Comprehensive evaluation of failure risks of submarine pipelines based on fuzzy ANP

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.029

Abstract

Abstract: Delphi method, fuzzy theory, ANP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were adopted in this paper in order to evaluate the failure risk of submarine pipelines more accurately. Firstly, efforts were made to identify the risk sources of pipeline failure from four aspects: corrosion, natural factors, third-party damage and materials according to experts' opinions and accident statistics. Secondly, experts of this field were invited to evaluate the failure probability of pipelines and the importance of each risk factor affecting each other. Then, the evaluation information was processed with fuzzy theory, and the limit hypermatrix and global weight direction were calculated by using the software of Matlab. Finally fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was carried out with an in-service gas pipeline in Liwan, South China Sea as an example. The results show that the risk assessment level of this pipeline is low, and the third-party damage and corrosion are the main reasons for the failure of submarine pipelines, which is basically consistent with the accident statistics, verifying the rationality of the comprehensive evaluation of failure risk based on fuzzy ANP.

Key words: submarine pipelines, failure risk, analytic network process (ANP), limit hypermatrix, triangular fuzzy number, comprehensive evaluation

CLC Number:

X937

LEI Yun, YU Jianxing, WU Zhaohui, CHEN Haicheng, LIU Junxiong. Comprehensive evaluation of failure risks of submarine pipelines based on fuzzy ANP[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(5): 178-184.

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