Research on key risk control mechanism of urban safety based on system dynamic

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.10.1660

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to study evolution trend of key risks in urban regional work safety and establish an effective risk control mechanism, according to actual survey results in a prefecture-level city in Jiangsu Province, main risk factors in three key industries, namely transportation, construction and commercial places, were deeply analyzed in view of their field characteristics. Then, a system model of key risks in urban work safety was constructed by using SD theory and method, and risk value was dynamically simulated by adopting Vensim software. Finally, countermeasures to improve urban intrinsic safety were put forward from perspectives of actual risks of the three key industries based on survey data and simulation results. The results show that the evolution trend of key risks in urban work safety is roughly as slow decrease → extremely rapid decrease → gradual flattening out. Moreover, risk influencing factors, total risk, number of risk elimination, rate of risk elimination, and turning point of risk elimination of the three key industries are different due to different industries.

Key words: urban security, key risk, control mechanism, system dynamic (SD), key industries

WANG Xiaoqing, CHEN Dong, WANG Anna, QIAN Chengjiang. Research on key risk control mechanism of urban safety based on system dynamic[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(10): 31-39.

Figures/Tables 11

Tab.1

Tab.2

Statistics of key risks investigation of work safety in urban areas

序号	行业领域	重大风险种类	重大风险数量	其他风险种类	其他风险数量	风险清单		风险权重 (数量/种类)
序号	行业领域	重大风险种类	重大风险数量	其他风险种类	其他风险数量	重大风险清单	低风险清单	风险权重 (数量/种类)
1	交通运输	5	15	8	127	①危险货物运输过程未按规定路线行驶、未落实行车操作规程、未落实停车操作规程,可能造成的危害:交通事故、泄漏、车辆伤害、火灾、爆炸、灼烫、中毒和窒息、其他伤害等;②危险货物进出口作业/人员伤害、泄漏、火灾、爆炸等;③苏南运河9k+880 m 的中石化穿越苏南运河成品油输送管道埋深不足。可能导致船舶抛锚时抓断管道,造成大面积油污染,重大火灾爆炸事故和华东片区断油供应等	①不安全驾驶行为:忽视安全、忽视警告、超速行驶、疲劳驾驶、违规驾驶等;②承包(分包)管理不到位;③安全意识不足等	10.92
序号	行业领域	重大风险种类	重大风险数量	其他风险种类	其他风险数量	风险清单		风险权重 (数量/种类)
序号	行业领域	重大风险种类	重大风险数量	其他风险种类	其他风险数量	重大风险清单	低风险清单	风险权重 (数量/种类)
2	建筑施工	3	12	6	84	①超过一定规模的危险性较大的分部分项工程施工;②高处坠落;③起重机械等	①场地排水不畅;②基坑开挖未按要求放坡;③搭设方案设计缺陷等	10.67
3	商业场所	2	6	6	72	①仓库商品、装修材料、可燃家具等易燃易爆物品遇火源导致火灾;②中庭护栏损坏致跌落等	①用电设备泄露触电;②消防设备未定期检查,人员管理不到位等	9.75
4	冶金工贸	0	0	4	15	城市区域冶金工贸行业多为商贸企业,无重大隐患	①疏散通道等安全出口无应急灯及指向标志;②消防设施等灭火器材过期未更新,配备比例不足;③安全管理制度和操作规程不健全;④无定期安全检查记录	3.75
5	危废固废	2	5	3	13	①危险废物处置结构性矛盾突出;②蓄热室燃烧炉安全管理存在漏洞	①储存区域无环保及安全管理制度和标识;②无点检记录;③消防设施过期未更新,配备比例不足	3.60
6	城镇燃气	1	3	3	9	①设有50 m³以上的储罐;②城镇燃气违规使用和智能监控缺失	①无燃气事故应急处置告知书;②管线保护范围内其他单位施工监管缺失等	3.00
7	危险化学品	0	0	0	0	城市区域不存在危化品生产企业,此项数据为0	城市区域不存在危化品生产企业,此项数据为0	0.00
8	非煤矿山	0	0	0	0	城市区域不存在非煤矿山企业,此项数据为0	城市区域不存在非煤矿山企业,此项数据为0	0.00
合计		13	41	30	320	—	—	8.40

Tab.2

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序号	行业领域	单位名称	属地	风险等级	风险数量	风险具体内容	备注
1	城镇燃气	华润燃气有限公司	镇江	重大风险	1	50 m³以上的储罐
2	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙