Abstract:

To effectively identify and assess different types of risk events in the risk zoo, and compare the difference of different risk metaphor events, based on theory of complex system thinking and vulnerability, risk metaphor events were identified and analyzed from 6 dimensions of risk certainty, universality, periodicity, stability, tolerance and reversibility. An assessment model of risk metaphor events was constructed based on the theory of the public safety triangle. The results show that through complex system thinking, we summarize and classify the general characteristics of risk metaphor events, and establish a multi-dimensional quantitative assessment model of risk metaphor events, which provides the application ideas and method logic for the control of risk metaphor events and ensure the scientific and reasonable establishment of risk metaphor events. Finally, the 4P (Prohibit, Suspend, Postpone, Prevent) strategy of risk prevention is proposed for the different cognitive characteristics of risk metaphor events, which provides a reference for organizations to carry out risk event control.

Key words: risk zoo, complex system, vulnerability, risk-metaphor events, risk assessment