China Safety Science Journal

Comparative analysis study of STPA and 24Model

SONG Wei, FU Gui

2023, 33(6): 1-10. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1172

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In order to improve and develop the accident causation theory, the four aspects of STPA and 24Model, the underlying theory, relevant definitions, analysis process and analysis difficulty, were compared and analyzed, and applied to different cases respectively. The results of the study show that both models have a strong theoretical foundation. The research object of STPA is the loss of system. It performed better at system interaction study, but the complexity is high and the research error is large, so it is more suitable for single-accident analysis. In contrast, the research object of 24Model is event in the organization. The classification of accident causes is clearer and more universal. The model is simple, the research error is small, and it is commonly used for both single-accident and multi-accident analysis. Both methods are of good extensibility. In terms of application, STPA is clear on the connection between hazards and losses. However, this method is complex and subjective on accident causation, which also lacks research on inter-organizational interactions. In contrast, 24Model is more comprehensive and clearer, but it fails in the analysis of inter-organizational interaction and design defects.

A new concept model of safety culture and its evaluation application

CHEN Weijiong, HAN Weijia, LI Xin, KANG Yutao, JIAO Yu, FENG Xiang

2023, 33(6): 11-19. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1915

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In order to improve the level of safety culture construction in the shipbuilding industry, based on the definition of safety culture and objective reality, a new concept model of safety culture (SV-MMEMS) was proposed by integrating safety values (SV) and man-machine-environment-management system (MMEMS) model. Based on the five dimensions of safety values, man, machine, environment, and management of this model, a survey was conducted on the W shipbuilding enterprise. After data processing, such as project analysis, reliability analysis, validity testing, and factor analysis, a safety culture evaluation index system for the shipbuilding industry was constructed, consisting of five dimensions, 14 first-level indicators, and 33 second-level indicators. A second-order confirmation factor analysis model for safety culture, as well as a causal path analysis model among safety culture influencing factors, was constructed using AMOS. The findings demonstrated a favorable interaction relationship between the five elements, with "SV" acting as the nucleus and the path conefficients of each element in "MMEM", which were, respectively, 0.766, 0.553, 0.720, and 0.839. The ratio is 26.6%, 19.2%, 25.0%, and 29.2% after standardization, and organizational management elements were determined to have the biggest influence on the development of W shipping enterprise's safety culture. SV-MMEMS has considerable development and application prospects in the construction and evaluation of safety culture in enterprises and organizations.

Study on classification of coal mine accident causes based on NLP

ZHANG Jiangshi, LI Yongtun, MAO Xiangning, HU Xinyue, WANG Ziyi

2023, 33(6): 20-26. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1416

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In order to improve the efficiency of analyzing and processing coal mine accident text effectively, NLP and accident cause models were used for building an automatic classification framework of accident cause. Based on 24Model, 87 typical mine accident investigation reports were analyzed, and a framework of mine accident cause classifications was obtained. A corpus was constructed for each type of accident cause constructed. The NLP was used for processing each type of cause text of the corpus and training the fastText model to realize the automatic recognition and classification of accident cause text. The method proposed was compared with TextCNN and the other two classical models. The results show that a total of 21 types of accident causes and 6 684 training corpus are obtained, the accuracy of fastText after training can reach 98.92%, and the comprehensive performance is better than the other three methods. The accident text mining system is developed based on 24Model and NLP, which can analyze and process the accident text information quickly and further detail the cause of the accident investigation report, which is convenient for the case study and statistical analysis.

Risk zoo(Ⅰ): composition and characterization of risk mapping based on metaphor theory

TONG Ruipeng, HU Xiangyang, HE Jiehua, SUN Ninghao

2023, 33(6): 27-34. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.0530

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The metaphor theory was used to thoroughly examine the elements and representations of risk mapping in order to improve the understanding and management of risk events. Based on the methodological concept of risk matrix, by examining the metaphorical features of various risk events, the risk mapping was divided into four quadrants: the black swan event, the gray rhino event, the golden monkey event and the white rabbit event. Taking into account the unique mechanisms of risk events and the attitudes and behaviors of managers, the events of "dragon king" and "great white shark" were added, which together with the events of "paper tiger", "white elephant", "dinosaur" and "ostrich" constituted a risk zoo map. Risk management and risk ontology were two viewpoints from which the study and implementation of risk zoo mapping were examined. The findings demonstrate that, in risk management, knowledge of risk assessors is also important besides considering the possibility and consequences of risk events. At the same time, the types of events will change as risk events develop. Finally, a process management theory-based applied universal process framework for risk zoo mapping is presented.

Research on characteristic safety management in oil and gas pipeline industry based on cultural self-confidence

ZHANG Liya, SUN Ninghao, DING Jungang, TONG Ruipeng

2023, 33(6): 35-40. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.0220

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In order to improve the safety atmosphere of enterprises, enhance safety soft power and improve the safety literacy of employees, based on cultural self-confidence, the role of Chinese excellent traditional culture in social development was analyzed through theoretical interpretation. Then, the theoretical connotation of "Principle, Law, Technique, Instrument, Power, and Goal" was clarified and the management wisdom was explored, with seven levels of safety management obtained: essence, method, practical, tool, potential, realization and cycle. The influence mechanism on work safety was explored, as well as the connotation of the important concept of four no-harm. After sorting out the evolution of cultural self-confidence, the theoretical system and framework of safety culture were constructed, and the contents of the seven levels were explained in practice. The research proves that the constructed theoretical framework of characteristic safety culture is more systematic and can guide energy enterprises to carry out safety management practices. Subsequent research will drive research on the application of the theoretical framework to other industries.

Optimization of undergraduate modular teaching in safety based on APRIORI algorithm

ZHAO Wei, WEI Zhongfei, WANG Kai, TONG Ruipeng, WANG Liang, SONG Yanan

2023, 33(6): 41-48. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.2402

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In order to cultivate practical and versatile talents in the field of safety engineering, this study explored the problems caused by course content repetition and proposed solutions. The study analyzed the 28-course curriculum of a safety engineering program, identified and quantified the duplication of knowledge points, and applied the APRIORI algorithm to analyze the course association rules which cover all repetitive points of the courses. Then, based on the calculation results, the possible reasons and corresponding effects are given. Meanwhile, the universality of such problems is analyzed by comparing with the contents of other courses, and the basic methods to reduce the repetition of course content are given. The results show that 41 knowledge points had different degrees of repetition, which was mainly caused by unreasonable teaching design and an imperfect course management system. The study also identified 10 strong association rules between course syllabi and knowledge points, covering 11 courses with high support and confidence levels, indicating a strong correlation between course content. This problem was found to be widespread and could be addressed by optimizing course integration, highlighting content characteristics, and adopting various teaching methods.

Research on thermal model of large format ternary lithium battery under radiation convection heat dissipation

HE Yuanhua, ZHAO Yiming, ZHANG Liheng, WANG Zhiyuan, HUANG Jiang

2023, 33(6): 49-55. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1941

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In order to accurately define the characteristics of battery thermal accumulation during the development of thermal runaway, a combination method of theory and experiment was used to study the thermal model of large format ternary lithium batteries caused by thermal abuse. Firstly, according to the law of conservation of energy, the four heat parameters of the battery thermal model, heat production from heater (Q_e), heat production from chemical reaction (Q_f), heat production from electrical energy release (Q_j) and ambient heat dissipation (Q_d), were clarified. Then, based on the physical heat calculation formula (Q = CMΔθ) and the lumped parameter method, the thermal model for heat abuse of large format ternary lithium batteries was constructed. Secondly, the theoretical analysis of the model parameters was carried out, and the importance of the four thermal parameters on the thermal cumulative change of the battery was investigated. Finally, combined with the experimental data, the value of the surface heat transfer coefficient h was determined by dividing the study scope into points (t_i, θ_i), and the thermal model of the thermal runaway lithium battery in the heat dissipation environment was further verified. The calculation results show that the heat production (Q_w) = 12.88×10⁵ J, the heat dissipation (Q_d) = 6.60×10⁵ J, of which the radiation heat dissipation is 2.91×10⁵ J, and the convection heat dissipation is 3.69×10⁵ J. The thermal runaway peak temperature θ_p is theoretically predicted by the heat calculated by the thermal model, which is highly consistent with the experimental results. The research work can provide guidance for the prevention of thermal disasters caused by the thermal runaway of lithium batteries.

Optimization of cyclone air curtain dust control under control of exhaust outlet on fully mechanized excavation face

GONG Xiaoyan, ZHANG Hao, CHEN Long, FEI Yinghao, WANG Tianshu, NIU Huming

2023, 33(6): 56-63. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1458

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In order to improve the dust control technology of the coal mine heaving face, the synergistic effect of swirling air curtain and air outlet was adopted to optimize the airflow to reduce dust accumulation and improve the ventilation environment of the working face. Combining the attached wall blower and the self-developed airflow control device, the cyclone air curtain and the airflow control system of the extract air outlet under the hybrid ventilation were designed. Firstly, numerical simulation was used to study the influence law of dust transport and distribution caused by the slit width of the wall duct, shaft diameter air volume ratio and suction port diameter, and single parameter variation of deflection angle. Secondly, the particle swarm optimization(PSO) algorithm was used to obtain the optimal control scheme of dual objective optimization of dust in driver and pedestrian positions. Finally, numerical simulation and dust control test platform were built to verify the optimization effect of the optimal solution. The results showed that the dust concentration in the driver's position was reduced by 41.5%, and the average dust concentration of the pedestrian breathing belt at the return air side was reduced by 64.2%. The optimized effect of dust reduction from physical experiments and numerical simulations was in general agreement. The effectiveness of the comprehensive dust removal method of swirling air curtains and air outlets is verified.

Prediction of vibration velocity of deep blasting based on transfer learning

ZHANG Xiliang, JIAO Haokai, LI Erbao

2023, 33(6): 64-72. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.0337

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In order to better predict the blasting vibration velocity of deep mines, aiming at the problems of small sample size and different data distribution in the prediction of blasting vibration velocity of deep mines, the useful knowledge in the blasting data of shallow underground mines was transferred to the prediction model of blasting vibration velocity of deep mines, and an LR-TrAdaboost (transfer learning) algorithm was proposed to improve the sample size and prediction accuracy of the model. Taking the prediction of deep blasting vibration velocity of a copper mine as the research object, combined with 27 deep blasting data of the copper mine and 204 shallow blasting data of five underground metal mines such as Meishan Mine, SVR, TrAdaboost-R² and LR-TrAdaboost algorithms were used for prediction and comparison respectively. The model scores of the three algorithms are 0.24, 0.38 and 0.81, and the root mean square error(RMSE) is 0.152, 0.107 and 0.06, respectively. Compared with SVR and TrAdaboost-R², the prediction error of the LR-TrAdaboost algorithm reduces by 60.5% and 43.9%, respectively. At the same time, LR-TrAdaboost converged when the number of iterations is 50, while TrAdaboost-R² converged after the number of iterations is 100, and the convergence rate is twice that of the latter. Research shows that the LR-TrAdaboost algorithm has better prediction performance.

Application of mine production system based on FRAM

GUO Jinping, MA Zhuoyuan, SUN Yinfeng, HAN Xinya

2023, 33(6): 73-79. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1373

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A quantitative FRAM was proposed to solve the complex system problem caused by the interaction of human, organization and technology in the coal mine production system. Firstly, the FRAM method was improved, and the function variability probability was determined by the statistical results of accident investigation report data. The Apriori algorithm was used to mine the potential relationship between the data, so as to quantify the system variability. Then, with the coal mine production system as the research background, through the analysis of 96 cranes and a large coal mine accident investigation report and production characteristics, a coal mine production FRAM model with 14 functions was established. Finally, the improved FRAM method was used to find the nonlinear coupling resonance chain and its accident evolution path between functional modules of the coal mine production system. The results show that: the implementation of safety inspection before production is not in place, which has a bad impact on the system. The worse the scene performance conditions are, the more critical coupling is likely to occur, resulting in a resonance phenomenon.

Intelligent detection method for submarine pipelines based on Faster R-CNN

YU Jin, TANG Jianhua, SHEN Xiangkai, LIU Jinhai

2023, 33(6): 80-87. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.2360

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In order to improve the detection accuracy of submarine pipeline defects and components and to realize intelligent submarine pipeline safety detection, a Faster R-CNN-based intelligent detection method for submarine pipelines was proposed. Firstly, the key features of the signals were enhanced by converting the signals into a pseudo-color map through basis value correction and segmentation mapping-pseudo-colorization methods. Secondly, the generalization capability of the detection model was improved based on multimodal data enhancement. Then, the improved Faster R-CNN network was trained based on the samples after multimodal data enhancement to establish the optimal intelligent detection model. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method was verified by using the test site and the Bohai Sea in service as examples. The results show that the average detection accuracy of the proposed method can reach 93.8%, which is 8% better than the original Faster R-CNN algorithm, and the average intersection over union reaches 0.75, which can accurately achieve the multi-target detection of submarine oil and gas pipelines and ensure the safe operation of submarine pipelines.

Construction safety risk assessment of prefabricated subway station based on cloud model

LUO Zhenhua, GUO Juntao, HAN Jianqiang

2023, 33(6): 88-95. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.0860

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In order to effectively evaluate the construction safety risk of prefabricated subway stations, reduce construction safety accidents and ensure construction safety, a risk evaluation model based on a combination weighting and cloud model was proposed. Firstly, the construction safety risk factors were identified based on national standards and project information and then optimized by the Delphi method, to establish a construction safety risk assessment index system including 6 first-level and 25 second-level indexes. Then, using the entropy weight method and continuous ordered weighted averaging (C-OWA) operator to determine the index weight and the cloud model to determine the risk assessment level. Finally, the above evaluation method was verified based on a prefabricated subway station project. The results show that the evaluation grade of the project is relatively low risk, which is consistent with the actual situation of the construction site. However, the risk level of personnel and construction technology is medium, which should be given priority consideration when taking safety prevention and control measures.

Experimental study on mechanical response and seepage characteristics of broken coal under true triaxial stress conditions

LIU Yubing, WANG Enyuan, ZHANG Dongming, LI Minghui

2023, 33(6): 105-113. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1428

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In order to investigate the mechanical response and seepage characteristics of coal in broken areas during deep underground coal mining, the multi-functional true triaxial fluid-solid coupling apparatus was used. The distribution of internal fractures of broken coal after failure was detected and analyzed by using the computed tomography (CT) scanning system. The strength characteristics, permeability evolution, and failure modes of broken coal under different intermediate principal stresses were obtained. The research results show that broken coal presents brittle-ductile failure characteristics under true triaxial stress conditions, and the peak strength shows an ascending-then-descending trend with the increase of intermediate principal stresses. The permeability of the broken coal body does not increase significantly before failure and continues to decrease at the post-peak stage. Furthermore, the permeability varies more at the pre-peak stage. The macro-fracture forms of broken coal after failure are mainly shear fractures, and the macro-shear failure plane presents asymmetrical distribution characteristics. In order to ensure the safe mining of deep coal, attention should be paid to the change of tectonic stress and fracture structure in the broken coal seam area on site, and the gas drainage in the broken coal seam area or the grouting reinforcement scheme for the broken coal rock roadway should be adjusted.

Risk early warning model of cruise ship construction material logistics collection and distribution based on RS-RBFNN

XIE Luqiang, XU Jing, WANG Haiyan

2023, 33(6): 114-121. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1033

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An ensemble risk early warning model based on RS and RBFNN fusion was proposed. After constructing the risk early warning index system, the ANP was used to analyze the coupling relationship between indicators and determine the weight values. The efficacy coefficient method was used to determine the historical data alarm, which was used as the output of the neural network. The RS-RBFNN model was used to conduct a risk early warning research on the logistics of mechanical and electrical materials during the construction of a cruise ship, and the performance was compared with RBFNN, BPNN and RS-BPNN. The research shows that the RS-RBFNN model effectively simplifies the neural network structure, improves efficiency and accuracy, and overcomes the shortcomings of BPNN of training time long, poor stability and easy to fall into local minima.

Research and application of intelligent device for collaborative perception of safety risk in lifting operations

ZHANG Gan, GUO Shengyu, ZHOU Xiaojie, DONG Yimeng, WU Di, XIAO Tianlong

2023, 33(6): 122-127. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.2237

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To address the limitations of single types of devices (e.g., sensors, intelligent cameras) in perceiving safety risks during the high-risk command-operation interactions in lifting operations, an intelligent device integrating computer vision technology and sensors (easily called an intelligent device) was developed for the collaborative perception of safety risks in lifting operations. First, the motion characteristics of the signalman and the crane in lifting were analyzed. Then, to eliminate the risk of crane operators' misoperation in lifting, a risk cooperative perception framework for the intelligent device was proposed in combination with the different motion characteristics and work requirements of man-machine. Finally, the feasibility test of the risk perception accuracy and risk perception latency of intelligent device was carried out in the laboratory simulation environment. The lab-based simulated experiment results demonstrate that the intelligent device could collaboratively perceive the safety risks during command-operation interaction in lifting operations. Instances of misoperation by crane operators can be alarmed in real-time, with a risk perception accuracy of 95.17% and a risk perception latency of approximately 0.25 s.

Safe travel path planning method for railway passengers during pandemic

LYU Hongxia, LIU Kun, JIANG Xueying, PAN Jinshan

2023, 33(6): 128-134. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.0770

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In order to reduce the risk of passenger travel infection during the pandemic, and help scientific and accurate epidemic prevention and control, a dynamic planning method for railway passengers' safe travel path considering real-time regional infection risk was proposed. Firstly, based on the probabilistic risk theory, the regional infection risk was defined as the function of infection outbreak probability and impact level. The regional infection risk was evaluated by considering the passenger exchange intensity, regional population and mobility. Secondly, comprehensively considering the regional infection risk, travel time and ticket price, the generalized travel cost was obtained by the Logit model. The generalized travel cost between adjacent nodes as the weights of the network edges, and then the railway travel service network considering the travel infection risk was constructed. Finally, based on passenger travel demands and the principles of travel path decisions during the pandemic, a railway passenger safe travel path planning model with the goal of minimizing the generalized travel cost was established, and solved by the Dijkstra algorithm. Taking the path selection from Hengshui to Beijing as an example, the method proposed in this paper was compared with the path planning method that only considers travel time and travel costs, and the changes of the actual passenger flow sharing rate for each scheme were analyzed. The research results show that: based on the passenger travel data from the rail service network, the infection risk can be evaluated by the method proposed in the paper. And the results are significantly correlated with the active cases. The risk of travel infection is an important factor influencing travelers' choice of travel routes, causing a significant increase in travel costs, and the route planning results in the paper are generally consistent with the actual travel patterns during the pandemic.

Safety risk evolution reasoning research of subway station construction under heavy rainfall

CHEN Wei, TIAN Yishuai, ZHAO Zhuoya, WANG Yanhua, GUO Daoyuan

2023, 33(6): 135-143. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.0383

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Heavy rainfall is prone to cause safety accidents in subway station construction, so it is necessary to uncover the disaster-causing mechanism of such projects under heavy rainfall and evaluate the construction safety risks. A fault tree with 2 top events, 27 intermediate events and 47 fundamental events was obtained through BT analysis. The improved IFPBN safety risk evaluation reasoning model was obtained from two aspects of node fuzzy polymorphism and intuitionistic fuzzy optimization based on Bayesian Network (BN) theory. Model validation was conducted for Guangzhou Metro Line 21 using deductive reasoning. The results show that the calculation results of the optimized model are consistent with the actual situation, and are more accurate and efficient. The constructed risk evolution structure, heavy rainfall level, people's unsafe behavior and unsafe state of project environment are important macro factors affecting the construction safety risk of subway station under heavy rainfall. The chaos of emergency organization, lack of safety awareness and the support instability are important micro factors.

Passenger flow distribution method under urban rail transit operation interruption

ZHOU Huijuan, WENG Dongyang, LI Bei, WU Wenxiang, ZHANG Zhe

2023, 33(6): 144-151. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1434

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To accurately grasp the passenger flow distribution status under the condition of urban rail transit line operation interruption and improve the level of rail transit emergency response and decision-making, firstly, comprehensively considering the impact of train congestion and transfer behavior on passenger travel path, an impedance function based on passenger travel path was constructed to calculate the mean and variance of travel impedance and set the judgment conditions for selecting an effective path. Secondly, fully considering the limited rationality of passengers' risk and decision-making behavior in uncertain environment, the strategy of passenger route selection under line interruption was studied and analyzed based on cumulative prospect theory, the endogenous reference point based on travel time was set, and the cumulative foreground value of passenger travel path was calculated. Finally, a Logit-type stochastic equilibrium model of network passenger flow distribution under urban rail transit interruption was established. The model was solved by method of successive algorithm (MSA) and the weighted distribution of traffic on each path was realized by Matlab programming. The feasibility and validity of the model were verified by taking the actual interruption event of Beijing Metro Line 5 as an example. The results show that the error rate between the passenger flow distribution results of this model and the actual data of the passenger flow of Beijing Metro section is within ± 10% at each section, which can effectively identify and master the passenger route selection behavior under interruption, and can accurately identify the congested section conditions.

Fire detection model of wildland-urban interface based on YOLOv5s

WANG Zhe, LI Xiang, YANG Dongliang, LIU Dan

2023, 33(6): 152-158. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1532

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In order to accurately monitor the fires at wildland-urban interfaces and locate their spatial distribution, a target detection model of wildland-urban interface fires based on the improved YOLOv5s network was proposed. Images of fires at the wildland-urban interfaces were collected, and object detection datasets were annotated with the image annotation tool. CA mechanism was introduced into the backbone network of YOLOv5s to enhance the orientation and location information perception of the model to accurately locate the fire point at the wildland-urban interface. Based on the evaluation indicators of accuracy, recall rate and average accuracy, training and testing were carried out on the self-built data set. The experimental results show that the overall performance of the improved YOLOv5s model is improved, and the average accuracy of building fires increases by 0.8% and forest fires by 1.3% in the detection of fire targets in the wildland-urban interface.

Research on risk factors of hazardous material highway transport accidents based on association rules

WANG Aidi, XING Yingying, ZHANG Shiwen, LU Jian

2023, 33(6): 159-165. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1618

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In order to understand the characteristics and causes of hazmat transport accidents, detailed data of 1 721 hazmat transport accidents was collected. After eliminating invalid and lost accident records, 6 direct risk factors and their 18 subfactors were extracted. Furthermore, the attribute value of each risk factor variable was coded. The association rule mining technology based on the Apriori algorithm was used to quantify the degree of correlation between risk factors. After inductive analysis, 35 valuable association rules were found to explore the influence of different risk factor combinations on hazmat transport accidents. The results show that 24% of hazmat transport accidents occur on trucks carrying 24-39 tons of flammable liquid, and 13% of hazmat transport accidents involve corrosive substances, and the consequence is leakage. As for accident types, 34% of hazmat transportation accidents are rollover accidents of a single truck, and the lower the road grade is, the greater the possibility of a rollover accident. Hazmat transport accidents on low-grade highways are more likely to occur at night, because of the complex horizontal, vertical lines and imperfect traffic safety facilities of low-grade roads and the driver's reaction ability and vision conditions are constrained.

High-speed railway operation plan considering passenger demand under public health events

WANG Yue, MENG Xuelei, QIN Yongsheng, LI Yi'na

2023, 33(6): 166-173. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1410

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To optimize high-speed railway operation plan under public events, a multi-objective optimization model was established with the highest expectations of infectious disease prevention and control, the lowest interchange fees in public health events and the lowest enterprise operation cost as the optimization objective. It took the carrying capacity and train capacity under the infectious disease prevention and control policy as the constraints. The TSABC algorithm was designed to solve the model. Matlab programming was utilized to verify the rationality of the model and algorithm with the example of Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway. The results indicate that compared with the artificial bee colony algorithm, the improved algorithm has better solution quality. Compared with the initial solution, the optimal solution has reduced by 28.90% in the prevention and control penalty value. Compared to the situation of non-infectious disease prevention and control, it is reduced by 40.53% and the total number of running trains decreased by 21. The result shows that during the prevention and control of public health events, the operation plan can be optimized by reducing the number of trains and stops at high-risk stations, and stopping at stations of the same risk level.

Fire risk assessment of air film stadium based on WSR-game weighting-regret theory

LI Xiaoran, CHEN Xin, XIE Zhongpeng

2023, 33(6): 174-180. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1592

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In order to improve the fire risk assessment level of the air film stadium, identify fire hazards in time and reduce fire risks, a fire risk assessment model based on the game empowerment regret theory was constructed. The improved analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy weight method were used to calculate the subjective and objective weights of indicators, the game theory was used to determine the combined weight, and the regret theory was used to evaluate the fire risk level. Based on the theory of WSR, a fire risk assessment index system for an air film stadium was constructed, including four primary and 24 secondary indicators. Based on empirical research, safety management suggestions were proposed. Research has shown that the WSR theory is suitable for constructing a fire risk assessment index system for air-film stadiums. Determine the weight based on game theory to achieve subjective and objective balance. Evaluate risk level based on regret theory, integrating qualitative and quantitative advantages, focusing on objective data and avoiding behavioral preferences. Based on WSR-game weighting-regret theory model, a fire risk assessment was conducted on a certain air film stadium, and the evaluation result was level IV, which is "lower risk", which is in line with the actual situation of the venue.

Research on stagnation time and recovery time of enterprises based on accelerated failure time model

YANG Lijiao, LIU Yan, JIANG Xinyu

2023, 33(6): 181-189. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.0990

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In order to help enterprises develop post-disaster recovery countermeasures and better respond to disaster threats, AFT model was used to study the influencing factors and model parameters of the shutdown and recovery time of disaster-stricken enterprises. Then, taking the torrential rain and flood disaster that occurred in Enshi City on July 17, 2020, as an example, based on 377 data samples collected from field investigation, an AFT model was constructed, and 10 factors affecting the shutdown and recovery of enterprises were used as explanatory variables to estimate the shutdown and recovery time parameters of commercial enterprises under the flood disaster scenario. Then, based on the data of Enshi City and the existing data of Yuyao City, the differences between different affected areas under the same disaster were explored. The results show that the depth of submerged water, inventory loss rate, garbage removal time and pre-disaster warning time are the main factors affecting the shutdown of enterprises. The depth of submerged water, the time of water outage and the rate of inventory loss are the main factors affecting the recovery of enterprises. Compared to other types of commercial enterprises, businesses in the accommodation and restaurant industry have the shortest average recovery time.

Construction and application of urban emergency preparedness capability assessment index system

JIANG Jun, CHEN Yan, HE Gangfeng, GAO Yueyi, FENG Jingyu, HE Haibo

2023, 33(6): 190-197. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.2446

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In order to objectively assess urban emergency preparedness, and address the issues of poor data collection standardization and strong subjectivity in the evaluation of urban emergency preparedness capacity in the past, research on the construction and application of assessment index system was conducted. Firstly, the establishment of the evaluation index pool was based on the provisions of the Emergency Response Law, the requirements for the safe development of urban construction, and the content of the provincial and municipal "14^th Five Year Plan" emergency system construction plan. It also drew on the experience of the disaster resilience score card for cities issued by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. Then, based on the statistical analysis of the current research results of emergency preparedness capacity in 36 regions, a 2-level evaluation system and grading criteria for responding to natural disasters and accident disasters, including 6 first-level indicators and 38 second-level indicators, were constructed. The evaluation model had been applied in a county-level City A in Jiangsu Province. The results show that the constructed "6-38" system has good adaptability to the characterization of urban emergency preparedness capacity, and the evaluation model can effectively identify the shortcomings of urban emergency capacity. It is shown that the quantitative characterization rate of the constructed "6-38" evaluation system indicators exceeds 80%. The evaluation results of City A are relatively consistent with its actual situation, which objectively reflects the overall level of emergency preparedness. Therefore, it indicates that the model is feasible and effective.

Occupational safety and health risks and potential moderating effects of exercise in firefighters:a resilience-related biomarker perspective

YANG Sanjun, WANG Kun, MENG Yunchen

2023, 33(6): 198-206. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.2344

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In order to explain the causes of the psychological collapse and revitalisation of firefighters under extreme work stress from a natural science perspective, the potential moderating effects were explored. Firstly, the effects of firefighting occupational stress on resilience-related biomarkers were collated and summarised. Then, by drawing on the results of different special populations in the field of resilience-related biomarker research, possible pathways were explored in the construction of resilience biomonitoring models appropriate to the firefighting occupation. Finally, it was elucidated whether firefighters have a potential moderating effect in resisting the negative effects of firefighting occupational stress on resilience-related biomarkers from the perspective of exercise. The results show that: firefighting occupational stress can disrupt the equilibrium of resilience bio-adaptation and adversely affect firefighter occupational safety and health. A resilience biomonitoring model appropriate for firefighting occupations needs to be constructed based on a balanced combination of appropriate biomarkers with reference to the selection of indicators for different specialised populations; exercise has potential modulatory effects on the benign development of resilience-related biomarkers in terms of promoting neuroendocrine homeostatic balance, upregulating anabolism and enhancing anti-inflammation.

Analysis of literature cases of artificial stone silicosis

CHANG Dou, DING Cui, YE Qiao, MA Jun, WANG Sheng

2023, 33(6): 207-213. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.2172

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In order to reduce the incidence rate of artificial stone silicosis in China, the composition, exposure opportunity, clinical characteristics and epidemiological characteristics of literature cases of workplace silica dust were analyzed. Finally, comprehensive measures such as wet cutting, ventilation, personal protection, et al, to prevent the occurrence of silicosis in the workplace were proposed. The results show that dry cutting, excessive concentration of crystalline silica, without ventilation and personal protective measures in the workplace were the main causes of artificial stone silicosis. From 2010 to 2019, Spain, Israel, Italy, the United States, Australia and China reported a total of 131 literature cases of artificial stone silicosis. With the mass production, processing and use of artificial stone, the number of cases increased. Most of the literature cases were about 30-50 years old. They had exposed to silica dust exposure for more than 10 years, and they were usually male. Many cases had no obvious symptoms in the early stage. As the disease progresses or complications, symptoms such as cough, expectoration, chest tightness, shortness of breath and chest pain might appear. Sometimes the clinical features were different from the changes of X-ray chest film. The content of crystalline silica in artificial stone was more than 70%, and the concentration of silica dust exceeded occupational exposure Limits in the working environment of their own countries. There were no dust suppression measures, such as dry cutting, without ventilation, et al, in most workplace. Most literature cases did not wear qualified respiratory protective equipment at work.

Bayesian-inference-based fire protective clothing model and thermal protective performance impact analysis

LIU Jikun, MA Chuanli, YANG Jie

2023, 33(6): 214-222. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1741

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To depict the influence mechanism of heat transfer parameters on the thermal protection performance, the probabilistic regression relation between multi-heat transfer parameters and thermal protection performance index of fire-fighting protective clothing was constructed using Bayesian inference. Combined with the time-varying differential equation concerning the heat transfer process of "environment-clothing-air layer-skin", several characteristic heat transfer parameters affecting the thermal protection performance were extracted. On this basis, a Bayesian inference-based probabilistic regression model was constructed, and the weight and probability distribution information of the influence of heat transfer parameters on thermal protection performance were analyzed. Furthermore, the feasibility of the constructed model was demonstrated within a cross-validation analysis. The results suggest that there is a positive correlation between the apparent heat capacity, the fabric thickness and the burn time, while there is a negative correlation between thermal conductivity and burn time. The influence of the fabric thickness on the thermal protection performance is greater than sensible heat capacity and thermal conductivity. In addition, the impact of different fabric parameter setting on skin burn index via this proposed model can be approximately quantified.

Experimental study on effect of mine ventilation suit on human thermal physiological response

YOU Bo, WANG Siqi, HAN Qiaoyun, MAO Cong, YANG Xinyu

2023, 33(6): 223-230. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.1171

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In order to analyze the effect of mine ventilation clothing on human thermal physiology, and to explore the relationship between different ambient temperature, human labor intensity, pipeline structure and ventilation volume of mine ventilation clothing and human thermal physiological response, a human training test was carried out based on artificial environment test chamber and test measuring instrument, and test data were collected and recorded. By analyzing the human thermal physiological changes of three different pipeline structures of mine ventilation clothing under 36 different working conditions, combined with bivariate correlation analysis function, the correlation between three factors of different ambient temperature, clothing ventilation volume and labor intensity and human thermal physiology under three pipeline structures was sought. The results show that the uniformity of air volume distribution in the micro space of three kinds of ventilated clothes is transverse type > mixed type > vertical type. In terms of the overall effect, under the same working condition, the influence of pipeline structure from high to low is transverse type, mixed type and vertical type; the ambient temperature mainly affects the average skin temperature and heart rate, the ventilation volume mainly affects the systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure, and the labor intensity mainly affects the sweating volume.

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