Risk measurement method of flight operational quality based on skewed distribution

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.10.025

China Safety Science Journal ›› 2019, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (10): 160-166.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.10.025

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Risk measurement method of flight operational quality based on skewed distribution

ZHAO Xinbin^1,2,3, WANG Yan⁴

1 Aviation Safety Institute, China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology, Beijing 100028, China;
2 Engineering and Technical Research Center of Civil Aviation Safety Analysis and Prevention of Beijing, Beijing 100028, China;
3 School of Statistics, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China;
4 Research Department, CFFEX Institute for Financial Derivatives, Beijing 100033, China

Received:2019-07-16 Revised:2019-09-06 Online:2019-10-28 Published:2020-10-27

Abstract

Abstract: In order to prevent and control flight risks, construction of safety risk matrix and probability theory are used to study quantitative analysis method of flight operational quality risks. Firstly, probability and severity of events were obtained based on probability density function of normal distribution after normalizing skewed data. Then, a risk measurement method for flight operational quality was put forward based on the idea that “risk is a product of probability and severity”. Finally, flight risks were measured from four different perspectives: light, medium, heavy and comprehensive, and QAR data were used to analyze and verify the method. The research shows that the proposed method can integrate probability and severity of events and measure four types of flight risks. Results obtained from it can be used to guide differential management of risks.

Key words: aviation safety, skewed distribution, flight operational quality assurance (FOQA), risk measurement, quick access recorder (QAR) data

CLC Number:

X949

ZHAO Xinbin, WANG Yan. Risk measurement method of flight operational quality based on skewed distribution[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(10): 160-166.

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Risk measurement method of flight operational quality based on skewed distribution

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