Flight risk assessment method of transport aviation

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.018

Abstract

Abstract: In order to study flight risks of transport aviation in China, an evaluation method of it is proposed based on survey reports of unsafe events and QAR data. Firstly, risks were divided into dominant risk and recessive risk according to severity of event consequences, and direct risk and contingent risk according to their ten-year average contribution degree so as to obtain flight risk classification of transport aviation. Then, a risk assessment index system and a model were developed. Finally, their rationality was verified with data of actual unsafe events and QAR over-limit events of civil transport aviation of China in 2017. The results show that the evaluation is consistent with safety risk analysis conclusions of 2017 CAAC aviation safety report.

Key words: transport aviation, risk assessment, quick access recorder (QAR) data, average risk contribution degree, over-limit events

CLC Number:

X949
V351

WANG Jianhui, DENG Wei, XIA Zhenghong, WAN Jian. Flight risk assessment method of transport aviation[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(12): 110-116.

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