China Safety Science Journal ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (5): 163-168.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.05.025

• Emergency technology and management • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Group decision-making for earthquake emergency rescue plan based on D-S evidence theory

SONG Yinghua1,2, WU Hao1,2, LIU Dan1,2, WANG Zhe1,2   

  1. 1. China Research Center for Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430070, China;
    2. School of Safety Science and Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430070, China
  • Received:2020-02-25 Revised:2020-04-23 Online:2020-05-28 Published:2021-01-28

Abstract: In order to solve expert preference conflict in group decision of earthquake emergency rescue plan, an expert preference rescue group decision method based on D-S evidence theory is proposed. Firstly, considering execution time, objective attributes of resources and subjective preferences of experts, an improved group decision-making process was designed based on traditional one. Secondly, preference functions considering program execution time and resources were designed with emergency negotiation model a reference, experts' subjective preferences were defined based on triangular fuzzy numbers, and their preferences were synthesized through DS evidence theory for plan selection. Finally, with Jiuzhaigou earthquake in 2017 as an experimental example, method comparison and preference sensitivity tests were carried out. The results show that decision-making scheme which considers execution time and resource preference is more consistent with actual rescue needs than that considering only execution time and resources or that based on triangular fuzzy preference. Moreover, balanced preference of experts is more conducive to choosing a right earthquake emergency rescue plan.

Key words: Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory, earthquake, emergency rescue group decision-making, expert preference, triangular fuzzy number

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