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    28 May 2023, Volume 33 Issue 5
    Safety science theory and safety system science
    Investigation of safety & security attributes
    WU Chao
    2023, 33(5):  1-8.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.0926
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    The words safety & security (simplified as SS) are the most basic terms of SS discipline. Only by clarifying SS characteristics, connotation, extension and development timely can we better understand SS science and study its development law. Therefore, using the methods of historical analysis and logical thinking and reasoning, this paper expounded the dimension and complexity of SS, the specialty and popularity of SS, the ontology and epistemology of SS, the natural and social attributes of SS, and the classification method of SS definitions. Then the nature and characteristics of the discipline of SS science were inferred. The research conclusions are as follows: discussing SS issues requires a common language environment. The SS goes beyond the scope of technological terminology. Since SS is a reflection of human understanding, it is difficult for SS issues research to enter the ontological level. The natural and social characteristics of human beings determine that SS has dual attributes of nature and society, and the eternal nature of contradictions, which leads to the complexity of SS issues and the diversity of its definitions. The paradigm of giving SS definition through "preset + SS" can better express the scope and margin of SS.

    Logic, challenges and strategies of overall energy development and security
    XU Xiaomin
    2023, 33(5):  9-16.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.2506
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    In order to improve the current energy development dilemma, the typical patterns of foreign energy development and security and the paradigm of China's energy development and security in the new era were sorted out from the current theme of international energy development environment. Future strategic orientation was studied, and current energy development strategies are explored. The results show that the imbalance between energy production and consumption determines that China's energy development faces challenges such as high external dependence, low cleanliness, high security risks, weak scientific and technological innovation capacity, and lack of international energy dominance and discourse. From the perspective of medium and long-term development strategy, China should take energy transformation, break through energy blockade and achieve energy independence as the strategic direction, optimize energy supply structure, strengthen international energy interconnection and enhance international energy discourse, take new energy revolution as an important initiative, rely on initiatives such as clean coal, stable oil and increased gas, vigorously develop new energy strategy, accelerate energy innovation drive and seek energy independence.

    On risk sociological evolution and development of its relevant academic knowledge pedigree
    YAN Ye
    2023, 33(5):  17-25.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.1303
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    In order to explore the disciplinary knowledge system research of sociology on risk-related issues, the method of literature review was used to retrospect the risk research since the birth of sociology, especially the exploration of risk sociology as an academic knowledge system. Research results show that the exploration of risk sociology as a disciplinary knowledge system was initially formed in the 1980s, but it has not yet developed into a mature one. At the same time, sociological research on risk-related issues, such as conflict, crisis, disaster (catastrophe), security and emergency, have emerged at home and abroad one after another, thus forming a huge “family tree” of knowledge. This study shows that until today, the sociology of risk and its genealogy have not become a complete “explicit learning” for many reasons, but they have their own growth foundation and great achievements in China. Sociology, safety science and emergency management should increase support and research efforts to promote the development and growth of the risk sociology pedigree, so as to further highlight Chinese style and Chinese experience, and enrich the theoretical system, discourse system and discipline system for sociology, safety science and emergency response with Chinese characteristics, which promotes safe development of the community with a shared future for mankind.

    An empirical study on training system of practical application-oriented emergency management undergraduate talents in new era
    OUYANG Zhenhua, WANG Qiong, YI Haiyang, WANG Hua
    2023, 33(5):  26-34.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.0398
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    In order to promote the innovation of talent training system, the present study conducted an empirical study on training objectives, training models and training paths of emergency management talents in 22 colleges and universities. The results of the empirical study show that the talent training objectives of most colleges and universities are to cultivate application-oriented emergency talents with broad vision, broad interdisciplinary ability, and high comprehensive quality. To achieve the talent training objectives, advanced teaching concepts and methods are introduced, and the forces of the governments, enterprises and colleges are assembled to enhance the talent training quality of emergency management by constructing teaching material, curriculum system, teacher teams and professional base. Subsequently, the talent training model of “three modernizations and three systems” including paramilitary, practical, professional, credit system, academy system, and dual tutor system is developed. Finally, a training system of emergency management talent that integrates the talent training objective, talent training mode, and discipline construction is innovatively proposed, which can provide a strong guarantee for cultivating application-oriented talents in emergency management major in the new era.

    Safety social science and safety management
    Study on miners' attention under different noise conditions based on EEG data
    LU Caiwu, GAO Ruiyang, XU Xiaohui, JIANG Song, LIU Di, FU Xinkai
    2023, 33(5):  35-41.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.2228
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    In order to explore the negative impact of noise on the brain cognition of miners, this study carried out an attention study under different noise conditions (30, 50, 70, 90 dB) by designing an EEG test and combining with the noise collected in Fuquan Mine, Shandong Province. Wavelet packet transform was used to extract the features of the collected EEG signals, and the value of θ/β was selected as the attention feature value, and the analysis results were further verified by Stroop test. The results show that β wave always occupies the dominant position in the energy proportion map, and reaches the peak at the second condition in the brain topography map. The characteristic value of attention (θ/β) shows an overall increasing trend. At 40 min, the value of working condition 4 increases by 46.19% compared with that of working condition 2, indicating that attention reaches the best at 50 dB noise environment, and the attenuability of attention is significantly enhanced at 90 dB noise environment. Stroop experiment showed that the time of working condition 2 is the shortest and the correct number is the most, and the reliability of working condition 4 is only 78.8%. The study on the effect of EEG on miners' attention under different noise levels can provide reference for the development of shift system and subsequent related research in mining enterprises.

    Unsafe behavior recognition of air traffic controllers based on ST-GCN
    WANG Chao, XU Chuxin, DONG Jie, WANG Zhifeng
    2023, 33(5):  42-48.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.1396
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    In order to prevent and supervise the violation behavior in ATC, an unsafe behavior recognition model suitable for controllers' sitting posture was studied by intelligent video analysis technology. Firstly, the hidden characteristics of unsafe working behaviors of air traffic controllers were analyzed, and five typical unsafe behaviors of air traffic controllers were summarized, including stretching, dozing, falling asleep, crooked asleep and half lying asleep, and the video data set of controllers unsafe working status (CUWS) was constructed. Secondly, a skeleton key point expansion algorithm that can describe the controller's sitting posture was proposed. Based on ST-GCN, an ATC-ST-GCN model suitable for sitting posture and legs hidden from view was built,and the workflow of the controller's unsafe behavior recognition was given. Finally, the ATC-ST-GCN model was trained and tested using the CUWS dataset, and the verification test was carried out using the actual surveillance video of the control room. The results show that the model can identify five typical unsafe behaviors on the limited validation dataset, and the accuracy rate reaches 93.65%. The experimental results show that the model is scientific and effective.

    Quantitative evaluation of pilots' unsafe operation behavior driven by QAR data
    WANG Lei, ZOU Ying, WANG Shuo
    2023, 33(5):  49-56.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.2300
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    To achieve a quantitative evaluation of pilots' unsafe operation behavior, this study proposed a method based on QAR data to evaluate pilots' unsafe operation behavior. Firstly, the theory and classification methods of human unsafe behavior were analyzed, and then five evaluation indexes (Time deviation, Sequence error, Omission, Redundancy, Over limit) were proposed from the time dimension and space dimension based on pilots' unsafe operation behavior characteristics. Then, 78 flight experts were asked to classify the unsafe events of FOQA according to the five evaluation indexes mentioned above. After that, the quantitative evaluation index system of unsafe operation behavior of pilots was formed, which covered the whole flight operation process. Finally, a quantitative evaluation model of pilots' unsafe operation behavior was constructed, and the quantitative calculation of pilots' unsafe operation behavior was realized by combining QAR data. The results show that this method can be used for quantitative evaluation of pilots' unsafe operation behaviors such as error and violation, and provide a reference for airlines to carry out specific risk management and training of unsafe behaviors.

    Hierarchy location optimization of low-altitude flight service station based on risk constraints
    CHEN Huaqun, YANG Weichao
    2023, 33(5):  57-65.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.2258
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    In order to ensure the scientific operation of low-altitude general navigation flight service work, the risk constraint mechanism of service response and economic cost was introduced and MOGA was improved to study the location optimization of low-altitude flight service station. Based on analysis of low-altitude flight service support system, the functions of three service coverage modes for two types of demand were determined. According to the hardware and software constraints of low-altitude flight service station location, a risk-constrained hierarchical location decision mechanism and evaluation index were established. Based on coverage decision theory, a multi-objective optimization model of safety risk and service cost was established. Based on Pareto ranking, fitness conversion function was designed, and a multi-objective genetic algorithm with minus-max evaluation method was constructed. It was verified by using 250 000 km2 of Sichuan Basin. Compared with dynamic programming method, the results show that the multi-objective improved genetic method based on coverage decision can increase service efficiency by 14.5%, reduce duplicate coverage by 21.3%, reduce security risk by 13.4% and reduce total cost by 13.2%. The hierarchical mechanism of low-altitude flight service station location based on risk constraints balances the safety risk, service efficiency and location cost of low-altitude flight service station layout.

    Challenges and solutions of energy and resources security in high-quality development stage
    GAO Laiju, YUE Hao
    2023, 33(5):  66-73.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.0058
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    In order to address the challenges of energy and resource security in the high-quality development stage, and clarify the connotation of energy security in the high-quality development stage, the development of energy and resource security in China was analyzed using bibliometric methods. The research focuses and hotspots at the current stage were identified. It was analyzed and judged from five aspects: "dual carbon" goals, supply security, domestic security, international competition, and non-traditional security. Five countermeasures for energy security: adhering to the principle of first establishing and then breaking, expanding the energy resource supply chain, simultaneously tapping internal potential and increasing reserves, avoiding maritime transportation security risks, and improving the level of non-traditional security control, were proposed. Research shows that in the past two decades, the connotation of energy and resource security in China's high-quality development stage has been continuously enriched, and low-carbon transformation, energy cooperation, and climate change have gradually become research hotspots at this stage. It is necessary to comprehensively consider and accurately formulate strategic measures. Due to the inherent shortage of mineral resources in China, energy resource security faces multiple risks and challenges, which need to be cracked from multiple dimensions, such as energy resource reserves, supply guarantee capabilities, and non-traditional security control. Enhance the awareness of hardship, constantly improve the awareness of risk challenges, and build a reasonable, effective and comprehensive risk response system.

    Research on attention of local government's transportation work safety policy
    ZHENG Xiumei, TIAN Xiaokang, LUO Xi, MA Guoyu, LI Zhiheng
    2023, 33(5):  74-80.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.1778
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    In order to optimize the local government transportation work safety policy system, a theoretical framework of policy analysis on transportation work safety was constructed from the dual perspectives of policy tools and policy objectives. Among them, the policy tools were divided into three dimensions: environment, supply and demand, and the policy objectives were summarized in five dimensions, namely, improving the essential safety level, improving the safety governance system, strengthening the operation and management capacity, improving the emergency response ability and promoting the safety science and technology innovation. With the help of Nvivo software, the content analysis method was used to study the attention configuration of transportation work safety policies of 27 provincial local governments. The results show that the intensity of attention allocation of local government policy tools from high to low is supply, environment and demand. There are four configuration modes: supply-driven essential safety and technological innovation, environmental-guided safety governance system improvement, demand-driven operation and management capacity strengthening, and emergency protection jointly promoted by environment and supply.The configuration of demand-based and environment-based policy tools in the field of safety technology innovation, the configuration of demand-based policy tools in the field of traffic emergency and the cultivation of traffic safety culture in the whole society need to be strengthened.

    Comparison of laws and regulations related to management of occupational psychology aiming at promoting OSH
    YANG Xiaoyi, YANG Chunxue, ZHU Yuchen, YANG Xuesong
    2023, 33(5):  81-87.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.1931
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    In order to improve laws and regulations related to employees' occupational psychology under the background of occupational safety and health, first, the currently effective documents at the national and local level and in different effect stratum were collected and selected. Then, the time when the laws and regulations came into force and employees who they focused on were analyzed by employing the method of descriptive statistics. Furthermore, the scores of each document were acquired by using the method of quantitative assessment, and an international comparison with the EU countries and Australia was conducted. The results show that 178 laws and regulations related to manage employees' occupational psychology are obtained. Most of them focus on teachers, workers in enterprises and all the employees. In addition, more and more attentions has been paid to the significance of this topic since 2012 and 2009 at the national and local level separately. However, when it comes to promoting employees' occupational psychological health, the scores of laws and regulations are relatively low, and there are insufficient documents to manage employees' occupational psychology from the aspect of objectives and scope, exposure factors, problems or disorders and related outcomes, risk assessment and preventive actions. Then, by conducting international comparison, it can be found that the management of employees' occupational psychology lags behind. This issue is still in its infancy, the related system is still immature, and the laws and regulations need to be revised.

    Semi-quantitative analysis of safety duties in confined space operations based on FRAM
    WANG Hanyu, TAN Qinwen
    2023, 33(5):  88-95.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.1382
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    FRAM was introduced to build a semi-quantitative analysis model of operation security duty relation in order to solve problems such as the fuzzy boundary of security duty of operation-related personnel and the unclear interaction of multi-post and multi-link security duty in the process of performing duties. Quantifying the upstream and downstream coupling variability of the functional units clarified the influence mechanism of coupling among the functional parts of the system. The findings demonstrate that the global system variability value of safety responsibilities for 6 parties involved in confined space operations based on FRAM is 1.99×1010, and the input variability impact values for downstream functional units F5(Operators)and F6(Emergency responders)are 171.5 and 250, respectively. The coupling variation of upstream functional units has a significant impact on the system and is prone to adverse accident consequences. Combined with the functional resonance results of the analysis of 8 types of critical impact factors for confined space operations, effective barrier measures such as strengthening operational safety inputs are proposed for 2 upstream functional units and 6 failure chains.

    Safety engineering technology
    Construction safety training information presentation learning effect evaluation
    ZHENG Xiazhong, WANG Yu, CHEN Yun, ZHANG Meng, HE Shuangan
    2023, 33(5):  96-102.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.0933
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    In order to accurately evaluate the learning effect of information presentation mode of construction safety training, a simulated eye movement test of construction safety training was designed, and a multi-factor evaluation method of learning effect of information presentation mode was proposed. Firstly, according to the declarative and procedural characteristics of safety training information, four kinds of information presentation methods, such as text, picture, animation and video, were selected to combine eight kinds of training materials to carry out eye movement text. Then, a multi-factor evaluation index system was constructed based on eye movement data, and a comprehensive evaluation model of learning effect was established and applied to the comprehensive evaluation of safety training learning effect. The results show that the knowledge of construction safety training is presented in different ways, which changes the fluency or complexity of information perception, indirectly affects the mental activities that learners need to spend, and ultimately affects the cognitive effect of learning. For declarative knowledge, under the four presentation modes, the order of learners' learning effect is animation, picture, video and text, for procedural knowledge, the order of learning effect is animation, text, video and picture.

    Study on coupling evolution of collapse risk of deep underground tunnel from perspective of catastrophe
    JIANG Xin, WANG Jingwen, WANG Yaowei, YANG Shangqu, YAO Chengming, JIN Lianghai
    2023, 33(5):  103-111.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.1494
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    In order to effectively prevent the collapse accidents in the construction of deep underground tunnels, firstly, based on the trajectory intersection theory, the risk factors of tunnel collapse were divided into two categories: people and objects, and the risk index system was analyzed and established. Then, the improved variable weight AHP was used to determine the comprehensive weight of each index, established the risk coupling mutation model, calculated the coupling degree, and analyzed the evolution path of tunnel collapse risk under the influence of human and physical risk factors. At the same time, the influence of random disturbance factors on tunnel collapse risk was considered, and the traditional cusp model was supplemented and improved. Finally, the effectiveness of the risk coupling catastrophe model was verified by an application example of the tailrace pipe maintenance gate chamber on the right bank of Baihetan hydropower station. The results show that the coupling degree of the collapse risk in the tail inspection room is 0.856 2, which is in the strength coupling range, and there is a strong coupling effect among the factors. In addition, when the value range of the random disturbance factor is (-1.287 8, -0.427 2), it will lead to the continuous breeding of potential risks out of control and outbreak, increasing the probability of collapse accidents.

    Detection and resolution strategy of UAV low-altitude conflict based on geometric relations
    YUE Rentian, MA Zhaofei
    2023, 33(5):  112-120.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.2049
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    In order to ensure the flight safety of multi-rotor UAVs in low-altitude airspace, a conflict detection model and conflict resolution strategy for UAV low-altitude flights were proposed. According to the current Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) data of the UAV, the interactive multi-model volumetric Kalman filtering algorithm (IMM-CKF) was used to predict the trajectory of the next stage, and the potential conflict objects were screened. According to the characteristics of the flight protection area, the AABB bounding boxes of the two aircrafts are constructed, and the three-dimensional collision detection algorithm was used to judge whether the two aircraft conflict, and SOSA flight conflict resolution strategy was proposed. Finally, four common conflict scenarios were constructed. The proposed algorithm was used to detect flight conflict. The SOSA combined resolution strategy and the traditional resolution strategy, such as the height adjustment method, the direction adjustment method and the speed adjustment method were used to resolve the flight conflict according to the situation. The results show that the flight conflict detection method based on the AABB bounding box can quickly detect conflicts within 0.02 s, and the use of SOSA combined resolution strategy can reduce the increase of the flying distance to less than 5% of the direct flight distance compared with the traditional resolution strategy. The conflict detection method is robust in real time, the complexity of the resolution strategy operation is low, and the payment distance is small during the conflict resolution process.

    Effect of fire extinguishing additives on wettability of wooden structure
    MENG Junqing, LIANG Yimin, CHANG Chenxi, LYU Yingpei
    2023, 33(5):  121-127.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.1157
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    In order to find water-based fire extinguishing agent additives suitable for fighting wood fires, a cellulose-additive adsorption system under water environment was constructed by molecular simulation method to study the wetting mechanism of additives on the cellulose surface. Three fire extinguishing additives, amphoteric hydrocarbon surfactant BS-12, ionic fluorocarbon surfactant Capstone1157, and nonionic hydrocarbon surfactant AEO9, were intervened in the cellulose wetting system, and the adsorption simulation of the cellulose-additive system on water molecules was realized at 298 and 498 K to explore the wetting mechanism and interfacial behavior. The simulation results show that, despite the different temperatures, the three additives involved in the cellulose wetting system significantly enhance the adsorption of water molecules, and the adsorption amount increases with the increase in the volume fraction of additives, and finally tends to be stable. During the wetting process, the electrostatic force in the system caused by the additive's own electrostatic potential is the main driving force of the adsorption behavior, and the vertical degree of its adsorption direction determines the strength of its adsorption capacity. The contact angle measurements are in high agreement with the simulated results of water molecule adsorption for the three additive systems, and BS-12 and Capstone1157 are more effective than AEO9 in enhancing the wettability of cellulose.

    Construction of a database of standardized coal mine building regulation based on accident causation
    LIU Quanlong, ZHANG Xiaolin, ZHANG Yueqian, QIU Zunxiang
    2023, 33(5):  128-133.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.1865
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    In order to effectively check the compliance of coal mine building design, this paper used word similarity calculation (Word2Vec) model and database technology to organize and standardize a large number of regulations data from the perspective of accident causation. Firstly, the Word2Vec model was used to train word vectors on 225 accident reports from 2009 to 2021 caused by non-compliance of coal mine building design, so as to find out the risk elements of coal mine building design which were most associated with the occurrence of various accidents. Then, the relevant existing coal mine construction regulations were collected and screened from the acquired building design risk factors, a standardized expression framework was constructed for the regulations by analyzing specific regulations provisions. Finally, the regulations were organized into a structured query language (SQL) database to build a standardized regulation database. Using the Word2Vec model, the construction risk elements associated with the occurrence of accidents in accident analysis reports can be uncovered based on the deep-level characteristics of words. The construction risk elements can be used as the central word for the initial search and filtering of specification information, thus building the standardized library of coal mine construction regulations, which breaks the barriers between regulations and standards.

    Research on impact of traffic flow in rainy environments
    ZHANG Jun, JIANG Fan, PENG Demeng, KOU Ziqing
    2023, 33(5):  134-143.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.0400
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    In order to reduce the highway accident rate in rainy days and improve the highway traffic safety management level in harsh environment, firstly, this paper used the NaSch model (Nagel-Schreckberg) of cellular automata (CA) to build a traffic simulation environment and studied the speed limit strategy of freeway in rainy days. Secondly, by analyzing the influencing factors of traffic flow in rainy days, the NaSch model considering the drivers' psychological characteristics in rainy days was constructed, and then the road traffic flow model in rainy days was established. Finally, under four different rainfall intensities, the average density, average vehicle spacing and the cumulative queue length were selected as the evaluation indexes of road traffic running level. The changing trend of road traffic running level under different rainfall intensities was studied through simulation experiments, and then the speed limit strategy under different rainfall intensities was determined. The results show that the greater the rainfall intensity, the faster the road adaptability declines and the faster the deterioration of traffic conditions. With the decrease of rainfall intensity, the adaptability of roads to high speed limit is significantly improved, but the adaptability to low speed limit is always in a low state. At the high rainfall intensity level, the road conditions can be divided into suitable speed limit zone and low speed limit zone according to the speed limit value, while at the medium and low rainfall intensity level, the road conditions can be divided into high speed limit zone, suitable speed limit zone and low speed limit zone.

    Public safety
    High-risk area identification method of expressway based on risk field
    ZHANG Chi, WANG Bo, CHEN Xingguang, REN Shipeng, ZHAI Yiyang
    2023, 33(5):  144-151.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.1068
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    In order to effectively identify high risk areas of expressways, firstly, the potential field theory was introduced on the basis of theoretical exposition and quantitative interpretation of driving risk evolution mechanism, and the basic concept and properties of road static risk field were proposed. Then, on the basis of analyzing the influence of road factors on traffic safety, the static risk field calculation model of structures, alignments, roadsides and other factors in the road domain was constructed, and the method of identifying high risk areas of expressways was proposed. At the same time, based on the statistical data of traffic accidents, the risk quantity parameters of the static risk field calculation model were calibrated. Finally, based on the actual project, the regional risk level prediction and effectiveness verification were carried out. The results show that among the 33 areas of the study section, 26 of the screening results are the same as the actual risk level, only 7 of the results are inconsistent, and the number of areas within one level of risk level difference is 30. The accuracy of the risk level prediction results is 78.79%, and the accuracy of the actual risk level results is 90.91%. The static risk field can be effectively applied to the identification of high-risk areas, and the research is helpful to the highway safety management in the design and operation stages.

    Research on causes of urban rail delay risk based on HFACS model
    LI Lei, LI Jiang'e, REN Yufei, TANG Xiaoxiao
    2023, 33(5):  152-157.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.0503
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    In order to explore the causes of UR train delays and find out the key factors causing delays, firstly, an HFACS-UR model based on HFACS method was proposed for analyzing UR train delay. Secondly, the causes analysis of UR trains delay was carried out from four aspects: unsafe acts, preconditions for unsafe acts, unsafe supervision and organizational influences. Pearson correlation coefficient method was used to analyze the correlation between factors. Finally, prevention suggestions for UR train delays were proposed. The results show that unsafe behaviors focus on skill errors and decision-making errors. The premise of unsafe behavior is mainly manifested in the lack of personal skills and improper reporting and communication. Unsafety supervision is mainly reflected in inadequate supervision and improper operation plan. The organizational impact involves the organizational process and resource management, which is reflected in the imperfect standard regulations, emergency procedures and personnel training.

    Evaluation of urban emergency management capabilities from perspective of safe development
    CHENG Fangming, WANG Chenchen, YUAN Xiaofang
    2023, 33(5):  158-167.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.2014
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    To reasonably and effectively evaluate urban emergency management capability and promote the construction of modern cities, an urban emergency management capacity evaluation system was constructed from six aspects: urban safety source governance capabilities, urban safety risk prevention and control capabilities, urban safety supervision and management capabilities, urban safety assurance capabilities, urban safety emergency rescue capabilities, and urban safety emergency recovery capabilities. The G1 method combined with the entropy weight method was used to calculate the combined weight to effectively reduce the subjective factors of weight calculation. The cloud model and the material-element extensibility model were used to construct a comprehensive evaluation model to strengthen the scientificity and accuracy of the evaluation work. Then a city was taken as an example to conduct application research to verify the scientificity and effectiveness of the model. The results show that the index system can comprehensively and accurately reflect the current situation of urban emergency management capacity, and the comprehensive evaluation model can accurately and scientifically evaluate urban emergency management capacity, which can provide decision-making basis for government emergency management.

    Prediction of evacuation time and safety evaluation for passengers ascending stairs in subway stations
    YANG Xiaoxia, JIANG Hailong, LI Yongxing, PAN Fuquan, YANG Jinshun
    2023, 33(5):  168-173.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.1263
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    Stairs are the bottleneck areas in the process of passenger evacuation in the subway station. The safety assessment of passengers passing through the stairs helps to formulate the evacuation plan in advance. Firstly, aiming at the difficulty of collecting the evacuation data of passengers ascending the stairs, MassMotion simulation software was adopted to build a stair scene to simulate the evacuation behavior of passengers ascending the stairs, and the basic data of evacuation time were obtained. Then, the random forest model was trained and tested with basic data to predict the evacuation time of passengers ascending the stairs. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation model of evacuation safety was established, and the evacuation safety level of passengers ascending the stairs in the subway station was evaluated with evacuation time, passenger density and evacuation panic as indicators. The research results indicate that mean absolute error(MAE) of the prediction results of the random forest model used in this paper is 3.45 s, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 3.8%. Compared with back propagation neural network (BPNN) model and support vector regression (SVR) model, the prediction accuracy is higher. The comprehensive evaluation model of evacuation safety is used to evaluate the safety of the stairs in a subway station in Qingdao, and the evaluation value of evacuation safety in the early peak period is medium.

    Technology and engineering of disaster prevention and mitigation
    Regional resilience evaluation methods and influencing factors from perspective of natural disasters
    LIU Qiyuan, LIU Jincheng
    2023, 33(5):  174-181.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.1892
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    In order to evaluate regional resilience and influencing factors of different regions facing the impact of natural disasters, regional resilience was comprehensively reflected by the vulnerability and adaptability of the region in the impact of natural disasters, and a framework was constructed to understand and quantify regional resilience. The SBM-DEA method was applied to measure regional resilience levels of 27 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020, and the spatial effects of social, economic, environmental and other multidimensional influencing factors on regional resilience were examined in conjunction with the spatial Durbin model. The results show that: the regional resilience level in China from the perspective of natural disasters shows an overall pattern of low in the north and high in the south, with large differences between regions and relatively small differences in years. There is a trend of gradual expansion of the magnitude and frequency of changes and the regional resilience performance is not strongly correlated with the level of socio-economic development. In the spatial econometric regression, various influencing factors, such as education level, medical resources, social security, industrial structure and regional resilience, form a significant spatial effect relationship with regional resilience.

    Emergency technology and management
    Application of blockchain technology in emergency management: hotspots, challenges and prospects
    FAN Zhongqi, DAI Lin
    2023, 33(5):  182-190.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.1377
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    To effectively clarify the research status of blockchain technology in the field of emergency management, by applying the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses review method, a SLR identified 58 topic-related studies from the Web of Science and China National Knowledge Internet journal database. This paper summarized the challenges faced by the application of blockchain technology in emergency management and suggestions for application of blockchain in emergency management were proposed, including perfecting policies and regulations on application of blockchain, fueling development of key blockchain technology, strengthening construction of professional talent team and enhancing coordination of blockchain and other technologies, etc. The results show that the application of blockchain in emergency management is in its early booming stage of development. Based on these 58 studies, three main themes were developed: data management (40.3%), efficiency improvement (40.3%) and concept development (19.4%). These 3 themes can be further subdivided into 8 sub-themes. It presents the need for improving technical functionality, efficient management of emergency data and data security, integrity and data sharing efficiency.

    Game decision model of emergency reserve management of flood control materials
    WANG Wei, SONG Yue, CHEN Zhisong, HUANG Li, SHI Yuxin
    2023, 33(5):  191-198.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.2184
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    In order to improve the use efficiency of government funds for flood control emergency supplies, combined with the actual flow of flood control supplies reserve and transportation, this paper studies the government-enterprise joint reserve of flood control supplies model of outsourcing or autonomy. Under the condition that the total government and enterprise reserves were fixed, the one-time government subsidy and the proportion of the contracted enterprise's material reserve were taken as decision variables. Respectively, considering the whole supply chain profit optimal, the optimal government cost and supply chain coordination as three objectives, the three flood control and emergency supplies reserves based on option contract models were designed. By deducing the optimal material reserve ratio and the corresponding one-time government subsidy amount under the conditions of different parameters of each model, taking Jiangsu Province as an example, three kinds of flood control materials, namely wood cube, woven bag and block stone, were selected for empirical analysis. The results show that the supply chain coordination model can improve the overall profit of the supply chain effectively, and ensure the optimal government reserve cost and the optimal profit of the contract enterprise to a certain extent. The production cost of entrusted enterprises to reserve materials and the holding cost of government reserve materials have a great impact on the proportion of material reserves.

    Bibliometric research and visualization analysis of urban community emergency management
    LU Jifeng, LI Fang, YANG Yang
    2023, 33(5):  199-205.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.2203
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    In order to improve the theoretical and practical level of community emergency management, CiteSpace software was used to collect 235 journal papers indexed in the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) database. A knowledge graph of co-occurrence, keyword clustering, keyword frequency, and timeline visualization between authors and research institutions was drawn. The research strength, focus, hotspots, path evolution, and frontiers of urban community emergency management were specifically analyzed. The results indicate that previous research has mainly focused on three main themes: urban community emergency management issues and challenges, emergency management system mechanisms, and emergency management methods. It has gone through four stages: "initial development and research exploration" (2004-2007), "test baptism and research improvement" (2008-2012), "connotation improvement and research deepening" (2013-2017), and "emergency modernization and research systematization" (2018-). The concept of modern emergency management, the construction of emergency management models, emergency culture and legalization, and the research on the subject, object, and content of emergency management are receiving attention from the academic community. Multi-disciplinary intersection, multi-perspective integration, and multi-theoretical application have become new research trends. The advancement of emergency management, technological innovation and intelligent empowerment, legalization and standardization, and the improvement of residents' emergency capacity and quality will become new focuses of attention.

    Occupational health
    Flight crew fatigue study for eastward and westward international flights
    LI Jingqiang, ZHOU Yanru, ZHANG Xining, FAN Tianchen, LIU Annan
    2023, 33(5):  206-212.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.1628
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    In order to reduce fatigue for international flight crews and establish the Fatigue Risk Management System (FRMS), multi-modal individual alertness and fatigue evaluation were used to study the fatigue level of international flight crews. The sleep conditions of international flight crews in the east-west direction were collected by sleep monition bracelets. The Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS), Samn-Perelli Fatigue Scale (SP) and Continuous Performance Test (CPT) were used to measure crew alertness in different flight phases. Also, the consistency of the biomathematical fatigue prediction model System for Aircrew Fatigue Evaluation (SAFE) and the actual operating results were compared and verified. The study shows that the subjective fatigue of the crews flying from west to east is higher than that of the crews flying from east to west, and their sleep duration is shorter and more fragmented. The alertness of the crew decreases after the take-off mission, and the SAFE fatigue prediction results have a significant correlation with data from China's operating environment.

    Current situation, challenges and prospects of occupational injury protection system in China
    XU Surui, LIANG Fanjie
    2023, 33(5):  213-220.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.2166
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    In order to alleviate the problem of "no insurance to rely on, or it is difficult to rely on insurance" for workers in the new employment form, this paper studied the current situation, challenges and prospects of China's occupational injury protection system under the background of "three new" economy. Firstly, the present situation of China's occupational injury protection system was analyzed from two aspects: system orientation and definition of insured objects and system sorting. On this basis, the development and challenges of China's occupational injury protection system in four directions of levels, structure, legislation and coordination were summarized. Then the experience of occupational injury protection at home and abroad was condensed, and the three important stages of local pilot development of occupational injury protection system in China were divided. Finally, the prospect of an occupational injury protection system based on "three new" economy was proposed. The results show that: China's occupational injury protection system is orientated as a social insurance, and the insured objects should cover new occupational groups that do not have labor relations and do not fully meet the established labor relations, and traditional occupational groups that show new employment patterns. The scope of protection and policy framework still need to be continuously improved during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.

    Influencing mechanism of risk propensity on hazard perception of new generation of construction workers
    NI Guodong, FANG Yaqi, ZHANG Qi, DING Zhihua
    2023, 33(5):  221-229.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.2044
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    In order to explore the differences in hazard perception levels among the new generation of construction workers with different risk propensities and enhance the risk perception level of different risk propensity groups in a personalized manner, 39 pictures containing hazards in the workplace were selected carefully, hazard perception data from 45 subjects was tested and collected by fixed eye-tracking device, and their risk propensity data was collected by questionnaire. Then permutation test, the heat map and the scan path map were used to analyze and verify data. Finally, the influencing mechanism of risk propensity on hazard perception of the new generation of construction workers was clarified. The results show that there are significant differences in the hazard perception level of the new generation of construction workers with different risk propensity. Compared with the high-risk propensity group, the low-risk propensity group exhibits fewer perceived quantity of hazards, shorter first fixation time, longer dwell percentage and more run counts. Although the number of hazards perceived by the new generation of construction workers with low-risk propensity is lower, they pay more attention to the identified hazards than those with high-risk propensity.

    Study on improved HSDA model for thermal safety of outdoor workers in high temperature weather
    ZHENG Guozhong, YUE Xuhui, WEI Changqing
    2023, 33(5):  230-235.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.05.1418
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    In order to provide a more accurate thermal safety prediction for outdoor workers in high temperature weather, PHS model was compared with HSDA model, and the HSDA model was selected for modification. Then the average radiation temperature was selected as the correction object. The error function between the measurement and predicted values was used to derive the correction coefficient and obtain the modified HSDA model. Finally, the modified model was used to predict outdoor workers' safety time and water loss under high temperature weather. The results indicate that the core temperature prediction accuracy of HSDA model is higher than that of the PHS model in the outdoor high temperature environment. The correction factor of the average radiation temperature is determined to be 0.614, and the prediction accuracy of HSDA model can be improved by about 58.5% after modification. With the increase of the environmental parameters, the safety time of outdoor workers gradually decreases and is generally lower than 1 h. The water loss gradually increases and even exceeds 7.5% of the standard body weight (4 462.5 g/h).