Intelligent deductive for disaster evolution process under multi-disasters coupling

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.0370

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to effectively predict disasters and evaluate the effectiveness of intervention measures, a multi-disaster coupling evolution intelligent deduction method was proposed. The disaster process, multi-disaster coupling, as well as the advantages and difficulties of evolutionary intelligent deduction, were discussed. The disaster evolution process was described, and an intelligent deduction method was established. Taking the mining process of an open-pit mine as an example, the proposed method was applied for analysis, and its effectiveness was verified. The results show that the multi-disaster coupling process is complex and changeable, with characteristics such as uncertainty, network structure effect and spatio-temporal distribution difference. The system fault evolution theory can provide support for the multi-disaster coupling evolution intelligent deduction from the perspectives of conceptual description, topological structure and mathematical analysis. The evolutionary intelligent deduction method is established, and its steps and mathematical model are provided. This method can qualitatively and quantitatively deduce the multi-disaster coupling evolution process, discover hidden disaster processes and generate emergent knowledge.

Key words: multi-disaster coupling, evolution process, network structure, intelligent inference, system fault evolution theory

CLC Number:

X913安全系统学

LI Shasha, CUI Tiejun, ZHANG Jing. Intelligent deductive for disaster evolution process under multi-disasters coupling[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026, 36(1): 227-233.

Figures/Tables 4

References 11

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