China Safety Science Journal ›› 2019, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (8): 164-171.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.08.026

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Metro structural safety and reliability analysis based on Copula dependency model

LIU Wen1, LIU Wenli1, ZHAI Shihong2   

  1. 1 School of Civil Engineering & Mechanics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430074, China;
    2 Second Harbor Engineering of China Communications Construction Limited Liability Company, Wuhan Hubei 430040, China
  • Received:2019-04-25 Revised:2019-06-24 Published:2020-10-21

Abstract: In order to improve metro operation safety, Copula dependency modeling theory is used to study influences of adjacent environmental changes under time-varying effects on metro structural safety. Firstly, structural reliability indicators were adopted to describe its safety during operation. Then based on Copula theory, the correlation between parameters of monitoring indexes during metro operation was described and binary discrete time-varying dependence model of convergence deformation (CD) and differential settlement (DS) was constructed. Finally, the model's accurancy was verified with a section of Wuhan Metro Line 2 as a project backgrround. The results show that Weibull distribution and Frank Copula are the optimal edge distribution function and Copula function respectively while Gaussian Copula is not optimal since traditional Gaussian Copula is not accurate in describing parameters' correlation. Copula model in this study can sensitively capture structure safety changes under time effect by analyzing CD and DS values, thus helping formulate corresponding special operation risk control scheme based on analysis results.

Key words: operational metro, Copula function, time-varying effect, dependency modeling, reliability analysis

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