Abstract:

To eliminate the impact of complexity and uncertainty of safety risks in mountainous scenic areas on operational safety, a risk assessment method for mountainous scenic areas was proposed. Firstly, risk factors in mountainous scenic areas were identified to develop a risk assessment index system including personnel, equipment and facilities, environment, and management. Then, FBN and AHP models were proposed to evaluate risk probabilities and losses. Moreover, an improved ALARP criterion was used to analyze the comprehensive safety risk of mountainous scenic areas. Finally, the performance and effectiveness of the risk assessment method were validated against safety risk assessment in mountainous scenic areas in Beijing. The results indicated that the BN-based risk assessment method for mountainous scenic areas effectively addressed the issue of complex risk factors and interdependent relationships between each level. The combination of BN and triangular fuzzy number can make full use of expert experience and avoid the subjectivity of expert opinions to a certain extent. The key risk factors in mountainous scenic areas were inadequate detection of dangerous amusement facilities, insufficient configuration or arrangement of forest fire prevention facilities, inadequate protective fencing for hazardous amusement projects, and rockfalls and landslides.

Key words: mountainous scenic areas, safety risk assessment, index system, fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP)