Risk zoo (VI): metaphorical traceability, evolution process and research outlook of black swans

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.06.0091

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to prevent the risk of uncertainty and extreme impact brought by the black swan, the origin, transmutation and prospect of the black swan were studied in depth under the perspective of metaphor theory. Firstly, the conceptual integration theory was adopted to analyze the cognitive construction mechanism of the black swan risk metaphor from the aspects of historical flow and development trend, summarize the overall development trend of the black swan, and on the basis of this, divide the black swan into three important transmutation stages of founding, exploring development, and innovating and perfecting, so as to put forward the research dilemma and future outlook of the black swan under the background of digital intelligence empowerment. The results show that the risk metaphor meaning of black swan is a risk event with rarity, episodic, unexpected and unpredictable, and extremely negative impact; the development of the black swan risk metaphor will enter the stage of theoretical differentiation of quantitative fluctuation and change, and the direction of the research should be from generalized application to precise application, from single risk to composite risk, and from silo research to group research.

Key words: risk zoo, black swan, risk metaphors, evolution process, conceptual integration, uncertainty

CLC Number:

X913安全系统学

TONG Ruipeng, LIANG Fanjie, MENG Ziyao, WANG Yiyan. Risk zoo (VI): metaphorical traceability, evolution process and research outlook of black swans[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(6): 10-19.

Figures/Tables 3

References 70

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