Bayesian-inference-based fire protective clothing model and thermal protective performance impact analysis

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1741

Abstract

Abstract:

To depict the influence mechanism of heat transfer parameters on the thermal protection performance, the probabilistic regression relation between multi-heat transfer parameters and thermal protection performance index of fire-fighting protective clothing was constructed using Bayesian inference. Combined with the time-varying differential equation concerning the heat transfer process of "environment-clothing-air layer-skin", several characteristic heat transfer parameters affecting the thermal protection performance were extracted. On this basis, a Bayesian inference-based probabilistic regression model was constructed, and the weight and probability distribution information of the influence of heat transfer parameters on thermal protection performance were analyzed. Furthermore, the feasibility of the constructed model was demonstrated within a cross-validation analysis. The results suggest that there is a positive correlation between the apparent heat capacity, the fabric thickness and the burn time, while there is a negative correlation between thermal conductivity and burn time. The influence of the fabric thickness on the thermal protection performance is greater than sensible heat capacity and thermal conductivity. In addition, the impact of different fabric parameter setting on skin burn index via this proposed model can be approximately quantified.

Key words: fire protective clothing, Bayesian inference, thermal protection performance, heat transfer model, burn time

LIU Jikun, MA Chuanli, YANG Jie. Bayesian-inference-based fire protective clothing model and thermal protective performance impact analysis[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(6): 214-222.

Figures/Tables 9

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参数	外层 (聚苯并咪唑和对位芳纶纤维混纺)	防水透气层 (透气聚四氟乙烯薄膜)	隔热层 (芳纶1313)
C_i/(J·m^-3·K^-1)	337 000~1 164 800	205 000~421 000	272 000~488 000
k_i/(W·m^-1·K^-1)	0.055~0.109	0.032~0.068	0.027~0.063
D_i/mm	42~78	67~103	68~122

指标	数值
R	0.999 9
r	0.999 9
MSE	1.994 7×10^-5

参数	D_i l/mm	C_i/ (J·m^-3·K^-1)	k_i/ (W·m^-1·K^-1)
外壳	0.60	444 770	0.08
防水层	0.85	312 500	0.05
隔热层	0.95	379 720	0.05