Simulation modeling analysis of human error probability based on system dynamics

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.03.015

Abstract

Abstract: In order to deeply study the changes in HEP of petrochemical employees in the face of accidents, based on SD theory and method, a causal map and a system map were drawn for enterprise employees HEP under accidents. Dynamic simulations were performed by using Vensim software to quantitatively analyze the dynamic evolution process of the influence of various factors on corporate employees' HEP. The results show that the change in HEP curve is divided into two different stages with 35 h as the cut-off point, that the main influencing factors before and after the cut-off point are risk cognition and personal safety commitment, and that the trend in the evolution of HEP can be changed by controlling the changes in different HEP influencing factors.

Key words: accident, system dynamics(SD), human error probability(HEP), human reliability analysis(HRA), simulation

CLC Number:

X937

ZHANG Ya, ZHANG Mingguang, QIAN Chengjiang, ZHAO Yao. Simulation modeling analysis of human error probability based on system dynamics[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(3): 89-94.

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