Analysis of gas pipeline leakage and explosion accident based on AcciMap model

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.07.1011

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to explore the attribute characteristics of causes of gas pipeline leakage and explosion accident, the "6·13" accident was taken as an illustrative example. The AcciMap model of the "6·13" accident was built by identifying causes based on the AcciMap model. The CN and PageRank algorithms were introduced into the AcciMap model to analyze the attribute characteristics of accident systems and nodes and identify key causes. The BN was applied for parameter learning and inference learning to find out the key causes chain. The analysis results prove that the serious oversight of work safety supervision, failure to implement the main responsibilities of work safety, inadequate supervision and guidance of work safety are the key causes of the "6·13" accident. The concept of work safety and territorial responsibilities are not implemented → serious oversight of work safety supervision → defects in safety management system → defects in safety training and education → illegal disposal of gas pipeline maintenance and rescue staff → fire detonates accumulated gas → gas leakage explode and causes serious casualties is the biggest causal chain. It is concluded that diversified risk prevention and control strategies should be taken from the aspects of both government and enterprises to curb the recurrence of accidents.

Key words: AcciMap model, gas pipeline, leakage and explosion, complex network(CN), Bayesian network(BN)

SUN Yilin, ZHENG Xiaoqiang, LIU Xianfeng, HE Yanyan, WANG Ye. Analysis of gas pipeline leakage and explosion accident based on AcciMap model[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(7): 140-146.

Figures/Tables 8

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事故致因	聚类系数	事故致因	聚类系数
A₁	0.419	C₃	0.222
A₂	0.502	C₄	0.286
A₃	0.501	E₇	0.253
B₂	0.255	F₁	0.417
C₁	0.244	F₃	0.252
C₂	0.244	F₄	0.267

节点	中间中心度	特征向量中心度	节点	中间中心度	特征向量中心度	节点	中间中心度	特征向量中心度
A₁	4.000	0.093	D₂	6.000	0.214	E₇	4.000	0.080
A₂	3.000	0.083	D₃	11.000	0.261	E₈	2.000	0.041
A₃	3.000	0.083	D₄	7.000	0.199	E₉	4.000	0.037
B₁	9.000	0.258	D₅	7.000	0.221	E₁₀	3.000	0.024
B₂	8.000	0.253	E₁	5.000	0.112	F₁	4.000	0.083
C₁	10.000	0.362	E₂	6.000	0.124	F₂	5.000	0.106
C₂	10.000	0.362	E₃	4.000	0.111	F₃	5.000	0.086
C₃	9.000	0.330	E₄	5.000	0.121	F₄	6.000	0.101
C₄	7.000	0.267	E₅	6.000	0.122	F₅	6.000	0.070
D₁	9.000	0.263	E₆	4.000	0.084	F₆	6.000	0.068

节点	PageRank值	节点	PageRank值	节点	PageRank值	节点	PageRank值	节点	PageRank值
A₁	0.037	C₂	0.034	D₄	0.020	E₅	0.025	F₁	0.007
A₂	0.020	C₃	0.027	D₅	0.017	E₆	0.014	F₂	0.017
A₃	0.020	C₄	0.015	E₁	0.012	E₇	0.018	F₃	0.028
B₁	0.044	D₁	0.028	E₂	0.020	E₈	0.018	F₄	0.017
B₂	0.031	D₂	0.013	E₃	0.014	E₉	0.062	F₅	0.071
C₁	0.042	D₃	0.037	E₄	0.026	E₁₀	0.202	F₆	0.062

节点	诊断推理概率值
E₁₀	E₉ (0.85), F₄ (0.87), F₆ (0.93)
F₆	E₃ (0.86), E₄ (0.93), E₆ (0.88), F₃ (0.83), F₅ (0.86)
E₄	D₁ (0.92), D₂ (0.85), D₃ (0.86)
D₁	C₁ (0.89), C₂ (0.87), C₃ (0.90)
C₃	B₁ (0.91), B₂ (0.89), C₁ (0.89), C₂ (0.87)
B₁	A₁ (0.92), A₂ (0.84), A₃ (0.85)