Abstract:

In order to decrease the ground delay during the peak hours of the airport, and increase the resilience of the taxiway system to ensure the safe and efficient operation of the airport field, firstly, based on the analysis of aircraft taxiing process and combined with the concept of fuzzy number, the taxiing time of aircraft in each taxiway section was represented by triangular fuzzy number to reflect the fuzzy nature of taxiing time better. Then, based on the historical operation data and the performance data of the aircraft, a workflow network model of the aircraft taxiing triangular fuzzy number was built using the workflow network, and consistency verification was done. Finally, together with the findings of consistency verification, the calculation formula of taxiing conflict probability and the calculation technique of the probable time of conflict were presented based on the affiliation function of the triangular fuzzy number. The results show that the taxiing conflict prediction method proposed in this paper can calculate the probability of aircraft conflict in the taxiway section as well as the location and time of conflict occurrence, and the accuracy of the proposed method is verified by using Monte Carlo stochastic simulation.

Key words: fuzzy numbers, taxiing conflicts, conflict prediction, peak hours, workflow nets