Analysis of complex network of causes of water disasters in coal mines

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.04.1053

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to effectively improve the comprehensive prevention and control ability of coal mine water disaster accidents, the complex network and robustness analysis method were used to explore the key causes of accidents. According to the report of 111 typical coal mine water disaster cases in China in the past 40 years, an unweighted directed network of coal mine water disaster was constructed. The weights of each cause, such as degree, clustering coefficient and betweenness centrality at different scales of the network were calculated, and the key causes were excavated. The damage of intentional attack to the cause network under three different strategies was evaluated, and the optimal solution of systematic prevention and control was sought. The results show that the coal mine water disaster cause network has the characteristics of small world, and the causes are closely related. The attack ranked by degree has the greatest damage to the model. The corresponding key causes include organizing workers to carry out risky operations, failing to implement the management responsibility of water prevention and control technology, failing to carry out water exploration and drainage work as required, illegal organization of production operations, imperfect safety management institutions, inadequate hidden danger investigation, loopholes in coal mine safety supervision and supervision, and failure of higher-level units to perform safety management responsibilities.

Key words: coal mine water hazard accidents, causal networks, complex networks, clustering coefficient, avoidance measures

CLC Number:

X928.03事故预防与预测

MA Lianjing, XIAO Haibo, ZHAO Baofeng, JIANG Song, LIU Di, WANG Song. Analysis of complex network of causes of water disasters in coal mines[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(4): 35-42.

Figures/Tables 8

Table 1

Overview of accident causes and entry number

分类	编号	比例/%	致因条目	编号	比例/%	致因条目
人为过失	A₁	1.47	作业人员疲劳作业	A₆	73.53	未按照要求开展探放水工作
	A₂	36.76	作业人员缺乏安全意识	A₇	38.24	未查明水文地质条件
	A₃	7.35	作业人员职业技能水平不足	A₈	19.12	应急处置不当
	A₄	11.76	作业人员违规作业	A₉	4.41	探放水设备使用不当
	A₅	14.71	作业人员对突水征兆判识不足	A₁₀	14.71	采用非专用钻机探放水
管理不当	B₁	94.12	安全技术措施不合格	B₁₆	4.41	未严格执行在矿值守规定
	B₂	77.94	隐患排查工作不到位	B₁₇	25.00	未落实企业主体责任
	B₃	42.65	未落实防治水技术管理责任	B₁₈	27.94	安全管理机构不健全
	B₄	26.47	未按要求配备水文地质专业技术人员	B₁₉	13.24	管理人员未取得相关资质
	B₅	5.88	防治水工作滞后	B₂₀	4.41	盲目划定开采区域
	B₆	23.53	停产撤人措施落实不到位、不及时	B₂₁	17.65	蓄意超深越界开采
	B₇	38.24	组织工人进行冒险作业	B₂₂	2.94	三线管理设置不合理
	B₈	35.29	违法违规组织生产作业	B₂₃	17.65	防隔水煤(岩)柱留设宽度不符合要求
	B₉	20.59	安全隐患未整改到位	B₂₄	2.94	应急物资不足
	B₁₀	14.71	技术服务单位履职不到位	B₂₅	5.88	煤矿6大系统建设不完全
	B₁₁	63.24	上级单位未履行安全管理职责	B₂₆	14.71	外包承包关系混乱
	B₁₂	33.82	煤矿安全监管监察工作存在漏洞	B₂₇	2.94	无应急预案、应急预案不演练
	B₁₃	42.65	安全培训教育不到位	B₂₈	13.24	不按设计施工
	B₁₄	16.18	作业人员配置不合理	B₂₉	2.94	勘探精度不满足要求
	B₁₅	8.82	采煤方法设计不合理	B₃₀	7.35	勘探结果与实际情况不符
设备因素	C₁	7.35	排水系统不满足要求	C₂	1.47	排水设备未正常有效运行
自然因素	D₁	19.12	水文地质条件复杂	D₆	4.41	顶板存在富水含水层
	D₂	4.41	采掘影响范围内存在含(导) 水断层或陷落柱	D₇	4.41	存在离层水害威胁
	D₃	55.88	采掘影响范围内采空区积水情况不清	D₈	1.47	采掘影响范围内存在底板高承压含水层
	D₄	1.47	采掘影响范围内存在地质异常体	D₉	1.47	存在溃水溃砂威胁
	D₅	1.47	浅埋深或急倾斜煤层开采	—	—	—
环境因素	E₁	4.41	汛期大量降水	E₂	1.47	采掘影响范围内出现地表水体

Table 1

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Table 2

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高风险致因	规避措施
组织工人进行冒险作业B₇	组织学习水害征兆及应急处置办法,制定应急预案,对违章指挥加强惩处
未落实防治水技术管理责任B₃	核实技术人员资质、能力,组织技能测试、实操考核,全面评估专业技能, 建立健全安全责任追溯制度,组建快速响应团队收集反馈井下技术问题
未按照要求开展探放水工作A₆	严格遵守《煤矿防治水细则》,加强工作面监管,聘请专业探放水人员, 加强探放水工作章程的教育普及工作
违法违规组织生产作业B₈	对存在违法违规行为、存在重大安全隐患仍组织生产的严肃问责、追责
安全管理机构不健全B₁₈	健全责权一致的企业安全管理机构,推行注册安全工程师制度,实行安全监察专员委派制
隐患排查工作不到位B₂	定期开展水害隐患排查,水文地质条件复杂、极复杂的矿井至少每月开展1次;其他矿井至少每季度开展1次
煤矿安全监管监察工作存在漏洞B₁₂	加强内部执法案宗审核、分析、评比及执法过程的监督检查, 健全完善相关执法工作考核机制,推进执法量化考核
上级单位未履行安全管理职责B₁₁	开展多部门联合检查机制,相互监督,落实责任机制