China Safety Science Journal

Study on influence of leadership non-contingency punishment on miners' unsafe behavior

LI Naiwen, ZHANG Wenwen, NIU Lixia

2019, 29(12): 1-6. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.001

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In order to explore the mechanism of negative emotions and mind wandering working on leadership non-contingent punishments and unsafe behaviors, a hypothetical model of relationships among them is established on the basis of literature research. 427 miners were randomly selected for survey using leadership non-contingency punishment scale, negative emotion scale, mind wandering scale and unsafe behavior scale, and verification was conducted for hypothetical model by using correlation analysis and mediation effect test. The results show that non-contingency punishment can not only directly influence unsafe behaviors, but also indirectly affect them through mediating effects of negative emotions or mind wandering and chain mediating effects of them. Effective intervention in leaders' non-contingency punishments, negative emotions and mind wandering can reduce frequency of unsafe behaviors as well as human errors.

Simulation study on workload evaluation of civil aviation maintenance personnel

SUN Ruishan, ZHANG Yuting, LIU Zhen, YAN Xingchen, HAN Shaohua

2019, 29(12): 7-12. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.002

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In order to accurately evaluate and predict workload of maintenance personnel, considering their ergonomic factors, such as force, posture and energy consumption, a workload evaluation model was established with the ratio of required time and resource to available time and resource as main evaluation value while energy consumption rate and ergonomic load as correction factors. Then, Simens JACK 8.4 simulation software (JACK for short) was used to obtain required time and correction factors for the model, and an evaluation method based on this model and JACK was proposed. Finally, it was adopted to simulate and evaluate workload of A320 main wheel disassembly operation. The results show that this method can make up for deficiencies of existing workload evaluation methods of maintenance personnel, including their lack of practice, poor operability, strong subjectivity, and inaccurate prediction. It can easily and effectively evaluate and predict maintenance personnel's workload.

Spatial-temporal exposure risk during cross operation in dam construction

ZHENG Xiazhong, ZHOU Jiali, CHEN Shu

2019, 29(12): 13-20. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.003

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In order to study spatial-temporal exposure risks during cross operation in dam construction, firstly, disaster-causing situations of risk exposure were analyzed and dam construction processes were decomposed. Then, impact space of damage-energy processes and work space of hazard-affected processes were defined and a quantification model was proposed based on time distribution characteristics during cross operation and real-time location information of construction processes. Finally, with a hydropower station in southwest China as an example, simulation of construction processes in dam pouring was performed to determine duration and frequency of spatial-temporal exposure. The results show that total spatial-temporal exposure duration is 1 905 s while exposure frequency is 16.85%, and risks are mainly from damage-energy processes, including horizontal deceleration and downward transportation with heavy-load, upward and horizontal acceleration transportation with no-load.

Simulation study on spreading of crisis behavior of college students in small world networks

SHI Juan, ZHENG Peng, XU Lingfeng, CHANG Dingyi

2019, 29(12): 21-27. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.004

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In order to prevent and control the spread of college students' crisis behaviors and reduce accidents on campus, the network model for crisis behavior spreading of college students was proposed based on the small world network model. It also analyzed the impact of network structure, influence of character, relationship between disseminators and recipients, and individual susceptibility on the spread of crisis behaviors and simulated the risk level of crisis behaviors spreading in the network. The results show that the stronger the small-world effect is, the faster the spread of crisis behavior will be, that the small-scale network has a faster propagation in the early stage, but the propagation tends to be stable in the later stage, that the spread of large-scale network behavior has the characteristic of long transmission time and high risk level, and that the increase of network subject' influence, susceptibility and intimacy degree can improve the risk level of crisis behavior of the whole group.

Comprehensive stability evaluation of tailing dam based on factor space

LI Hui, YI Fu, ZHANG Jia

2019, 29(12): 28-34. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.005

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Considering that stability of tailing dam is affected by many factors which contain unascertained information, a comprehensive stability evaluation model is proposed based on factor space. Firstly, factor space for comprehensive evaluation was constructed, and unascertained mathematical theory was introduced to establish a factor space-unascertained measurement model. Then, variable combined weights were assigned to influencing factors, and dimensionality reduction of factor space was accomplished through factor synthesis. Finally, with a tailing dam as an example, its stability was evaluated by using confidence criterion, and feasibility and applicability of proposed model were verified. The research shows that evaluation results of this model are consistent with that of field survey, and moreover risk degree ranking of influencing factors is accomplished, which can not only improve evaluation accuracy, but also provide reference for scientific stability evaluation of tailing dam.

Research on accident process based on cumulative effect

CHENG Lianhua, ZHENG Qing, GUO Huimin, YAN Jin, ZHOU Ruixue

2019, 29(12): 35-39. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.006

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In order to study accumulation effects of errors during accident incubation and development process, a research idea of cumulative effects is introduced. Firstly, cumulative characteristics of errors were analyzed with methods of theory analysis and case study to explore relationship between cumulative effects of errors and occurrence of accidents. Then based on these effects, accident process was divided into six stages, and an accident causation model on the basis of fault accumulation effects was constructed to clarify their cumulative characteristics at each stage. Finally, this model was applied to a case study to verify its effectiveness and feasibility in analysis of specific accidents. The research shows that accidents are caused by cumulative errors and triggered by triggering events in socio-technical systems of enterprises and safety culture development proves to be a fundamental measure for accident prevention.

Study on driving style clustering based on K-means and Gaussian mixture model

LIU Tong, FU Rui, ZHANG Mingfang, TIAN Shun

2019, 29(12): 40-45. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.007

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In order to study drivers' car-following characteristics and explore an effective method to classify driving styles, 50 participants were recruited to carry out a real road driving test. A GMM with results of K-means clustering was established based on two-dimensional variables: average car-following time gap and average braking time gap. And then results of different types of drivers were analyzed. The research shows that clustering result is better with three categories (aggressive drivers, steady drivers, and conservative drivers) with an average contour value of 0.45. It is found that aggressive drivers tend to choose a smaller car-following time gap or braking time gap while conservative drivers usually take a larger value, and a much softer clustering result with a high separability between samples would be achieved.

TG-FTIR study on coal spontaneous combustion mechanism

ZHU Jianfang , SHEN Jiahui , SONG Fumei, DENG Huidong

2019, 29(12): 46-52. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.008

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In order to study change features of coal molecular structure at occurrence and during development of its spontaneous combustion, with No. 15 coal in Fusheng Mine as an example, the spontaneous combustion mechanism of coal samples with medium sulfur content was analyzed. Firstly, TG-FTIR experiment was conducted to obtain characteristic temperature at different thermal weight loss stages and molecular structure and decomposition temperature of coals that reacted during corresponding stages. Then, analysis was made on distribution characteristics of functional groups of raw coal samples and variation in content of functional groups along with temperature change, and composition and content of functional groups of five coal molecular structures were obtained. The results show that critical reaction temperature range of Fusheng coal samples is 130-170 ℃ during low-temperature oxidation, and presence of sulfur in coal samples and oxidation of C-H and C-O / C-O-C bonds improve chemical activity of coal molecular structure, thus causing spontaneous combustion.

Experimental study on burning characteristics of spilled crude oil pool fires on water surface

HUI Wenying, NIU Jianzhuang, HE Xu, YANG Hanbing

2019, 29(12): 53-58. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.009

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In order to improve combustion efficiency and oil removal effect when using ISB combustion method to deal with oil spill on the sea surface, a series of small scale simulation experiments using light crude oil were carried out. Firstly, test device for pool fire on water surface was designed to simulate the in-site combustion process. Then the combustion process was studied by measuring the flame height, temperature and burning efficiency. Finally, the influence of pool diameter and initial fuel-layer thickness on flame height were discussed. The results show that the combustion of oil pool fire on water surface can be divided into four stages, that the heat wave propagation is the main cause of boiling over, and that combustion efficiency is positively correlated with oil layer thickness.

Analysis of gas fluctuation characteristics in a closed fire zone under atmospheric disturbance

DUAN Yulong, WANG Shuo, YANG Yanling, LI Yuanbing, WANG Wenhe, JIANG Xinsheng

2019, 29(12): 59-65. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.010

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In order to prevent gas explosion induced by closed fire zones, with large underground mines as research object, a gas pressure fluctuation model, an air leakage model and a gas concentration prediction model were established according to gas emission amount and structural characteristics of mines. Then, variation law of gas concentration in inner areas due to atmospheric disturbance was studied under coupling influence of pressure difference, fire zone volume, wind resistance, gas emission amount and sealing timing. The results show that pressure difference between inside and outside of closed fire zones will change periodically due to atmospheric fluctuation, and gas concentration is determined by zone volume and gas emission amount. Among all factors, wind resistance is a vital one that affects fire zone's ability to withstand disturbance of atmospheric fluctuation, and an increase of it will shorten time for gas concentration to pass explosion limit while an reduction of zone volume can shorten explosion period.

Research on effect of NH₄H₂PO₄ on minimum ignition temperature of sucrose dust cloud

QIN Xiaoling, LI Xiaoquan

2019, 29(12): 66-71. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.011

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In order to explore the suppression effect of NH₄H₂PO₄ on the ignition and combustion of sucrose dust cloud, MIT and combustion process of NH₄H₂PO₄-sucrose mixed dust cloud were studied by Godbert-Greenwald furnace apparatus. The experimental results show that the MIT of sucrose dust cloud, which mass concentration of1 363.6, 1 818.2, 2 272.7 and 2 727.3 g/m³ respectively, is 787, 805, 880 and 745 ℃ when the mass fraction of NH₄H₂PO₄ reaches 50%, 55%, 60%, 40% respectively, that the sucrose dust cloud is completely inert with further increasing the mass fraction of NH₄H₂PO_4,that NH₄H₂PO₄ can effectively inhibit the ignition and combustion of sucrose dust cloud, and that the smaller the particle size of NH₄H₂PO₄ is, the more obvious the inhibition effect on the combustion flame of sucrose dust cloud will be.

Safety assessment of civil airborne system based on safety case

XIAO Nyu'e, YAN Fang, WANG Peng

2019, 29(12): 72-77. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.012

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In order to solve problems of existing safety assessment methods of civil airborne system, such as unclear logical reasoning and poor readability, firstly, an argument strategy for its safety assessment, based on safety case and GSN language, was studied and proposed through analyzing compliance verification approach to system safety requirements. Secondly, system safety argument was conducted separately from two aspects of safety goal satisfaction and safety requirements management. Finally, effectiveness of this safety case based assessment method was demonstrated with real cases. The results show that safety case based on GSN meets requirements of civil aircraft and system development, and given the clear logical relationship it builds between safety objectives and supporting evidences, it can be used for internal communication and airworthiness certification.

Impact analysis of human-organizational factors on pilotage risks at harbor

ZHANG Xinxin, HU Shenping, CHEN Yuan, WANG Mingshi

2019, 29(12): 78-84. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.013

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In order to study HOF in ship pilotage risk at harbor, HOFs were described according to actual conditions of pilotage operations, and HFACS was applied to formal safety assessment (FSA) to identify and assess risks in operations. Then a coupling model of HOFs for pilotage risks was established based on BN. Finally, risk causation factors of different piltos were analyzed based on database of a certain pilot station in years. The results show that almost all pilotage accidents are caused by unsafe pilotage behaviors, more than three-fifths of accidents are related to preconditions of unsafe pilotage behaviors, and about one-quarter of them are related to unsafe supervision.

Experimental study on factors affecting volume of CO₂ adsorbed by coal

ZHOU Xihua, NIU Yuping, BAI Gang, ZHANG Xiaowen

2019, 29(12): 85-90. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.014

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In order to study factors influencing the volume of CO₂ adsorbed by coal under multi-factor coupling effect, the HCA high-pressure capacity method was used to determine the amount of CO₂ adsorbed by coal samples under different conditions, and the Langmuir volume was calculated. The coupling effect of temperature, particle size and water content on CO₂ adsorption of coal was analyzed. The Box Behnken test was designed by Design Expert software to construct a Langmuir volume quadratic regression response surface model for coal adsorption of CO₂. The results show that the adsorption amount decreases with the increase of temperature and particle size, and decreases first and then stabilizes with the increase of water content, that the single factors of temperature, particle size, and water content all have significant effects, that the order of influence degree under multi-factor coupling effect is as follows: particle size and water content> temperature and particle size> temperature and water content, and that the interaction between temperature and particle size, particle size and water content is significant, while the interaction between temperature and water content is not significant.

Energy characteristics of coal or rock damage under thermo-mechanical coupling effect

LI Bobo, ZHANG Yao, REN Chonghong, YANG Kang, LI Jianhua, XU Jiang

2019, 29(12): 91-96. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.015

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In order to prevent coal dynamic disasters effectively, the triaxial compression test at different temperatures was carried out by using the triaxial servo-controlled seepage equipment for thermal-hydro- mechanical coupling of coal containing methane. Based on the theory of statistical damage mechanics, the overall damage evolution equation of coal under temperature load was put forward, and the mathematical expression of energy in the process of deformation and failure of coal was deducd. The method to determine the failure point of coal under stress and temperature coupling condition was put forward by introducing the dissipation energy coefficient ω. The experimental results show that the stage characteristics of deformation and failure process of coal are basically similar at different temperatures, that corresponding to different deformation and failure stages, the energy evolution characteristics of coal show periodic changes, that the distribution of total energy is basically not affected by temperature in the process of deformation and failure, and evolution laws of elastic energy ratio and dissipated energy ratio at different temperatures have a great similarity, and that the energy dissipation is the main cause of the internal structure damage of coal, and the overall damage variable of coal increases in a power function with the constant dissipation of energy.

Research on non-linear coupling characteristics of complex materiel accident based on WPD-MF

LI Chao

2019, 29(12): 97-102. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.016

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In order to better analyze non-linear coupling characteristics and causes of complex materiel accidents, MF detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) was improved by using WPD, and MF spectrum was analyzed with q^th moment partition function. Secondly, influence on multifractality of long-range correlation and fated-tail distribution of nonlinear time series was discussed through comparing MF spectrum of two kinds of transformed time series, random shuffling and phase randomization. Finally, with class A flight accidents data of United States air force (USAF) from 1946 to 1996 as an example, non-linear coupling characteristics of those accidents were analyzed. The results show that it has obvious multifractality with its distribution range of general hurst index and fractal spectrum width at [1.213 8, 3.431 4] and [0.293 7,1.702 5] respectively. The major cause for its multifractality is long range correlation and minor one is fated-tail distribution.

R-factor Fisher discrimination for rock burst hazard level prediction

BI Juan, LI Xijian, CHEN Liuyu

2019, 29(12): 103-109. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.017

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In order to improve prediction accuracy of hazard levels of rock burst with a small sample, an R-type factor analysis-Fisher discriminant prediction model is proposed. Firstly, with Yanshitai Coal Mine as an example, R-type factor analysis was used to process risk assessment index of rock burst, characteristic information of original index was extracted which were then replaced by a small number of main factors, and qualitative analysis of hazard levels was performed. Secondly, Fisher discriminant method was adopted to analyze R-type factor analysis results to determine distance between assessment set and different risk levels, and accuracy of judgment matrix was improved by rejudging training set. Finally, risk levels of rock burst were predicted according to judgment matrix. The results show that this model can weaken interaction between indicators and significantly improve predication accuracy for small samples.

Flight risk assessment method of transport aviation

WANG Jianhui, DENG Wei, XIA Zhenghong, WAN Jian

2019, 29(12): 110-116. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.018

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In order to study flight risks of transport aviation in China, an evaluation method of it is proposed based on survey reports of unsafe events and QAR data. Firstly, risks were divided into dominant risk and recessive risk according to severity of event consequences, and direct risk and contingent risk according to their ten-year average contribution degree so as to obtain flight risk classification of transport aviation. Then, a risk assessment index system and a model were developed. Finally, their rationality was verified with data of actual unsafe events and QAR over-limit events of civil transport aviation of China in 2017. The results show that the evaluation is consistent with safety risk analysis conclusions of 2017 CAAC aviation safety report.

Prediction and assessment of offshore fire resulting from subsea gas release

LI Xinhong, HAN Ziyue, CHEN Guoming

2019, 29(12): 117-122. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.019

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To assess the offshore fire consequence arisen from subsea gas release, the fire consequence prediction and assessment model was established considering the fire scenario caused by the shallow gas blowout in upwind of an offshore drilling platform. The evolution process of fire scenario under wind load was simulated and analyzed. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of high temperature and heat radiation flux generated during fire were predicted. The fire impact on the steel structure of offshore drilling platform and the safety of operators was assessed. The results show that offshore gas fire reaches the steady state at 40 s under the action of wind load, that the steady-state flame nearly covers the whole upper part of offshore platform and the maximum height of flame is about 96 m, that the whole offshore platform is affected by the high temperature of fire and heat radiation, the maximum temperature and radiation intensity on offshore drilling platform are 1 500 ℃ and 539 kW/m² respectively, and that the continuous high temperature and thermal radiation can cause the fracture or collapse of platform steel structure and the serious injury of personnel.

Risk analysis method of FPSO module hoisting and its application

HAN Fang, YU Jianxing, CHEN Haicheng, WU Zhaohui, LEI Yun, LIU Junxiong

2019, 29(12): 123-128. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.020

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In order to improve operation safety of FPSO module hoisting, risk analysis of operation process is carried out by using expert evaluation and FTA. Firstly, basic events were identified as many as possible based on statistical analysis, and a fault tree model was constructed. Secondly, interval 2-tuple theory was introduced to describe uncertain and fuzzy evaluation opinions of experts, and general opinions were aggregated after considering expert weights and similarity between their opinions. Then, high-risk events were identified according to Fussell-Vesely ranking of importance. Finally, with an oil field in South China Sea was as an example, risk analysis of its FPSO module hoisting project was carried out. The results show that its operation process risk ranks between medium and high, and equipment problem proves to be a major high-risk event, which are all consistent with statistical data of accidents, thus verifying rationality of this risk analysis method.

Construction of living and safety support equipment system of systems at disaster sites in alpine and cold regions

GUO Jianhua, CHEN Jian, JIN Hao, PAN Changcheng, QIN Tingxin, WANG Jiwu

2019, 29(12): 129-136. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.021

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In order to ensure life safety at disaster sites and promote construction of equipment system of systems in alpine and cold regions, a construction method was proposed by borrowing ideas from military field and analyzing current situation of emergency equipment in China. With this method, boundary and status quo of living and safety support equipment system of systems, demand objects, support tasks and target capabilities were analyzed, framework was constructed, and key indicators for evaluation were concluded.The results show that emergency rescue workers are the important demand objects and their living and safety support requirements should be clearly demonstrated by considering support tasks and scale.Safety risks in alpine and cold regions mainly come from its plateau climate environment and natural disasters, and in order to control these risks, fifteen target capabilities, such as camping, drinking water, emergency medical rescue, and efficient transportation, as well as two influencing factors named as "environmental conditions" and "disaster types" should be given priority. For evaluation of programs, focus should be put on entirety, structure and composition indicators to ensure that equipment system of systems can meet current and future equipment requirements.

Emergency material allocation in consideration of resource and time window constraints

LYU Wei, LI Zhihong, FENG Manman, MAO Dun, ZHAO Xiangcheng

2019, 29(12): 137-143. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.022

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In view of emergency supply shortage at beginning of disasters, different disaster sites and constrain of time windows, studies were carried out on supply delivery and vehicle path planning. Then, a path scheme generation model of emergency material delivery was constructed based on constraint of comprehensive time windows, aiming at maximizing time and demand satisfaction while taking principle of fairness during rescue taken into consideration. Secondly, demand satisfaction was calculated by using S. Adams' fair theory, and the model was solved with genetic algorithm. Then, based on real cases, results of different fair distribution methods were compared and analyzed to choose the best allocation plan and identify critical segments along delivery paths to ensure smooth transportation. The results show that this model can not only solve problems of emergency materials distribution and vehicle route generation under shortage of materials, but also effectively identify key transportation roads.

Study on evacuation behaviors of primary school pupils considering social relations

MA Yaping, LI Lihua, ZHANG Hui

2019, 29(12): 144-151. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.023

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The primary school pupils in public places are a kind of groups with high risk of casualties. In order to explore the characteristics of evacuation behaviors of primary school pupils, and to analyze the influence of social relations on their followership behaviors in emergency quantitatively, evacuation experiments were carried out for different grades of primary school students. The social network in normal and the followership network in emergency evacuation of students were created and visualized by introducing social network analysis methods. The new methods to calculate influence of social relations on students' followership behavior and to extract the leader during evacuation were proposed. The results show that the influence of social relations on followership behavior of primary school pupils is related to their age and gender, and the influence on high-grade pupils is greater than that on lower-grade pupils, that male pupils are more likely to become leaders, and more leaders may emerge among the lower-grade pupils compared to high-grade pupils by the same amounts, that part of the leaders in emergency are same to opinion leaders in normal circumstance, and that the movement speed as well as personality characteristics of individuals are factors influencing whether he could be a leader.

Multi-modal transport route optimization of emergency relief materials

LIU Song, SHAO Yiming, PENG Yong, XIAO Yunpeng

2019, 29(12): 152-157. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.024

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This research is conducted for the sake of optimizing multi-modal transport routes of emergency relief materials, highway, railway and airway, so as to transport them to disaster-stricken areas in the shortest time. In light of actual situation of multi-modal transport network, firstly, an optimization model of it under time-varying network was constructed with factors taken into consideration, like variation of transshipment time, time limit of railway dispatch, and prohibition time of flight due to weather conditions. Then, an ant colony algorithm was designed. Finally, a case study was carried out. The results show that this model and algorithm can quickly select a transportation plan that will deliver emergency relief materials to disaster-stricken areas in the shortest possible time according to requirements of decision-makers, thus providing necessary support for them.

Scheduling of emergency bottleneck resource considering risk perception and system efficiency

ZHANG Wei, YANG Qin, CAO Cejun, ZHAO Huan, PAN Shiling

2019, 29(12): 158-164. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.025

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To improve rescue efficiency and quality of the emergency response process, risk perception of different types of victims and the efficiency of emergency bottleneck resources need to be considered in research regarding the emergency resource scheduling problem, thereby a reasonable scheduling scheme can be formulated. Firstly, the emergency response stages and types of victims were subdivided, and the emergency resources scheduling problem was described from three aspects: resource environment, task constraints and optimization objectives. Next, the Prospect Theory (PT) was used to characterize the victims' behaviors and construct the risk perception function, and then the 0-1 nonlinear multi-objective integer programming model was established. Furthermore, genetic algorithm was used to simulate the problem, and the computational results were portrayed by Pareto and sensitivity analysis. The results show that in emergency resource scheduling process, considering the risk perception of different types of victims and the efficiency of emergency bottleneck resources can help to reduce victims' risk perception and improve the rescue efficiency and decision-making quality.

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