to the field test of borehole gas drainage instead of roadway in 2-105 working face, and the field data and simulation results were compared and verified. The results show that the space determined through the simulation can ensure that the gas volume fraction in upper corner is always below 0.8%, thus solving the problem of corner gas overflow on the 2-105 working face.

An improved creep model of roadway surrounding rock based on accelerated creep

LIU Wenbo, ZHANG Shuguang, LIN Xiaonan, SUN Boyi, LI Ruomu

2019, 29(5): 124-130. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.021

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In order to study the mechanism of fluid-structure interaction in rock creep process, the creep experiment of roadway urrounding rock (sandstone) by MTS815.02 rock mechanics test system was carried out, and the deformation and failure properties of rock during creep were studied.The creep process was described based on the improved creep model of accelerated creep. The least squares method was used to identify creep parameters, and the changes of creep parameters with stress and time were analyzed. Then the self-defined creep equation was embedded into the ANSYS finite element software to simulate the whole process of fluid-structure interaction creep of saturated sandstone samples.The results show that the proposed creep model can describe the whole creep process of rock well, that the good fit between the numerical simulation results and the experimental curves indicates that the model can better describe the accelerated creep properties of rocks, that the correctness and rationality of creep model and creep parameters with time are verified, and that the model provides the basis for reinforcement, disaster prevention and support design of roadway surrounding rock in deep engineering.

Evaluation study on VOSL in road traffic safety based on quadruple-bound dichotomous CVM

LIU Wen'ge

2019, 29(5): 131-137. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.022

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In order to improve the accuracy and reliability of VOSL assessment in road traffic safety, an evaluation model on VOSL was established based on the quadruple-bound dichotomous CVM, and empirical studies were carried out to obtain the estimated value. Firstly, CVM questionnaire was designed by using the quadruple-bound dichotomous format and VOSL evaluation model was built on account of the principles of multinomial Logit model. Then a survey, targeting at private car drivers in Dalian, was conducted to investigate their transportation interests, and parameters calibration and significance tests were accomplished by means of Gauss. Finally, VOSL was estimated and influencing factors were analyzed. The study results indicate that VOSL in road traffic is estimated to be 2 310 800 yuan. The CVM questionnaire based on quadruple-bound dichotomous format performs better in simulating the process of market pricing, and the VOSL evaluation model based on quadruple-bound dichotomous method features higher accuracy. Moreover, VOSL in road traffic safety maintains a remarkably positive correlation with education background and monthly income of the family.

Method for service scope division of emergency shelters considering multi-factors

SONG Yinghua, ZHAO Xiangcheng, LYU Wei, LI Zhihong

2019, 29(5): 138-144. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.023

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In order to enhance the ability of urban disaster prevention and mitigation, improve success rate of resident refuge, and reduce irrational use of emergency shelter facilities and waste of resources during a disaster, a model of service scope division was put forward which was aiming at problem of high overlap and unreasonable results in current division of shelters. Firstly, the influence of actual road network and other factors were taken into consideration, and the set of influencing factors and evaluation index system of service ability were constructed, including four first-level indicators: accessibility, rescue balance, selectivity and security, and 16 second-level indicators. Then based on actual road network, the space syntax model and spatial and network analysis tools of ArcGIS were used to calculate data of each indicator. And the comprehensive value of service ability was calculate by the gray comprehensive correlation model. Finally, weighted Voronoi diagram was used to divide service scope of emergency shelter, and the proposed method was applied to the emergency shelters in Haidian District of Beijing to verify its validity. The results show that compared with traditional partition model, the method considers influence of other factors on service scope and can reasonably define service scope of the shelter.

Research on optimization model of expressway emergency rescue center location

HU Liwei, HE Yueren, SHE Tianyi, MENG Ling, YANG Jinqing

2019, 29(5): 145-150. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.024

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In order to improve the emergency rescue system for expressway traffic accidents, Kunshi expressway was taken as an example, GA was combined with BP neural network model, and GA-BP neural network model was used to identify the highway accidents prone location. According to the Kunshi expressway environmental conditions, the candidate points for the emergency rescue base were selected. The bi-level programming theory model was applied to analyze the location of the Kunshi expressway emergency rescue base, and the firefly algorithm was used to optimize the solution. Then the optimal layout plan for the location of the emergency rescue base of Kunshi expressway was obtained. The results show that the GA-BP neural network model is more accurate in identifying the faulty section of expressway than the traditional model, and that the bi-level planning model and the firefly algorithm can be used to identify the best location of the Kunshi expressway emergency rescue center.

General aviation hazard assessment model with consideration of decision-making moderators' attitude towards risks

XIONG Shenghua, CHEN Yonggang, XU Yi, WU Yi, CHEN Zhensong

2019, 29(5): 151-158. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.025

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In order to effectively assess the risk level of general aviation hazards, a novel general aviation hazard assessment model considering the risk attitude of decision-making moderators was proposed. Firstly, the assessment index system of general aviation hazards was constructed based on the hazard source classification approach recommended by International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). Then, in terms of MAGDM problem represented by linguistic term, the Variable Linguistic Power Average (VLPA) operator was put forward, with which the group assessment information of decision-making moderators' attitude towards risk was obtained. Furthermore, with the risk attitude of decision-making moderators taken into consideration, an approach to determine the weight of decision-making attribute by combining the VLPA operator and distance entropy was elaborated. Finally, the linguistic weighted TOPSIS method was utilized to rank the risk level of general aviation hazards and the results were compared with the traditional Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method. The results show that more attention should be paid to the two major hazards--organizational and communication factors in the process of general aviation operation; the ranking results consistent with FMEA method illustrate the feasibility of the proposed method which, moreover, can better deal with the situation where the product of different risk factors may obtain the same Risk Priority Number (RPN) value.

Risk assessment method of casing for deep and ultra-deep wells

ZHAO Lei , YAN Yifei , WANG Peng, ZHAO Long , YAN Xiangzhen , FENG Yaorong

2019, 29(5): 159-164. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.026

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In view of the facts that the manufacturing defects were not considered in current casing strength design standards, and that the safety factors of casing was hard to identify, a risk assessment method of the casing with defects based on the target reliability index was proposed. Firstly, calculation methods of the strength and external load of casing considering manufacturing defects were established, and the distribution types and parameters of strength and load were calculated by Monte Carlo(MC) method on the basis of the randomness of factors influenching strength and load. Secondly, by determining the target reliability index and solving the Rackwitz-Fiessler(R-F) calculus points using inverse iteration, the partial coefficients of casing strength and load were determined. Finally, the minimum strength value required for casing was determined according to the partial coefficients and casing load standard value, and the casing was selected or judged based on the safety and reliability requirements. An oilfield was taken as an example to verify the proposed method. The results show that the risk assessment method established in this paper can meet the practical project needs of casing design and selection for deep and ultra-deep wells, and can help to solve the difficulty of selecting safety factors in the traditional design method.

Vulnerability assessment of mountainous road system based on multiple-factor coupling

LI Wenlong, LI Huimin, PEI Xingwang, LIU Yijun

2019, 29(5): 165-170. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.027

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In order to reduce the incidence of road traffic accidents in mountainous areas and ensure the safety of the operation process of the traffic system, factors influencing mountains road system vulnerability were analyzed and identified comprehensively on the basis of the accident causation theory under multi-factor coupling, and a vulnerability assessment index system for mountains road system was established considering the characteristics and potential safety hazards of mountains road. Then, in light of many uncertainties in mountains road system, the uncertainty measure theory was introduced and a vulnerability assessment model of mountains road system based on the entropy weight-uncertainty measure theory by multiple-factor coupling was constructed. The model was applied to five engineering cases, and the vulnerability levels and rankings were determined. The results show that evaluation results of the model are in good agreement with the actual situation and the error is acceptable, and that the proposed model can provide decision-making basis for the management and control of mountains road traffic safety.

Scenario analysis of road transportation accidents of inflammable and explosive hazardous chemicals

WANG Jian, ZHANG Mingguang, HUANG Xin, CHEN Jiarui

2019, 29(5): 171-177. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.028

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In order to explore the evolution trend of accident scenarios, the Netica was used to study the accidents characteristic parameters extracted from 983 road transportation accidents of inflammable and explosive hazardous chemicals from 2013 to 2018 in China. And a BN model for road transportation accident analysis of hazardous materials was constructed. Fianlly, posterior probability was studied and the model was adopt to develop a prediction method of fault chain in the form of "initial accident - hazardous chemicals accident". The results show that the scenario analysis model can effectively assess the impact of various factors on the evolution of accident scenarios, and that the evolution of accident scenarios and the most likely scenario leading to specific consequences can be predicted by the model.

Comprehensive evaluation of failure risks of submarine pipelines based on fuzzy ANP

LEI Yun, YU Jianxing, WU Zhaohui, CHEN Haicheng, LIU Junxiong

2019, 29(5): 178-184. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.029

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Delphi method, fuzzy theory, ANP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were adopted in this paper in order to evaluate the failure risk of submarine pipelines more accurately. Firstly, efforts were made to identify the risk sources of pipeline failure from four aspects: corrosion, natural factors, third-party damage and materials according to experts' opinions and accident statistics. Secondly, experts of this field were invited to evaluate the failure probability of pipelines and the importance of each risk factor affecting each other. Then, the evaluation information was processed with fuzzy theory, and the limit hypermatrix and global weight direction were calculated by using the software of Matlab. Finally fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was carried out with an in-service gas pipeline in Liwan, South China Sea as an example. The results show that the risk assessment level of this pipeline is low, and the third-party damage and corrosion are the main reasons for the failure of submarine pipelines, which is basically consistent with the accident statistics, verifying the rationality of the comprehensive evaluation of failure risk based on fuzzy ANP.

Study on fine allocation priority of emergency materials for disaster by cloud grid

LU Qiuqin, LI Yimeng

2019, 29(5): 185-190. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.030

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This paper is presented in order to facilitate the fine distribution of emergency supplies for sudden disasters in accordance with the priority order of urgency, realize multi-level and fine management and to improve the efficiency of emergency rescue. Firstly, four grid resolution quadtree agglomeration hierarchical cloud meshing method was proposed based on the basic data of Wenchuan earthquake disaster area, such as administrative divisions, population and buildings distribution; then the indicators that affect the degree of disasters, including the average rate of earthquake intensity, ten thousand building collapse rate and survivor ratio, were determined and weighted. Finally, the spatial distribution of severity of disasters was analyzed according to the processing result of unit grid point data so as to decide the fine allocation priority of emergency materials. The results show that the different mesh resolution and classification of fragmentation at the boundary make the allocation priority of emergency supplies more precise.

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